WP is in a critical condition. Should it blame Nokia for not treating it in time?

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Is there any hope for WP?

My opinion is that it is terminally ill.

Why?

This story starts with WP7. At that time, WP was bleak. iOS changed the world as soon as it came out, and Android also received applause after its re-creation. Only WP has a longer history than iOS and Android combined, and its reputation is only slightly better than "hidden in the boudoir and unknown to the world". When people were drinking tea and chatting, they talked about Jobs and Jobs' iOS, Google's Android, and WP? What is that thing? Can it be used as a drink? Microsoft was as anxious as an ant on a hot pot. At that time, the signs of the mobile wave had already begun to emerge. If it didn't make a name for itself, it would be too late. This market is too big to lose, and it can't afford to lose.

No company in the world understands the importance of operating systems better than Microsoft.

Microsoft took two measures. First, improve the level of WP. In the development of operating systems, they are not afraid of any company, even if that company is Apple. Don't forget that Apple was defeated by Microsoft. Second, Microsoft found Nokia. I don't know what benefits they promised, but the former mobile phone leader threw himself into Microsoft's arms in all aspects. This was a stroke of genius, at least at the time. Nokia has rich experience and countless fans. Even if WP is a little worse, as long as it is not so bad that it is unbearable, it will have sales.

Microsoft seems to be able to breathe a sigh of relief.

Then Microsoft made two mistakes.

First, they are complacent. Microsoft did not realize that the business model of selling software directly is outdated. Especially when compared with Android. Moreover, Microsoft's licensing fee is not cheap, 5 to 15 US dollars for a mobile phone. If you use Android, then you can save 5 to 15 US dollars. Of course, it doesn't save much money, Android manufacturers have to pay Microsoft a considerable amount of patent fees. But it is still saving money. The money saved is equivalent to the money earned. Whether you choose Android or WP, the ultimate goal is not to make money.

The guys at Microsoft are inherently inadequate.

Therefore, although many manufacturers produce WP phones, they are not following Microsoft wholeheartedly. They just leave a way out for themselves, so that they will not be too flustered in case Android loses and WP rises in the future. Once Android has established its dominance, they will ruthlessly get rid of Microsoft and discard it like a worn-out shoe. They will not serve WP wholeheartedly. As a result, no WP phone other than Nokia has made a splash. Microsoft knows this very well. It has its wishful thinking. Selling one more WP phone means one more WP user and one less Android user. It doesn't cost a penny for itself, and the market is opened up. There is nothing better in the world.

Second, Windows Phone 7.5 can only be upgraded to 7.8, but not to 8.0. Microsoft has implemented the successful experience on PC, thinking that it is natural to apply the upgrade model that has been very successful on PC to smartphones. In Microsoft's eyes, smartphones are just a dwarf of PCs, which conforms to Moore's Law, Andy-Bill's Law, and Anti-Moore's Law. Indeed, at this point in time, the focus of Android phones or most phones is mobile phones, not intelligence. Making calls, sending text messages, plus a small game and listening to music are all smartphones have. In particular, small games occupy most of the fragmented time, so "Angry Birds" and "Fruit Ninja" are extremely popular. However, a revolution is happening. The focus of smartphones has shifted from mobile phones to intelligence, gradually becoming an extension of life and a part of life.

Smartphones are starting to be different.

PCs with operating systems stuck at XP can still use most software, but smartphones can't. Mobile applications are different from traditional software. They are developed quickly, become popular quickly, and are eliminated quickly. In half a year, or even less than half a year, the popular apps have changed. The most popular apps will only support version 8.0 and above, and will not care about 7.8. 7.8 is a forgotten group. Microsoft has successfully hurt users. At the same time, it has also severely screwed Nokia. Originally, there were not many users left with Nokia. All of a sudden, the loyalty of many users who swore allegiance to Nokia dropped below 60. The next time they choose a mobile phone, they will no longer choose Nokia or WP.

At the same time, Microsoft overestimated Nokia, and Nokia overestimated itself. As mobile phones entered the smart era, only 30% or even less of the skills accumulated over more than ten years were left, and Nokia was defeated.

At this time, even the aunt in charge of hygiene in the company could see that Nokia was not doing well. Why did Ballmer go against all odds and acquire Nokia?

