If the Internet and the economy really face a cold winter, I will give you a reassurance pill

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It was a rainy day, so I stayed indoors all day without going out. It was the first time in my life that I experienced a rainstorm in front of a French window. I felt like typing. In addition, I installed a typing tool - tickeys on my notebook in the house today, so I felt like typing. I recorded some thoughts I had during these days.

Alibaba's 2016 campus recruitment cuts

The number of campus recruitments has been reduced from 3,000 to 400, and the monthly salary for campus recruitments has been reduced from 13k to 10k. This is the hottest event in the Internet industry recently. Rumors are rife that the Internet winter is coming.

However, a few months before the reduction in staffing, Alibaba's stock price was sluggish, even falling to $58. I have heard many predictions about the coming of the Internet winter. But I have always believed that as long as it does not trigger an economic crisis, if it is just the Internet industry's winter, then everything is still just a development cycle. After the baptism of the winter, the industry will be healthier. At least, the entrepreneurial environment in the past two years always makes people feel that it is a kind of pathological competition, like an unsustainable arms race.

The harm of malicious order brushing is seriously underestimated

Malicious order-padding is caused by crazy subsidies, which is caused by vicious competition, which is caused by overheated investment. Then the false prosperity created by malicious order-padding promotes overheated investment. This is how a vicious cycle is created. With continuous expansion, every link is afraid of falling behind, and everyone is chasing each other, causing the bubble to grow bigger and bigger. Investors' money is also money. If there is no cold wind to blow, I am afraid it will really be burned to ashes.

The most frightening thing about fake orders is that they are often so fake that even the company bosses cannot know their own turnover, how much is faked and how much is from real users. This leads to blind optimism about the market. Moreover, due to the merger of Didi and Kuaidi, entrepreneurial bosses believe that burning money can burn out the future.

But after all, not all companies are as lucky as Didi and Kuaidi, who encountered the opportunity when Tencent and Alibaba wanted to promote their own payment methods.

If the cold winter really comes, it may not be a bad thing for the Internet industry. At least, the vicious cycle of fake orders mentioned above will stop with the coming of the cold winter. Let each link stop and re-examine its own value.

The value of the Internet

What is the value of the Internet? I think it is efficiency. Internet companies have high efficiency that traditional companies do not have.

Recently, chatting with friends or seniors has made me think about the value of individuals and the value of the Internet. I think it will be difficult for giant companies with a pure Internet model to appear in the future. Ma Huateng defines WeChat as a connector, and the current O2O is also a connector. They all want to connect content and services, and use the efficiency of the Internet to improve the quality of traditional services. The connector itself should rely on efficiency and convenience to gain market share, rather than relying on crude spending to occupy the market. My understanding of Internet startups should be the kind that quietly enters the homes of ordinary people.

However, the impetuousness brought by overheated investment to Internet startups has led to the basic model of startups: burning money on products, crazy subsidies for promotion, and being paralyzed by the increase in users brought by promotion. In terms of technology, it is a human sea tactic, and even the iteration speed of personnel joining and leaving is faster than the iteration speed of products. Anyway, they have money and are willful. And user experience, information-based efficient office, and solving user pain points are all placed in a secondary position. It has become putting the cart before the horse, but it is also a helpless move. The industry is burning money. Whoever does not follow the trend is equivalent to announcing that he has given up. If there is really a cold winter, it is like playing a game against a battle. Only when the money is limited can the level of the operator be reflected. Use limited resources to do the most valuable things. Just like for programmers, the value of programmers will only be highlighted when the machine computing level is limited. Assuming that the hardware resources are now the most abundant, the CPU is the fastest, and the memory is the largest. Then programmers will become like typists and lose their value.

If Internet companies are unable to leverage their efficiency and only know how to spend money to create markets, then the value of Internet companies will be greatly reduced.

If there really is a cold winter

Moderate cold compress is good for your health.