Will VR become the next smart TV?

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At the end of 2015, VR seemed to have attracted unprecedented attention overnight, and there were many video websites among the Internet companies eager to try it out.

Since Baofeng Mojing, video websites with content advantages seem destined to become an important part of the VR field. Judging from the actions of these websites, they seem to be more focused on hardware than content production. Smart TVs have become a derivative of content advantages, but will VR become the next smart TV?

VR's shortcoming lies in content, but its success or failure lies in hardware

Many people have long complained about VR because of the scarcity of content resources, especially in China, where VR content entrepreneurs are still small and scattered, and development platforms such as 87870.com and Gala are still "unknown". Although it will take time to make up for the shortcomings in content, the current situation of VR hardware is still not optimistic. An obvious trend is that VR hardware is interfering with content resources. Even though video websites have inherent advantages in video content, especially LeTV's ecological thinking and Baofeng's "All in VR" strategy, VR hardware is destined to do the same.

Content and hardware seem to be a chicken-and-egg problem. Content developers complain that the popular glasses boxes in China are too bad to inspire them to create high-quality content. Due to compensation and other issues, many developers prefer foreign platforms such as Oculus. It has to be admitted that a large number of VR glasses of various shapes and sizes have appeared in China. Although some manufacturers are working hard to solve the problem of content resources, the resources of almost all platforms are relatively scarce, and the quality is really unacceptable. Baofeng Magic Mirror has three generations, which have successfully raised Baofeng's valuation, but its strength in virtual reality has never been revealed. With so many video websites in love with VR, is there a solution to the dead loop of content and hardware?

Although VR is a stunner in the eyes of many game enthusiasts, and there are indeed many VR entrepreneurs who are eyeing the game field, such as Sony and other game manufacturers, but video will still be the highlight of VR content, and video websites can even make up for the lack of game content through cooperation and acquisition. But the key reason is still: Can these video websites make good VR hardware?

Baofeng is a very important example. Although Baofeng Magic Mirror has been produced for three generations, compared with foreign hardware products, Baofeng can be said to have never entered the door of VR hardware. I remember a senior VR player described the difference between domestic and foreign VR hardware like this: "Sony's VR helmet is really worn on the head, while domestic VR glasses are more or less tied to the head." Of course, there are also high-quality hardware in China. A simple comment can show the difference between mainstream VR hardware at home and abroad. The expectations of video websites for VR are not unrelated to the success of smart TVs.

Can VR devices replicate the trajectory of smart TVs?

The products currently launched by Baofeng and LeTV are VR glasses, and their purpose is still to cultivate users, which is similar to the early TV boxes of smart TVs. From this, it is not difficult for us to understand the wishful thinking of video websites.

Let's first look at some of the more popular VR hardware abroad. The most popular one is the HTC Vive, which has been in development for nearly a year. According to the latest news, this virtual reality helmet is expected to be released in April this year, and the price seems to be around 10,000 yuan. Another one is Oculus's Rift CV1, which is still expected to be priced between US$200-400. Adding the recommended PC configuration (RMB 5,000), the full package is estimated to be around RMB 8,000. Although Sony is very secretive about the specific release date and price of the Project Morpheus helmet, some media still estimate the price to be US$200. However, considering the matching PS4, the overall price will also be around RMB 4,000.

Looking back at China, although VR manufacturers including Lexiang and Dapeng have repeatedly claimed that they have won the important OLED supply in the VR field, the product prices are also quite different from those of foreign products, and the actual sales volume is still not optimistic. It can be seen that the choice of VR glasses by video websites is a helpless and wise move, but VR and smart TVs have completely different backgrounds.

First, VR lacks the user base of TV. Whether it is a TV box or a smart TV, the competition is ultimately about content resources. There is no need to focus too much energy on cultivating user habits, which is fundamentally different from VR. From the current perspective, the role of VR glasses in user cultivation is undoubted, but there is nothing remarkable about the speed of user accumulation and user stickiness. It is still unknown whether video websites can rely on their own platform and traffic advantages to carry the banner of VR development.

Secondly, VR is still far from being a rigid demand. It is an indisputable fact that TV has become an indispensable household appliance, but VR is the favorite of a few players. A positive signal is that many virtual reality movies have been produced, Nokia, GoPro and others have successively launched 360-degree panoramic cameras, and there are more and more core technology developers such as gesture tracking. The outbreak of VR is only a matter of time. Video websites have also followed the trend and launched panoramic channels, and tried panoramic live broadcasts, etc. Even so, how to make VR enter thousands of households directly determines the VR process of video websites. Baofeng and LeTV have to think about this issue.

Third, how to make VR get rid of its limitations. Smart TV is called the fourth screen, but apart from video, advanced applications such as e-commerce, games, and education are not ideal. For video websites, VR faces more serious problems. For example, there are two aspects. One is how to make VR jump out of the video circle. There are more imaginations in the directions of games, social networking, and education. The second is how VR devices will be positioned, whether to replace smart TVs or become accessories for TVs. Foreign VR devices require supporting PCs. Will video websites make smart TVs a supporting device for VR in the future?

As for whether VR can replicate the development trajectory of smart TVs, in one sentence: the road is long and arduous.

Is VR a poison or a cure for video websites?

VR itself is like a blooming poppy flower. Giants such as Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Facebook are all happy to embrace it. In China, there are also reports that Tencent and Xiaomi are entering the VR market. However, for video websites that have not stopped spending money on video copyrights and have a single profit model, is VR a panacea or a poison?

From the positive side, VR has undoubtedly broadened the business scope of video websites, and they can even take the opportunity to enter the game and online live broadcast market. VR is like a blank sheet of paper, with more opportunities for random scribbles, especially for manufacturers like Baofeng Video that have not invested much in video copyrights and whose core businesses are not advantageous, VR is equivalent to a second start-up. In addition, video websites have a large number of advantageous resources such as film and television IPs and video content, and are already mature in directors, celebrity appeals, and content creation. Of course, with their content distribution advantages, it is easy to attract third-party platforms to cooperate in creating VR content. In other words, the content shortcomings of video websites should be lower. If VR is really a general trend, time will always solve the hardware problems of VR. In the capital market where ecology is supreme, the significance of VR lies in its future worth looking forward to. Players with ecological thinking like LeTV are obviously unwilling to miss it.

The disadvantages are also very obvious. VR content is very thin. Although there is fertile land to be cultivated, it still requires huge manpower and energy, and the future of VR is bound to be the survival of the fittest, which means that a large number of VR players will eventually be eliminated. For video websites, LeTV and Baofeng are not the only ones coveting the prospects of VR. The capital investment in the VR field will inevitably affect the investment in existing businesses. Moreover, it is not ruled out that some VR entrepreneurs have a playful mentality. The direction of the entire VR market is still unclear. Today's hardware level is still not suitable for users to watch videos, that is, to experience the feeling of the game through a few demos. The previously popular 3D videos, holographic projections, etc. have all stopped at large-scale commercial use and have become tasteless. Video websites' efforts in VR are more like a gamble to follow the crowd.

The threshold for smart TV is much higher than that for VR. Few entrepreneurs have joined the former, while the latter has become one of the high grounds for mass entrepreneurship. VR has too many uncertainties. Can it make video websites achieve their goals? There is still hope, but the future is uncertain.

Alter, an Internet observer, has long been committed to observing and researching industries such as smart hardware, O2O, and mobile phones.