First, there are reasons from Wall Street. "Wall Street sets revenue and profit expectations for each technology company. If a technology company can exceed profit expectations for several consecutive quarters, Wall Street will desperately push up the company's stock price. Since the stock options of technology company employees account for a large proportion of their income, whether a technology company's stock price can grow steadily determines the income and morale of the company's employees. On the contrary, when a company's profits fail to meet expectations, it may be severely suppressed by Wall Street." (Quoted from "The Top of the Wave")

"In order to continue to meet Wall Street's profit expectations, almost all large multinational companies with more than half of the market share have to find new growth points." (Also quoted from "The Top of the Wave")

As mentioned above, Microsoft is well aware of the benefits of operating systems. It has been immersed in this field for decades and has made a lot of money. With the mobile wave coming, mobile operating systems will surely become a new growth point. If Microsoft grasps the mobile operating system, it can thrive for another 20 years. Ballmer will not give up easily. If Nokia is not acquired, then Nokia will definitely switch to Android. There are only a few guys in the WP camp who pretend to obey but actually disobey. Microsoft's huge investment in recent years has gone to waste. There is no place for Microsoft in the mobile operating market anymore.

Therefore, although Microsoft knew that after acquiring Nokia, WP would be like Symbian in Nokia's hands. Nokia wished that other mobile phone manufacturers would adopt its Symbian and be under its control. This is a repeat of history. Manufacturers who do not see the prospects and money and are not working hard will be more perfunctory.

However, apart from acquisition, Microsoft has no other cards to play, and Nokia is not a pushover either. From time to time, there are rumors that it is considering dating Android.

Nokia can get rid of Microsoft, but Microsoft cannot get rid of Nokia. Nokia is the only option for Microsoft to save WP, even if this Nokia is no longer the Nokia that was once popular.

So, the acquisition happened.

As expected, after Microsoft acquired Nokia, its stock price plummeted and its market value evaporated by $12 billion.

Actually, Microsoft still has a chance. Although, in Q3 2013, Android's market share exceeded 80%, it seems to have dominated the market, and Microsoft has no chance. The PC era has proved one thing, that there can only be one operating system, it is a winner-takes-all, it is a zero-sum game, but market share cannot explain everything, traffic is the fundamental embodiment of smartphones. From September 2013 to July 2014, the traffic through Android soared from 29.42% to 44.62%, while the traffic of iOS fell all the way from 53.68% to 44.19% during the same period. From the perspective of traffic, in September 2013, although Android's shipments accounted for more than 80% of the market share, people did not use it as a smartphone, WP still has a chance, Microsoft still has a chance. Technically, although WP7 is a bit of a pitfall, WP8 is still good. Although 7 cannot be upgraded to 8, which makes some people heartbroken, but consumers' hearts are easy to mend, a few band-aids can solve the problem, and when WP has established a firm foothold, they will forget about this period.

Even if it cannot become popular all over the world, it can still make a poor version of Apple. Apple will not lower its status and go low-end.

It’s a pity that Microsoft did not grasp the essence of smartphones.

After stumbling for a while, Microsoft was like a puppy holding its pee and found a telephone pole in the desert. It finally realized that a smartphone that does not generate traffic is not a good smartphone, or even a smartphone. It is just a smartphone, and traffic is the manifestation of a smartphone. How to generate traffic? APP, there are as many APPs as you want in the Microsoft App Store. Although it is improving, it is still not as many as the Apple App Store. Microsoft tried to increase the number of APPs from all sides, but the effect was not good.

Microsoft also waived licensing fees for devices smaller than nine inches.

It is too late to mend the fold after the sheep have been lost. Android has become a trend. Android phones in consumers' hands have already behaved like smartphones. iOS has become increasingly indestructible. Because of Apple's uniqueness, WP's only rival is actually Android. However, at this time, the ecosystem around Android has been established, with a large number of developers and users. Unless there is a revolution, Android will surely remain strong. Innovation is not enough. Microsoft's free service is at best an innovation, but it is only relative to its own innovation. The business model has evolved from charging licensing fees to the same level as Google, free. Catching up with Google's tightening control over Android and striving to evolve itself into the second Microsoft, this seems to be Microsoft's opportunity. But it is too late. Everything has settled.

Yes, Microsoft can invest a lot, but Microsoft has too many profitable departments. If one WP fails, there are still many WPs. It can't burn its boats. The Android camp is different. How many companies and developers can't do without Android? They have formed a huge group, and Android is the only thing in this group. They will go all out to carry Android forward.

Microsoft, by contrast, is a company that is struggling.

To sum up, WP has no chance.