How to apply "system thinking" in operational work?

The principle of systems thinking itself is relatively simple, and the important thing is that it requires a lot of repeated practice. Operators have plenty of opportunities to practice. I hope that from now on, systems thinking will become a powerful tool for you to improve your operations!

There is a particularly exciting scene in " The Advisors Alliance " where Zhuge Liang led 100,000 Shu troops to confront Sima Yi's 200,000 Wei troops. The powerful Wei army could have won a great victory, but Sima Yi did not fight and instead ordered a defense. Why don't you fight when you clearly have the advantage? Sima Yi understood that if the Shu army ran an expedition to Wei and ran out of food and grass, they would not be able to hold out for more than a month. The internal forces of Shu would inevitably surge, and they would retreat at that time. What was the point of fighting?

While we marvel at the resourcefulness of the "operation master" Sima Yi, a question also arises: Why is it that what we see is always the "Shu army" at the gates of the city, while the "Sima Yis" see the situation outside the battlefield? In fact, Sima Yi’s strategy is a more advanced way of thinking: systems thinking. System thinking is a way of thinking that looks at problems from a holistic and global perspective. The opposite is the way of thinking that only looks at the local and single cause and effect.

Maybe you will say, isn’t this just a simple truth of “looking at problems more comprehensively”? The principle is indeed simple, but when we truly understand and master this way of thinking, it will help us deal with a series of complex operational problems. And the value of this more basic thinking is far greater than we imagine. Huang Youcan recently mentioned in "Anxiety is everywhere + the professional environment is turbulent, my three suggestions for everyone in 2018":

In this era, "career" is unstable, but there are some skills that, as long as you learn and master them, no matter how the professional environment changes, you will be able to stay at the top of the value chain and make yourself more valuable.
System thinking is one of those “capabilities” that can deal with a variety of complex problems and is worth learning and mastering by every operator. So how should we use systems thinking and practice it deliberately?

1. Focus on three elements: input, system, and output.

The simplest example is a calculator. When we press “1+1=” it is “input”, the calculation process of the calculator is the system, and the “2” that finally appears on the screen is “output”. Assuming we are the user role, we don’t need to care about the calculation process of the calculator at this time, we just need to use it. And suppose we are the designers of a calculator, in order to achieve this result. We need to study how it is achieved and open the box of the "system" to see what it is made of.

A calculator is just a simple system, and operations work often involves more complex systems. This model can help us find the entry point to the problem, and is illustrated by two cases.

Case 1: How to plan an event?

We can first draw a schematic diagram of "output, system, input", draw a little man at the input end, write "activity" on the system in the middle, and draw a smiling little man at the output end. At this point we can think about what a user’s final feelings and behaviors are after going through this activity? Is it because they think it is a good deal and are willing to buy it, like "grab JD.com coupons", or is it because they think it is very interesting and are willing to forward it, like " Alipay's annual keywords "? Then open it layer by layer in the system to see what is inside? In other words, how to design activities so that users become the output end? Use this as a starting point for event planning .
Case 2: How to analyze the reasons for data decline?

Take the app store in smart TV as an example. This is also a case I have personally experienced.

One time when I was compiling the weekly report, I found that the key data of the app store (total downloads) showed a downward trend from week to week. At this time, we habitually check whether there is a problem with the recommended content or a functional problem, and found that neither of them can be the main reason for the decline.

So how do we find the reason? The result of the decline in key data can be used as output, and the product-related actions in the recent period can be used as input, such as operational updates, product iterations, bug records, etc., and then checked one by one (or the most likely factors can be prioritized). It was finally discovered that it was related to product iteration and caused by a change in a certain entry. Although the problem has not been solved yet, the entry point can be found quickly.

2. Focus on three elements in the system: elements, relationships, functions,

The three-element model of systems thinking helps us find the entry point into the problem, and the final destination is to open the system layer by layer to see what is inside. Only then can we take further action. So what exactly is the system and what is the correct way to open it?

Anything that can be viewed as a whole can be considered a system, such as a product, an event, a course, a meeting, etc. A system consists of three elements: elements, relationships, and functions.

