Event operation, 5 key points to create a different lottery event!

01 Lucky Draw

Xiao Wu is a PM. Today is Monday, and it is also his second week in the new company. This is a startup Internet travel company whose main business is high-end car travel: the base price, mileage fees and time fees are all 20%+ more expensive than ordinary online car-hailing services.

In the initial stage, the company needed a large number of users and adopted preferential recharge methods to attract new users to register. Xiao Wu works in the Strategic Operations Product Department, which is responsible for the activation of new users, and the activity and retention of all users.

Just after the weekly meeting, the leader rushed back and asked Xiao Wu to come up with a plan.

The following is their conversation:

Leader: "Xiao Wu, you have been in the company for a week. Are you familiar with the business? At the weekly meeting, the boss asked us to come up with a plan to gradually cancel the order discount coupons for new users.

The previous pm used discount coupons to activate new users, and the effect was really good, but the company’s subsidy costs were too high. Now that the economy is in recession, all departments are cutting costs.

I'll give you three days to come up with the PRD. Come up with a way to cut the activation cost in half and achieve the same effect as the coupon. ”

Xiao Wu: ...

Two choices flashed through Xiao Wu's mind:

• A: “Okay, boss, I’ll check out what the competition is doing right away and I guarantee I’ll review it within three days.”
• B: "Boss, how do you activate new users now? How many users have been activated? What is the cost?"

If you are Xiao Wu, please think for three seconds and make a choice. Is it better to choose A or B?

If you choose B, congratulations, you have taken the first correct step in analyzing requirements: fully understand the background, goals and benefits before taking action.

We continue——

Xiao Wu: "Boss, how are new users activated now? How many users have been activated? What is the cost?"

Leader: “The company now has more than 5 million users, of which 2.7 million came in through preferential recharges. For every 1,000 recharged, 200 is returned, with a maximum recharge of 10,000.

At the beginning, this group of users placed less than 0.5 orders per week in the first month of registration, which is lower than the 3.6 orders per week for active users. In order to help them develop the habit of taking taxis, two 20% discount coupons will be given every 7 days in the first month after successful recharge, which will expire after 7 days.

In this way, the number of new user orders in the first month increased to 2.7. The habit was formed, but the company needed a lot of subsidies. ”

Xiao Wu: “Are there more detailed data?”

Leader: "I have a meeting to attend, I will send it to you at the meeting. Hurry up and get busy. I heard that competitor A has launched a 'taxi fee' to subsidize new users and reduce costs a lot. You should study it. We also need to keep up."

Xiao Wu: "Okay, boss."

In order to have a more comprehensive understanding of how competitors play, Xiao Wu registered for four competing apps and found that they all subsidized new users.

The "taxi money" gameplay of competitor A is eye-catching: the platform will provide subsidies to both new and old users.

The specific form is that after each payment is successfully made, a lottery page will pop up and reward the user with a random amount of money. The amount will be deposited in the user's taxi account and can be deducted from each payment with no expiration date.

For new users, there is also a certain tilt in probability towards large amounts: the winning amount for new users is significantly higher than that for old users.

Xiao Wu quickly discovered the advantages of the lottery:

1. It takes advantage of people's curiosity about the unknown, and even their addiction to it.
2. By controlling probability, we can not only control human behavior, but also control the budget.

In fact, in 1938, the "Skinner Box Experiment" revealed this truth: in the box, the main operators are various animals. There is a pressable lever on one side of a box. Next to the lever is a small box with food and right next to a small hole in the box. As long as the animal presses the lever in the box, food will fall into the small hole. Skinner, the inventor of the box, conducted a series of experiments, one of which was about addiction:

Put a very hungry mouse in a Skinner box and press the button multiple times, and there is a certain probability that food will drop. As a result, the mouse learned to press the button continuously. When food no longer dropped, the mice's learning behavior disappeared very slowly. As the probability gets lower and lower, the mouse's learning behavior of pressing the button does not change. Until a food falls after pressing the button 40-60 times, the mouse will still keep pressing the button for a long time. (Similarly, in experiments using pigeons, pigeons that received food reinforcement at varying intervals every 5 minutes could make 2-3 responses per second on average, and could respond continuously for up to 15 hours.) This experiment simulates why "gambling" - such as simple slot machines, or more complex gambling mahjong, etc., gives humans a sense of dependence, or addiction. Since the results can be controlled by adjusting the probability, it is difficult for the experimental subjects to intuitively judge whether the mechanism has failed, so a single failure will not terminate the habit and the behavior will continue. Probability controls not only the results, but also the budget.

Let’s get back to the topic. Can Xiao Wu use this gameplay directly?

