2020 Marketing Trend Prediction

It seems that every year, articles reviewing marketing talk about how difficult times are, and this year has been particularly difficult, with news of unemployment and layoffs heard everywhere. What will be the marketing trends in 2020? Will life become more difficult for everyone?

Key words for Party A: budget reduction, performance-oriented, refined operations, functional integration, professional evolution

1. Reduce the budget: Don’t spend money that can be spent, and spend money sparingly on what you must spend.

Party A's marketing department has entered a belt-tightening phase this year. One possibility is that the company really has no budget to spend, and being able to survive is a victory; the other possibility is that it has ammunition, but under the overall environment, it needs to save food for the winter and use it economically, even if the marketing fees have been approved, they have to spend them frugally. The principle is to not spend any money that is optional, and to be frugal with the money that must be spent.

In 2020, each company's marketing budget will only be more restrained. From what we know so far about the major Internet companies and start-ups, performance-based advertising and public relations expenses will account for a certain proportion, while brand advertising will be further reduced.

2. Focus on performance: The market also needs to bear the product operation KPI

Now many client marketing departments are gradually turning to this trend. On the one hand, the costs are more concentrated on performance-based advertising, such as application market promotion APP, SMO, DSP, etc. The conversion rate of the products placed here has largely become the KPI of marketers, rather than exposure and Baidu Index.

In 2020, the performance appraisal of marketers will be more stringent. On the one hand, more attention will be paid to the investment-output ratio. The case where a company invested in Weibo KOLs but received no returns this year is unlikely to happen. People who understand know that such investment cannot bring conversions, let alone complete KPIs. At the same time, it will be more closely linked to product operation KPIs , and will closely collaborate in many aspects such as drainage channel selection, conversion rate, use of old users, and APP retention. Instead of simply creating buzz, the premise of everything is to bring volume to the company's products.

3. Refined operations replace large-scale communication campaigns

In 2020, there will be fewer and fewer large-scale communication campaigns. This year, we have rarely seen cases of brand communication through omni-channel saturation attacks, but more focus on penetrating a certain type of channel. For example, beauty brands only focus on Xiaohongshu and Taobao Live; for example, coffee brands only focus on elevator advertising and giving away coupons on WeChat Moments; for example, some self-media teams only focus on distributing short videos. So some of the brands that we can remember are not the big brands like CCTV, but Luckin Coffee, Perfect World, etc.

We used to say that half of the advertising money spent was wasted, but we didn’t know where it was wasted. In fact, this mostly occurs in multi-channel collaboration, and it is difficult to refine the operational indicators. However, in the future, through refined channel operations, there will be comprehensive and clear indicators provided to marketers on the investment of each advertising fee, the specific effects, and how to optimize materials to further improve conversion rates. There will no longer be the problem of not knowing where the advertising fees are spent.

4. Functions are integrated, and the label of marketer becomes more blurred

In the past, when we mentioned the marketing team, we mainly meant providing services for the company’s brand and public relations. In fact, its positioning was still a functional support department, the second party within the first party. However, due to changes in the overall environment and market conditions, the marketing departments of many companies have assumed more complex and diversified roles.

For example, the marketing departments of some companies have begun to incubate products from scratch with the project team. Marketers have their own advantages here, such as product positioning and market research, which will give more ideas for the product; for example, some marketing departments plan and bring more resource projects for operational activities, and optimize cooperation models and benefits through planning and business capabilities; for example, some marketing departments conduct risk control for operational activities to avoid a lot of clean-up situations.
In fact, these are all market-related responsibilities, but only when the environment changes dramatically will the marketing team have the opportunity to participate more deeply in these functions. In the future, the functional labels of the market team will be more comprehensive.

5. Personal professionalism evolves

Correspondingly, the professionalism of marketers will continue to evolve, otherwise they will be eliminated. A notable phenomenon in recent years is that many outstanding advertising and public relations professionals have joined the client side, which is the most direct way to create professional blood.

But this is not enough. Future marketing trends require marketers’ professionalism to continue to evolve, which mainly involves two aspects: being specialized to the end and being specialized in multiple areas. Being specialized to the end requires that no matter you are engaged in Douyin creation, PR writing, or advertising placement, you need to understand the product and be able to produce or control it better than the advertising professionals you cooperate with. This is the core value. Being specialized in many ways requires being proficient in the entire chain, understanding strategies, being able to write copy, being able to publish articles, and being able to write for self-media.

We have long passed the stage where marketing people can do well just by writing PPTs. In 2020, the continuous evolution of professionalism will be a major trend.
In 2020, marketers may face pressure to reduce budgets, focus on performance, and streamline operations, and will also face higher requirements for the integration of functions and the evolution of professionalism. Only by continuously improving the value of individuals and the marketing department can we ensure that we will not be marginalized or even laid off.

Correspondingly, the situation may be even worse for the second-party advertiser.

Party B’s keywords: Pressure on large platforms, continued rise of hot store MCNs, channel centralization, verticalization of screen-sweeping, and intensified cross-border competition.

6. Large platforms are under pressure and costs are further compressed

Large advertising companies or public relations companies such as 4A will face even more severe challenges.

