4 modules, a brief analysis of "New User"

In this article, I will explain "new additions" to you so that you can understand the various dimensions of new users.

In addition to the new data added every day, what other knowledge points are there? I analyze it from the following 4 modules:

1. New definitions
2. Source of new users
3. Factors affecting the addition of
4. Added value

1. New definitions

• New users: Users who use the APP for the first time are new users, and the IMEI or account number will be used as the basis.
• New data: According to the analysis needs of operations , it can be divided into daily additions, weekly additions, and monthly additions.

New statistical methods for different products:

• Application: The first time to connect to the Internet, there is 1 new user with recorded device information.
• Stand-alone game : When connecting to the Internet for the first time, the device information is recorded for 1 new user.
• Online games : based on the registered account. If two accounts are registered with one mobile phone, it is counted as two new accounts, so there is a concept of rolling server in online games.

The difference between new additions and activations: If the product does not have an account system, the new data is equal to the activation data; if the product has an account system, the new data is less than the activation data. There will be loss from activation to registration, resulting in activation data being greater than new data. Operators should determine whether the new data is activation data or registration data based on the nature of their own products.

2. Sources of New Users

Companies that develop apps worry about two things every day: one is how to attract new users, and the other is how to monetize the users once they have arrived. Based on the comparison of user sources of applications and games, new users mainly come from two major sources: application market and purchasing volume .

• Application market: The application market is the main source of new users. After the APP is developed, the first thing is to put it on all channels, Android and IOS. IOS is the Apple store, and the listing process is more complicated. Compared with the single Android channel , it is easier to maintain. There are many Android channels. The first-tier ones include App Store , 360, Baidu, and Hardcore. There are also second-tier and third-tier ones, but all together they are less than fifty.
• Buying traffic: The scale of the application market is limited, in order to import more users. For example, online games will be imported by purchasing traffic. Buying traffic mainly involves placing information flow ads and paying per click . The advantage is that you can quickly increase the volume in a short period of time. The game itself has a life cycle. After harvesting a batch of users, you can continue to develop the next one. Therefore, the big spenders on buying volume are all games. There are also some apps that have financing needs and will buy traffic, which is unstable.

3. Factors Affecting New Additions

1. Increase conversion rate

The first factor that affects new additions is conversion rate, which is the first thing that operators need to optimize after putting the APP on the market. The conversion rate directly affects the cost of acquiring customers. For example, if we look at the user registration process, there are several steps: click the ICON, browse the details page, click the download button, download complete, installation complete, open, register. If the conversion rate of any step is too low, it will affect the final conversion. Normally, the conversion rate from clicking the ICON to registration is around 30%. If it is lower than this, it is necessary to analyze the conversion rate of each link. However, there is a problem. The channel does not provide data for each link above. The operators need to test the process themselves to find problems.

Previously, the conversion rate of one of our tool apps was less than 20%, around 15%, which was far below the normal level. Starting from the conversion of each link, we found that the conversion rate from completed download to completed installation was extremely low. After some calculations, I felt that there was a problem with the adaptation, so I exported the newly added models and asked the business department to pick up the soap a few times. I got the data of the models that had been downloaded from the channel, and after comparison, I found the problem at once. The download volume of one of the models was very large, but there were almost no new ones. After optimizing this model, the new conversion rate returned to normal.

2. Recommended

Recommendation here refers to resource recommendations to increase product exposure . For example, Android channels can provide benefits and exchange resources, and the new data after obtaining the recommended position often increases significantly. You can also pay to purchase advertising space , which is usually charged on a daily basis. If the product conversion rate is not good or the product is not popular, it is recommended not to buy it. Apps like finance and cars have a narrow audience. Even if you buy advertising space, the new data will not be much, and the users who come may not be accurate.

If it is an online game, the situation is different. Online games are based on profit sharing. From the perspective of channel operation, in order to maximize the revenue from advertising space, they will recommend the most popular and profitable games. If our game is profitable, the channel will still recommend it even if it does not cost money. This is the case with Honor of Kings . When I was doing channel operations, I had never been involved in the business of Honor of Kings, but that didn't stop me from giving my best resources to this game and making a lot of money.

3. Natural cycle

The natural cycle is from the perspective of natural additions. The addition of APPs is also cyclical, depending on the nature of the product. For example, tools are aimed at young people around 20 years old, and the new curve increases significantly during weekends, Spring Festival, winter and summer vacations. I was in charge of the operation of an APP when I first took over in March. After I took over, the daily new additions and daily active users dropped sharply. I couldn’t find the reason after a week of searching. From the analysis of conversion rate, user feedback, and function usage, there was no abnormality in the data, but the new additions and daily active users decreased, almost halved. Later, we used technology to export the data for the same period last year, and the trend was almost the same. We concluded that it was caused by external factors such as the end of the Spring Festival. If the reason is not found out, people will be blamed for no reason.