Obviously, there are some unwise ways to play:

1. Directly using money, or the equivalent of money, to motivate users is very direct and may be effective, but it increases the threshold of stimulation. When other methods, such as virtual items, are used to motivate users in the future, users will compare them with money, thus creating a psychological gap.
2. The current way of playing is to win every time, the probability of winning is 100%, and you only get one chance to draw after payment.

After thinking for a while, Xiao Wu made a preliminary decision:

1. We also have products in the form of lottery, but the prizes are not only money, but also platform points and coupons. From the moment a user enters the platform, different levels of incentive types and thresholds are established;
2. After each payment, users will get 3 chances to win the lottery, allowing users to have more fun. However, it also limits the number of draws a user can make in a single day to prevent users from becoming addicted.
3. The probability of winning is not 100% to better control costs;
4. Add "Better luck next time" (to make users more 'addicted') and "Try it again" (is it like a roller coaster that reaches the top and suddenly stops?).

The flow chart and prototype diagram also came out soon:

02 The story behind the turntable

The characteristics of lottery have been analyzed. As an activity or a form of game, it takes advantage of people's curiosity and even addiction.

In addition, controlling the budget through probability is also a major feature of the lottery.

The trick looks simple, requiring only tapping the "Start" button and waiting for the winning result, but it turns out that it requires going through so many process nodes to complete.

2.1 Create the ultimate activity atmosphere

(1) Provide the most sufficient number of draws and types of opportunities

Readers who have played "Honor of Kings" should remember that there are many ways to obtain inscriptions: one of them is to use diamonds or gold coins to exchange for "inscription lottery opportunities." King of Glory understands the psychology of users and fully meets their needs in terms of opportunity acquisition:

① Opportunity to win by lying down:

Every 48 hours, you will be given a chance to draw an inscription for free (previously it was 24 hours).

This method not only satisfies users’ desire for lottery, but also takes advantage of small favors to earn users’ app opening rate and increase activity.

② Low threshold opportunities:

In addition to the regular single draw, users can also draw 5 times in a row.

However, the fragments (prizes) for one draw only range from 10-400 fragments (exchanged for gold coins) and 25-1600 fragments (exchanged for diamonds). The value of the prizes is obviously not as high as that for five consecutive draws: 65-500 fragments (exchanged for gold coins) and 500-3200 fragments (exchanged for diamonds).

③ High-value opportunities:

As mentioned above, leaving aside the risk that users may become addicted, high-value opportunities make the lottery explosive, increase the possibility of user addiction, and contribute to balancing the monetary system within the platform: a portion of uncirculated currencies (gold coins and diamonds) are devalued and turned into another type of "currency" with lower value (inscription fragments, which can only be converted into inscriptions after reaching a certain number), offsetting the risk of monetary inflation or deflation.

But if your product framework does not have a multi-level currency system like "Honor of Kings", can you not satisfy users in terms of opportunities?

Looking at the sweepstakes in other products, some common routines are also effective: sharing to get opportunities and completing tasks to get opportunities.

At this point, you should understand why the title uses "activation artifact": completing tasks can boost various indicators of the platform, especially some lightly active indicators, and gaining opportunities after sharing is even more helpful for leads.

Ample opportunities solve the source problem of the lottery. The most worrying thing is that users have no chance and cannot participate in the lottery. You also need to consider some of the "little thoughts" of users when drawing prizes:

(2) Make the roller coaster ride more intense

Imagine the following scenario: you click the "Start" button - the marquee starts spinning - it spins - the marquee slows down - the prize is "one more time".

As a PM, what will you design next?

Just like other products, a pop-up window tells users to "try again". It is a design method and is absolutely correct, but it is not outstanding enough.

At this moment, the user's mind is as if a roller coaster has reached the highest point, ready to rush down quickly to find out what's going on. Giving users pop-up windows and even requiring them to click to confirm and start over is undoubtedly not making good use of the "potential energy" at the highest point of the roller coaster.

Since it is paused at the highest point, you might as well give the user a surprise: the marquee can flash quickly for one second at the original icon, and then rush to the prize icon at a speed faster than "going up the mountain" to display the result and give the user a surprise.

(3) The winning results should be promptly fed back to users

After the marquee or other prize confirmation animation ends, users must be prompted in a timely manner, and the prize displayed in the animation must be consistent with the prize prompted for the winning prize, so as to avoid confusing users or causing extreme misunderstandings - the animation stops at the grand prize, but the prize prompted is inconsistent.

(4) Make users want to win the jackpot

The instant-win lottery that was all the rage in the 1990s was a thing I often did. I would look at the eye-catching prizes on the podium and ask my parents to take me to try my luck.

This kind of on-site lottery is a great attraction for both those who have participated and those who have not participated. First of all, the prizes are placed on the podium, making people's desires more concrete. When someone wins a prize, the staff will present the award to him/her on the stage, which will stimulate everyone present, regardless of whether you are involved or not.