On the one hand, there will be fewer and fewer parties that can afford high monthly fees. Even if there is sufficient funding, the demand for suppliers will become more sophisticated and complex. The high monthly fees, multi-team coordination, and slightly bloated service processes of 4A and other companies all directly affect the fees paid by Party A. On the other hand, the continued rise in labor costs and the continuous loss of talent have always impacted companies such as 4A.

This year, we learned that some leading companies that never participated in competitions in the past are now participating in competitions, some of which are even for projects with low competition fees. This is by no means an accidental phenomenon. As their advantages are gradually eroded and the client's service fees are reduced, the difficulties faced by 4A companies will continue. Especially considering that the public relations leader Blue Label has been repeatedly named on 315, Party A's professional trust in 4A and other companies is also at a historical low.

7. Strong and popular stores and MCNs have more opportunities

While large platforms are under pressure, powerful creative hot stores and MCNs will have better development opportunities in 2020.

Taking MCN agencies as an example, agencies with trend and channel advantages basically have huge demand at present. Trend advantage refers to the fact that the channel is in the bonus period , such as Taobao Live, Xiaohongshu, and Douyin. These channels in the traffic bonus period are more popular than Weibo or even official accounts in current demand and subsequent bonus period; channel advantage is to have core first-hand resources, such as Li Jiaqi, Viya, or Douyin's top accounts.

Secondly, whether it is a creative hot shop or an MCN agency, it is necessary to have its own creative ability, which is the key to going further. We have seen that many existing public accounts or Weibo channel operators are transforming into short video MCNs. They may gain some business by making accounts in batches, but in reality, they have no core competitiveness in the long run.

8. Further concentration of top channels

The total amount of user attention is limited, and channel concentration will further intensify in 2020.

From the perspective of channels, Taobao Live continues to experience an increase in traffic : this year’s biggest surprise also proves that live streaming is not a false proposition, but it is indeed not something that can be achieved by pure live streaming platforms, and the bonus period will continue in 2020; short video platforms: specifically Douyin and Kuaishou, especially Kuaishou’s ability to bring goods, may have a more impressive outbreak after the Spring Festival, as for Tencent’s own Weishi, it is still not optimistic; other channels do not see any upward momentum for the time being;

Channels in a stable traffic period: WeChat official account: Judging from the revision of the official account this year, it is indeed facing various reading pressures, but even so, the overall traffic is still very considerable. In the absence of obvious revisions, it is judged that the trend is stable; Xiaohongshu: After a period of traffic explosion, Xiaohongshu is not expected to have a large traffic explosion in 2020 due to the removal of the platform and the diversion of beauty advertisers by Taobao Live; Bilibili: The KOLs of Bilibili are still of high quality so far, but they are relatively niche and considering the expected commercial demand, advertisers are unlikely to expect a big explosion;

Weibo is a platform in a period of traffic decline : users have limited time, and it has to be admitted that Weibo is increasingly becoming a platform that focuses on celebrity gossip and hot topics. The traffic value to advertisers continues to decline, and the transformation of many Weibo MCN agencies also indirectly verifies this; most performance-based advertisements: such as Baidu's SEM and DSP, and Tencent's advertising share, have been strongly impacted by short videos, and the traffic trend may be relatively low. This area is more likely to be divided equally in the future.

From the perspective of KOLs, the head-focus effect will be more obvious. The top 10% of KOLs are likely to receive 90% of the advertising demands. After all, practice has proved that although top KOLs are costly, their investment-output ratio is higher. Selecting multiple mid-level KOLs with the same cost may have a worse effect. This year's KOC concept is more like a false proposition. It is not so easy to act like a rogue without spending money.

9. Vertical fields will have a higher screen refresh rate

Dominating a certain field or channel will be the tone of communication in 2020, while dominating all channels will become increasingly rare.

On the one hand, there will be fewer and fewer brand communications like OFO that signed spokespersons and spent money on all platforms. On the other hand, the differentiation of channels makes it difficult to cover a large audience in one communication. And screen-sweeping in a certain field or channel will become more and more common. For example, the explosion of "Wild Wolf Disco" on the short video platform, and the spread of Jing Hanqing's rights protection on Bilibili, etc.

What advertisers need to consider at this time is how to find specific channels or specific professional fields suitable for service brands within limited resources, and carry out targeted planning and communication.

10. Competition is not limited to advertising companies

Today's competitors are no longer limited to competition between advertising and public relations companies, but are showing a cross-border competition trend, which will become more and more obvious in 2020.

Advertising companies now even face direct competition from their own service providers, technology and Internet companies. For example, Toutiao’s advertising delivery platform, Bytedance, is more comprehensive than most advertising companies’ own analysis systems and can even provide more effective assistance to the client.

Therefore, in addition to their existing set of standards, advertising companies need to have more professional capabilities such as data analysis if they want to win in the complex competitive landscape.

Only advertisers who provide clients with value beyond their expectations and keep up with the development of the times can have a good life in 2020 and even in the future, and this should be the foundation of advertising companies.

In conclusion, this is indeed the worst era for both Party A marketers and Party B advertisers. From corporate business competition to personal value realization, they are facing unprecedented difficulties; but this is also the best era. Companies and individuals who are professional and match the competitive environment will have more room to play.

We have anxieties and challenges, but we should not be afraid of them. Let’s work together in 2020!

Author: Lao Nie

Source: Lao Nie talks about brands (ID: laoniedushu)