When will the 2020 global epidemic end? How long will it last?

The new coronavirus is currently breaking out across the globe, with South Korea, Italy, Iran, Japan and other regions suffering from the worst outbreaks. With the advent of this epidemic, a large amount of losses have been caused. So, when will the 2020 global epidemic end? How long will it last?

1. When will the 2020 global epidemic end?

The SARS outbreak lasted for eight months, from December 2002 to July 2003. This epidemic broke out in almost the same month as SARS. Although the mortality rate is low, it is more contagious, there are more patients, and the duration may be far longer than 8 months.

During the SARS outbreak in 2003, 5,327 people were confirmed infected in China, with 349 deaths; 8,096 people were confirmed infected worldwide, with 774 deaths. The epidemic is mainly concentrated in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore. There are very few cases in other countries and there has been no global outbreak.

But currently, as of March 2020, 78,064 people have been confirmed infected with the novel coronavirus in China, 2,715 people have died, and the number of confirmed cases worldwide has exceeded 100,000, showing a global spread.

It seems that the global epidemic will not end until at least July 2020, and at the latest October 2020.

2. How long will the global epidemic last?

Zhong Nanshan said that the global epidemic is estimated to continue until at least June. The focus of prevention and control of the new coronavirus will shift from output to input.

III. Current status of major epidemic-affected countries

1. Italy issues emergency lockdown decree

From 00:00 on March 7 to 00:00 on March 8, there were 1,332 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Italy, the cumulative number of confirmed cases has increased to 6,012, and the cumulative number of deaths has reached 233.

The Italian government has issued an emergency lockdown decree: the Lombardy region will be completely locked down, and the lockdown ban will also apply to 11 provinces including Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Reggio Emilia, Rimini, Pesaro and Urbino, Venice, Padua, Treviso, Asti and Alessandria. The decree will last until April 3.

2. New York State declares a state of emergency

As of 6 p.m. Eastern Time on March 7, a total of 445 positive cases of COVID-19 and 19 deaths have been reported in the United States.

New York Governor Cuomo announced that there are 76 confirmed cases of new coronavirus pneumonia in New York State. Ten of them are being treated in hospitals, while the rest are in isolation at home. At the same time, a state of emergency was officially declared throughout the state. Cuomo said that after declaring a state of emergency, the New York State government will be able to mobilize more medical resources and manpower to make up for the large amount of manpower required for mandatory and voluntary isolation.

3. Iran launches COVID-19 self-diagnosis system

Iran reported on March 7 that on March 6, there were 1,076 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Iran, a total of 5,823 confirmed cases and 145 deaths.

All universities and primary and secondary schools in Iran will be on holiday until March 19, 2020, and the entrance examinations for master's and doctoral students will be postponed; the Ministry of Health asks the public not to use the holidays to travel. The Iranian Ministry of Health has launched a self-diagnosis system for COVID-19. People can fill out an online questionnaire and provide their mobile phone number, and then receive text messages about their health status.

4. Number of confirmed cases in other countries

In addition to Italy, other European countries with confirmed cases include Germany with 799 cases; Spain with 500 cases; the United Kingdom with 206 cases; Switzerland with 268 cases; Sweden with 161 cases; Norway with 147 cases; the Netherlands with 188 cases; Belgium with 169 cases; Austria with 79 cases; and Iceland with 50 cases.

In addition to China, Japan and South Korea, three countries in Asia with more severe epidemics, there are also Singapore with 138 confirmed cases and 90 cured; Thailand with 50 confirmed cases, 31 cured and 1 death; Malaysia with 93 confirmed cases and 23 cured; Kuwait with 61 confirmed cases; Bahrain with 85 confirmed cases; Vietnam with 18 confirmed cases; India with 34 confirmed cases and 3 cured; Iraq with 54 confirmed cases; UAE with 45 confirmed cases; Israel with 21 confirmed cases; and Oman with 16 confirmed cases.

In Oceania, Australia has confirmed 63 cases; New Zealand has confirmed 5 cases.