However, online lotteries do not have offline scenarios, so how can we make them as attractive as offline lotteries?

It’s enough to display the prizes in the UI, but how will users know if other people win prizes, especially big prizes? If you think of the lottery as a live broadcast, "bullet screen" is the best way to let everyone know the news in time: the list of winners of the grand prize is played in rotation on the page to attract users to draw the lottery faster.

(5) If you don’t win the prize, you should give timely guidance

If there is no result after the roller coaster ride, it is necessary to comfort the user in time - you can use copywriting or UI to comfort them.

If the frequency of lottery draws is relatively high, you can also consider guiding users to draw again to make up for the psychological loss.

2.2 Probability and Budget

(1) Prevent the prize pool from being quickly depleted

Precisely because of the excitement of the lottery, users may flock to the lottery in large numbers, thereby draining the prize pool, making the actual probability of all subsequent lotteries 0.

Before launching a draw, it is important to balance probability and budget based on the estimated number of draws.

First give a formula:

Number of draws = total number of users * participation rate * average number of chances per person * percentage of chances used

Generally, once you know your budget, estimate the number of draws, and determine the probability of winning each prize, you will know how to balance probability and budget.

(2) Rated winning probability = actual winning probability?

Any rated value is not equal to the actual value, and the same goes for the probability of winning.

The results of a single lottery draw are always winning or losing. As the number of draws increases, the rated winning probability is to control (actual total number of winning times/actual total number of draws)% near the rated probability until the prize pool is exhausted.

Before going online, you can simulate several draws based on the estimated number of draws. Although the rated and actual winning probabilities are inconsistent, the results of each simulation should be similar. If the deviation rate is greater than or equal to 5%, you should pay attention.

2.3 Risk Prevention

Like any other activity, lucky draws also require risk management. In the following situations, we must do a good job of user operations to avoid negative impacts:

1. Service crashed.
2. The prize pool is drained: If the budget is sufficient, it is recommended to set the probability in advance to avoid the prize pool being drained. Replenishing the prize pool is technically troublesome and risky. Once it is drained, the actual probability of winning is 0, which is also a bad user experience.
3. Be prepared for a small number of bad users to photoshop winning screenshots, or parse URLs to commit illegal acts. The database should record the time, draw participants and results of each lottery in detail for future use.

2.4 Fairness and Red Lines

On March 17, 2004, the State Administration for Industry and Commerce made it clear in its “Reply on Whether Prize-giving Sales Activities Engaged in by Websites in Providing Online Shopping Services Constitute Unfair Competition” that lucky draws are prize-giving sales activities and should be regulated in accordance with Article 13 of the Anti-Unfair Competition Law.

For the sake of fairness and in accordance with relevant regulations, when operators hold sales with prizes, they should clearly inform buyers of the types of prizes, the probability of winning, the prize amounts or types of prizes, the time and method of redeeming prizes, and other matters.

For prize sales involving raffles where the prizes are not drawn on-site, the matters to be notified shall also include the time, location, and method of the draw and the time and method of notifying the winners, and the operator shall not change the matters in the preceding paragraph that have been made clear to the public.

In addition, when setting prizes, you should also pay attention to the following: Article 10 of the Anti-Unfair Competition Law, which was revised and implemented on January 1, 2018, stipulates that for prize sales in the form of raffles, the amount of the highest prize shall not exceed RMB 50,000.

03 Conclusion

Do you remember the few points that you need to pay attention to in order to create the ultimate event atmosphere?

1. Give the most possible number of draws and types of chances.
2. Make the roller coaster ride feel more intense.
3. The winning results should be fed back to users in a timely manner.
4. Make users feel like “I want to win the jackpot too”.
5. If you don't win the prize, you should give timely guidance

Although atmosphere is important, raffles involve money or other equivalents, so we should also pay attention to balancing probability and budget, risk prevention and laws and regulations to avoid the prize pool being drained out or accidentally violating national laws and regulations.

The above is all the content of the lucky draw. I hope it can be helpful to everyone’s product work.

Related reading:

1. Activity operation: an inventory of mainstream gameplay such as group buying, bargaining, and distribution!

2. Three key points of event operation: How to increase users’ willingness to participate in activities?

3. Event operation: How to do a live broadcast sharing that can attract 10,000+ users?

4. What you need to know about event operation | The basic process of operating online events

5. Event Operation: If these 4 points are met, there is no event that cannot be done well

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7. Event operation: 6 common types of event link title copywriting!

8. Event operation, complete analysis of the gameplay of flash sales

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11. How to warm up for event operation and promotion?

12. Event operation and promotion, how to use H5 to create a hot-selling product?

13.Product activity operation and promotion planning program!

14. Don’t know how to promote events? Here is a set of event operation templates!

15. A complete event operation plan!

Author: Mr. Huang

Source: Mr. Huang’s Practical Tips