How to conduct refined operations based on the user life cycle?

According to the user life cycle, users can be divided into new users, inactivated users, active users, silent users, and churned users . The specific logical relationship is shown in Figure 1-1.

Figure 1-1 Logical relationship between different user categories

If a new user has not placed an order for a long time, he/she will become an inactivated user. If a new user has placed an order, he/she will become an active user. If an active user has not placed an order for a period of time, he/she will become a silent user. If a silent user places an order recently, he/she will become an active user again. If a silent user has not placed an order for a long time, he/she may be churned. If a churned user places an order recently, he/she will become an active user again.

• A new user is a user who has registered within N days and has made 0 payments. For example, a new user can be set to be a user who has registered within 30 days and has made 0 payments.
• An inactive user is a user whose registration time is greater than N days and whose payment times are 0. For example, an inactive user can be set as a user whose registration time is greater than 30 days and whose payment times are 0.
• An active user is a user whose payment times are greater than 0 in the last M days. For example, an active user can be set as a user whose payment times are greater than 0 in the last 15 days.
• Silent users are users who have made payments greater than 0 and have not placed an order for more than M days and less than or equal to Q days. For example, silent users can be set as users who have made payments greater than 0 and have not placed an order for more than 15 days and less than or equal to 30 days.
• Churned users are users whose payment times are greater than 0 and who have not placed an order for more than Q days. For example, churned users can be defined as users whose payment times are greater than 0 and who have not placed an order for more than 30 days.

Through these definitions, we can conclude that the total number of users is equal to the sum of new users, inactivated users, active users, silent users, and lost users; different methods should be used to operate non-paying users and paying users, and the calculation formulas for the two are as follows.

Non-paying users = new users + inactive users

Paying users = active users + silent users + lost users

First, check the overall situation of users, as shown in Figure 1-2, to understand how many users there are in total, how many non-paying users there are, and how many paying users there are; understand how many new users and inactivated users there are among non-paying users; understand how many active users, silent users, and churned users there are among paying users.

Figure 1-2 User life cycle analysis

Then, check the changes in user status every day, as shown in Figure 1-3, to understand how many new users become inactive users, how many new users become active users, how many inactive users become active users, how many active users become silent users, how many silent users become active users, how many silent users become churned users, and how many churned users become active users again.

Figure 1-3 Changes in user life cycle

From this chart, we can see that the focus of our operations should be to convert users in other states into active users, and to keep active users from converting to other states as much as possible. To this end, we need to label each user accordingly.

If a new user places an order, we must conduct quality inspection on the goods he purchased. If the goods are supplied by a supplier, the supplier will also see that this user is a new user placing an order for the first time. We also require suppliers to inspect the goods purchased by new users to ensure that the new user's first purchase experience is relatively good.

• For active users, when their order amount and frequency reach a certain level, they will be included in our VIP membership list. The higher their order amount, the higher their benefits.
• For inactivated and silent users, we will ask customer service to make regular follow-up visits to investigate the reasons why users did not place orders.
• We usually no longer carry out targeted operations for lost users because, according to our definition, the cost of recovering lost users is relatively high.

Finally, the data center should also provide a detailed list of users to the operator, as shown in Table 1-4.

Table 1-4 Active user silence probability

For inactivated users, we can calculate which users are high-potential based on their behaviors (such as visiting products, adding products to cart, adding products to favorites, etc.); for active users, we can calculate which users are at high risk of becoming silent based on their visit frequency; for silent users, we can calculate which users are at high risk of churn; this can help operations staff to operate in a more personalized and targeted manner.

Interlude

I once read a very touching sentence: Long-termism is an amplifier of weak signals. How do you understand this sentence?

Huazi started writing original articles formally two years ago, and has written 85 original articles so far. These articles have enabled Huazi to meet many friends and also helped many friends.

These articles are like weak signals that Andy sends to the world. I don’t pursue a certain article to be a hit. I just hope that some people will read Andy’s article by chance, think it’s good, and then read his other articles and tell his friends that the articles written by this person are pretty good.

Time is the amplifier of these signals. I believe that more people will know Andy in ten years.

This is an era of collective awakening. Everyone has the opportunity to let more people know you as long as you insist on producing valuable content.

Author: Wilton Dong Chaohua

Source: Wilton Dong Chaohua