Products and operations in the next five years
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There is a question on Zhihu: As an Internet person, do you think it is more promising to develop products or to work in operations in the next five years? I'm currently in the process of summarizing and reviewing things, so I'm very interested in this question and will post my answer here. This is just my personal opinion. As the old saying goes, this is what I wrote, just read it and don't think too much about it. This is how I understand the problem: 1) All discussions are centered around the larger context of “the next five years” 2) We live in a society of division of labor and cooperation. Whether the role of division of labor is important depends on the factors that affect the division of labor 3) Productivity determines production relations, and productivity on the Internet is technology. Therefore, the changes in division of labor factors will be determined by the combined influence of technology, economy and culture. So, I will talk about my thoughts according to the following logic, which is quite long: 1. What will happen to China’s Internet from 2016 to 2021? 1) The development of mobile phone technology has driven the development of mobile Internet and triggered the enlightenment movement of China's mobile Internet . Seven years have passed from 2009 to 2016. During these seven years, the pillar of China's Internet development has been the development of this technology. Today, seven years later, mobile phone technology has entered a period of weakness and new technologies have entered a period of gestation. Whether it is VR , new wearable devices, or even the development of big data, there is still uncertainty. Technology itself does not have commercial value, but it is indeed the source of commercial value. China's Internet is currently at the stage of handover between old and new technologies. The old technology-driven economy is becoming weak, and the new technology has not yet formed a driving force. 2) The development of China's Internet products has undergone an important transformation in the past 10 years, turning many professions into common sense. Ten years ago, everyone talked about UCD, UX, and said not to let users think. What everyone is constantly discussing is how to make a good interaction and how to use user scenarios to solve problems. Ten years later, the popularization of these contents has been completed, and many things that seemed unacceptable before have become common sense. For example, we need to be simpler, focus on core functions, and create an MVP. WeChat has made an indelible contribution to this. The growth of WeChat has played a greater role in the popularization of Internet product design than all Chinese designers and product managers in the past 10 years. After popularization, there are generally two directions: more professional or less professional. Now China’s Internet product designers and product managers are living in such an embarrassing situation. Inevitably, product design has become a labor-intensive industry. 3) Competition in China's Internet will gradually return to competition in the essence of business, from competition for ideas to competition for traffic. Of course, we cannot say that the previous competition was not competition in the essence of business. It was, but not as thorough as it is now. The first 10 years of the entire Chinese Internet market was a game of harvesting rice. What is the core of rice harvesting? It depends on who can harvest faster and then turn the rice into rice. The current situation is that the rice that is easy to harvest has been almost harvested, and some of the rice that has been harvested more has entered the stage of being turned into rice. New entrants either have to look for the little remaining rice or sell the rice they have harvested to wealthy families. This is a loose explanation for why there have been so many merger cases in recent years. In summary, from the three aspects of technology, market, and expertise, the next five years will be a very uncertain transition period. The basic features are as follows: 1) There will be a low and stable period of about 3 years. No major new technologies will be applied, and everyone will rely on the application of existing technologies to carry out in-depth operations. 2) The division of labor between product and operations has led to a more difficult exploration period for product work. Because it is more difficult to make good products at this stage, a large number of product managers who have previously taken advantage of the wind will fall after the wind dies down. 3) Based on the above two points, naturally, operations will play an important role in the next three years or so. This is caused by the times. 2.5 years is too long, I only dare to think about 3 years. The question is about the next five years. Five years is too long to measure an industry that has made Moore's Law invalid. I only dare to think about three years. Looking ahead to the next three years, I have the following thoughts: 0) The Internet will become a new labor-intensive industry, but technology will eventually become the new dominant 1) Operations will become the dominant role for the reasons listed above 2) The division of labor between product and operation is becoming increasingly blurred, and a new role will emerge, called product operation . Any company that continues to have a clear distinction between products and operations will be under tremendous pressure to improve its operational efficiency. This role that combines product and operation will become a new position that most companies are vying for. This position requires not only an understanding of the business, but also an understanding of the product, as well as an understanding of communication and coordination. 3) The position of product manager will be increasingly criticized until product managers themselves start to move towards a more professional path or a more integrated path. 4) 1985 became a watershed year for those working in the Internet industry. People born before 1985 will be eliminated in large numbers, while those born in the 1990s and 2000s will come up with a completely new set of ideas in a way that they cannot understand. 3. I am a pessimist. No matter you are in product, operation, business, or R&D, we should all know more about other roles. We should all start paying more attention to things outside the internet. The Internet has brought a lot of illusions to the generation born in 1985, which is harmful. Mobile application product promotion service: APP promotion service Qinggua Media advertising Author of this article@ kentzhu is compiled and published by (APP Top Promotion). Please indicate the author information and source when reprinting! |
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