Winter and summer vacations will have an impact on the products, so we just need to keep this in mind. In daily work, we need to pay attention to the weekend. Most apps will have a lot of new data on weekends, but very little on Mondays. If you find that the data has not increased over the weekend, then there must be a problem. We have seen the same situation with new additions on Saturday and Friday before. We quickly investigated the cause and found that the new version submitted on Friday had a bug, which caused the user to crash after opening it. After the fix, the new additions on Sunday returned to normal. The corresponding new public accounts , for example, the new fans of my personal public account, are just the opposite of the new APPs, with the most from Monday to Friday and the least on weekends. So, I came to a conclusion: students who work in operations don’t like to study on weekends!

4. External promotion

External promotion will also affect new changes. For example, a few days ago, Wang Sicong promoted an APP on Weibo . The number of people online for this APP that day was over 200,000, which is evident from the new data. External promotion tests a company’s capital strength and creative ability. If there is no capital, advertising cannot be funded. If the creative ability is insufficient, no conversion will be generated even after the investment. The biggest disadvantage of external promotion is that it is impossible to accurately evaluate the effect. Regarding the sentence Wang Sicong posted on Weibo mentioned above, if users go to Apple, 360 and other channels to download, and assuming that the channel also makes recommendations on that day, it is impossible to determine whether the user came through the channel recommendation or after seeing the advertisement.

The increasing cost of buying traffic has given rise to this kind of gameplay, which is to advertise heavily in print media and new media , such as Pinduoduo. The role of the channel is just a closing point. When placing advertisements on TV, the time is fixed. For example, the advertisements will be broadcast at 9 o'clock. The new data in the data background will have a peak at 9 o'clock. As an operator, you must be very clear about the advertising plan, so that when you encounter a surge in new data, you will know the reason.

5. Product sharing

Product sharing is the lowest cost way to add new products, and it also has higher quality. Take the recently popular bonus-sharing game for example. Invite your friends to get a resurrection card, which will save you the chance of answering a question incorrectly. There were several times when I answered the first few questions correctly but got the last one wrong, and I got the bonus because I had a resurrection card. In order to get more resurrection cards, I will ask my friends to fill in my invitation code. These friends participated in the game, and in order to share the prize money, they also invited their friends. In two days, the number of people answering questions online increased from 100,000 to 700,000. It was a terrifying fission.

By inducing users to attract other users, the cost of acquiring users is much lower than the cost of buying traffic. Now the cost for buying traffic for an A is 30 yuan each. Assuming there are 600,000 new users (in fact, it is far more than that, with an increase of 600,000 daily active users, the number of new users must at least double), the cost of buying traffic is 18 million yuan, and the prize for answering questions ranges from 50,000 to 200,000 yuan per game, and one million yuan a day at most. It can be predicted that in order to grab bonuses, each platform will increase the prize money for a single game. Currently, there is already a prize of 1 million per game.

4. Added Value

Adding new users is the basis for carrying out various operational work. For example, there is no need for operations positions during product development. Only when the product is facing users and has users coming in, operations will begin to get involved. Similarly, if after a product is launched, there are few new users, activities cannot be carried out, data cannot be analyzed , users cannot be maintained, let alone profitability, then the product is doomed. We have launched several small products before. The reason why they are called small products is that they were not operationalized. After they were launched, the number of new users increased by double digits every day, but we gave up operating them after one month.

New users are the guarantee of continued profitability. Even in the second half of the Internet , large platforms will still spend money to buy traffic and bring in users. Because there is a word here: loss. It's like filling a pool with water, and there's an outlet for the water to flow out. The result of new additions being less than churn is a gradual decline in daily active users. After stabilizing at a fixed value for a period of time, once the life cycle is over, the daily active users plummet and never recover.

When talking about payment, we cannot avoid LTV ( user lifetime value). Assuming that a user will not pay after 60 to 90 days, if no new users enter, the profit of the product will continue to decline, and the old users will just be the same money. Clash of Kings is such an example, so APP companies are forced to continuously acquire new users.

The above briefly explains some knowledge about new data. There is still a lot to understand about new users, such as user portraits , consumption capacity, user quality, whether there is any fraud, etc. Operation is such a complicated job. When we have some understanding of the new additions, we can understand retention and activity.

The author of this article @老虎 is compiled and published by (Qinggua Media). Please indicate the author information and source when reprinting!

Product promotion services: APP promotion services Advertising platform Longyou Century