Element: refers to the basic unit that constitutes a system. For example, a calculator is composed of a screen, buttons, components, etc.
Relationship: The relationship between elements. For example, a calculator requires that the elements be organized according to a certain relationship, and each button must have corresponding content presented on the screen.
Function: refers to the function presented by this system. For example, a calculator can be used to calculate.
When facing a system, we need to open it layer by layer. The specific steps are:

What elements are included in this system?
What is the relationship between the elements?
Based on 1 and 2, what functions does the system ultimately present?
Case: Based on what I wrote before, "How to quickly and effectively develop a reliable operational plan when taking over a new project?" 》 as an example, when we took over a new project - a shopping mall, how could we quickly find the key points of the new project? My thoughts are as follows:

What are the key elements in the entire business?
What is the relationship between these elements?
Which elements and relationships need operators’ attention and promotion? To ensure the basic operation of shopping business.
The specific analysis of the mall business is as follows:

The business includes key elements such as users, shopping malls, operations, commerce, partners (merchants), etc.
Their general relationship can be represented by drawing a business process diagram. As shown above.
It is found that in addition to regular basic operations (updates, delisting, etc.), you also need to pay attention to:
Can users successfully enter the mall and place orders?
Does the partner deliver goods to users in a timely manner? If after-sales problems arise, can its solutions satisfy users?
What is the settlement status between partners and businesses? Is it consistent with the data you have? If there is inconsistency, what could be the problem?
Once you understand the three elements of a system, you can break down the system layer by layer and find the key points of the problem.

3. First-order changes and second-order changes.

In his book Change: Principles of Problem Formation and Solving, Paul Watzlawic, professor of psychiatry at Stanford University, mentions a more advanced use of systems thinking. There are two ways things can change:

First-order changes: changes that do not affect the original pattern. Changes within the system, change the state.
Second-order change: change the original pattern. Changes to the system change the results.
For example, in an automatic transmission car , you cannot reach the required speed just by pressing the accelerator. For example, if two people are arguing, and one of them points out that the other is being unreasonable and absurd, this will not resolve the conflict, but may make the argument worse. These are first order changes, making changes only within the system.

If you want to accelerate the car to the required speed, you need to change gears and then accelerate. To resolve a conflict between two people, both parties need to understand each other's views and feelings. These are all second-order changes, and second-order changes are the key to breaking the deadlock.

Case: What should we do if the mall business is developing slowly?

The smart TV shopping mall that I am in charge of has indeed seen improvements in various data over a period of time after I took over, but the growth of key data is extremely slow. Even though I put more effort into optimizing the mall, I couldn't change the stagnant data. So how can we break the deadlock?

Through research, it was found that the users covered by the mall business are usually middle-aged people, who spend more time using TV than younger users. And they are more willing to accept the simple method of ordering goods by phone. On the contrary, the number of young groups covered is always not very large. Even if I optimize the existing mall in time and stick to the first-order changes, there will be no substantial breakthrough.

Later, the question I focused on was no longer "How can I increase the revenue of the current mall?" but changed to "How can I increase the revenue of the shopping business?" After the second-order change, I found more growth points for the business, such as:

Explore the products and purchasing methods preferred by young users.
Expand more merchants and adopt new models such as group buying to attract more new users.
It overcomes the limitations of TV and mobile terminals and allows you to place orders even without turning on the TV.
When breaking through the first-order changes, you will find that there will be more ways to make second-order changes.

How can we deliberately practice this kind of high-level thinking in our daily operations? Based on the principles of deliberate practice, I would like to give you a few suggestions:

When facing all problems, use systems thinking to analyze them as much as possible. There are a large number of complex problems to be faced in operational work. We can try our best to return the problems to the model of system thinking, such as distinguishing which are inputs and which are outputs? What are the elements within the system and what are the relationships between them?
Communicate your ideas with your leader more often. Our superiors generally have a higher perspective than us and can see larger systems than we do. When we propose a plan, we need to observe what they think? What are some things you didn’t expect? Applying their ideas to systems thinking often leads to seeing a larger system.
Keep a reflective journal. This is what I am currently doing every day. I write a reflection log before leaving get off work every day. I choose the most important thing I dealt with that day and see if I can explain and analyze it using a systems thinking model.
The above are some of my thoughts on systems thinking in my operations work. In fact, this kind of thinking is used in a wide range of fields. I have only interpreted a small part of it that is applicable to operational work. Many scholars will have more in-depth research and interpretation of system thinking. If you want to know more, the following related books are for your reference: "The Fifth Discipline", "System Thinking", "The Logic of Failure", "Change - Principles of Problem Formation and Solving", etc.

The principle of systems thinking itself is relatively simple, and the important thing is that it requires a lot of repeated practice. Operators have plenty of opportunities to practice. I hope that from now on, systems thinking will become a powerful tool for you to improve your operations!

The author of this article @Awei compiled and published by (Qinggua Media). Please indicate the author information and source when reprinting!

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