It is also decent not to criticize the Metaverse

Reliable Axing: Today is different from the past, the market needs excitement

Text: Reliable A Xing

During this period, we can see news about large companies entering the Metaverse almost every day. All content and traffic platforms have paid more or less attention to it, such as Tencent, NetEase, ByteDance, etc. In addition to Facebook abroad, Disney, the most successful company in global IP operation, has also announced its entry into the Metaverse.

Of course, there are many articles that criticize the Metaverse. The most famous one is Cook’s comment that he doesn’t know what the Metaverse is. Should it be called AR? In fact, the Metaverse companies should pay Cook an advertising fee. Many people also say that Liu Cixin is not optimistic about the Metaverse.

In fact, Liu Cixin, who has always been low-key, expressed his views on the metaverse in a speech at the 2018 Clarke Imagination Service Award ceremony in the United States. Although it has only been three years since then, it feels like "a great change has taken place in the world." At that time, the entire entrepreneurial circle was dominated by blockchain and live streaming, and there was no concept of "metaverse." Therefore, rather than saying that Liu Cixin is against the metaverse, the metaverse may need Liu Cixin's attitude and enthusiasm to become more popular.

(1)

The popularity of the Metaverse is somewhat accidental, but also inevitable. Even without the Metaverse, other concepts would still be popular and would still be a hot topic for discussion.

We are indeed in a time of "story shortage" in the Internet technology industry, because the opportunities for growth within the existing traffic platforms are actually a bit boring. Those seemingly "good opportunities for everyone" are actually like a "martial arts competition for marriage" that has already been decided by most people, and can no longer generate enough appeal among entrepreneurs and the capital market.

To become a hot spot, the industry must be sufficiently "new", have a certain "information gap", and be able to generate enough "irrationality" to have the possibility of hot money flowing in; therefore, any hot spot will inevitably have bubbles. Without bubbles, the industry will most likely become a more "traditional business". This is true for the hot spot concepts that are competing to appear on the mobile Internet; some of them are even the most speculators and old leeks who wander around before the law is formed into explicit regulations, such as the digital currency and e-cigarette industries.

(2)

Any new thing is immature. Once it is written into the training courseware of teachers, or even becomes a government document or university textbook or business school, it can basically be declared "outdated". However, because it is immature and has many shortcomings, it often means that there are many things to criticize, just like new energy vehicles, which are still full of controversy and complaints online even though they are a new thing strongly supported by national policies.

Therefore, the only criterion for judging whether a new thing is worth understanding or affirming is whether you can make money from it.

Generally speaking, most people who participate in topic discussions are disdainful of making money. They may be working in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, or in a large Internet company, with an annual salary of 500,000 to 1,000,000 yuan. Even if they are exposed to various hot information every day, it is okay to read a few pieces of information, but if they see these every day, they would have been annoyed. To some extent, these information are not opportunities, but a kind of eye-catching harassment.

Another group of people are eager to make money from any hot concept and use useful information as leverage to leverage and integrate the resources they come into contact with. However, since they cannot access any valuable information, this creates a lack of "handle". The information they come into contact with is all lagged news seen in the media, so they become retail investors and old investors who chase every hot concept but cannot catch up with anything.

In fact, the real trend concept is only for companies that have been rooted in the industry early. They may not have found a sexy hot concept that can attract social attention to summarize their industry. Once this trend appears, it is like good luck and they quickly become unicorn companies and star companies. At this time, I think no entrepreneur will reject the concept that looks dazzling. After all, not every company has the huge profits and cash flow like Apple to become an Internet company that does not follow the trend.

(3)

Therefore, your attitude towards the "metaverse" depends entirely on your own needs. At present, China's Internet actually has some characteristics similar to the secondary market, which has a certain "gambling on luck".

In fact, business is like this. When it comes to innovation, industries that ten people think are feasible often have meager profits and fierce competition; five out of ten people think it is feasible and can probably participate, but it is unlikely that a giant will take a fancy to it; eight or nine out of ten people think the business risks are slightly too high and cannot do it. Only when there is a person with a unique vision who insists on doing it, and after the basic layout is well laid out and with the support of capital, it can often become a relatively great company.

I don’t really agree with the various discussions that the metaverse is a false proposition. What’s important is whether a phenomenal trend has driven the progress of the industry, promoted more outstanding talents to enter the industry, and whether it can leave behind products that change user behavior habits and even create a new ecosystem. Just like many people criticized blockchain and Bitcoin in the beginning, it cannot be denied that the concept of blockchain has become popular in China from the United States for more than eight years, and it has indeed produced a group of companies and star projects, and even many technologies and products have become part of the mainstream Internet apps.

The Metaverse is likely to follow the same path. As the capital market's attention heats up, the recent surge in salaries for technical, animation, and gaming professionals in the VR, AR, and 3D fields is a clear proof of this. I believe that soon the media and industry will also pay more attention to the Metaverse, and those who prematurely criticize the Metaverse are actually declaring themselves isolated from the commercialization of their own industry.

Of course, a certain degree of pessimism or cooling down is not a bad thing, as it can discourage a wave of followers and onlookers. Again, from a business perspective, all hot spots have positive significance. The truly valuable pessimism should be constructive criticism of mass-produced products in the immature stage of the industry, rather than simply condemning them.

In fact, at present, only China and the United States are still working on the global technology and Internet industry. Other countries such as Japan, Western Europe, and India are mostly stagnant. In the future, they can only serve as dumping markets for new technologies and new products after they mature. Even if they want some vitality brought by these impetuousness, bubbles, and frenzy, it is a luxury. That is the real despair.

Metaverse related reading:

Metaverse vs. Smartphone: If You Can’t Beat Them, Embrace Them

Treating the Metaverse: Luo Yonghao's positivity and Liu Cixin's pessimism

▼About the Author

Reliable Axing (Li Xing), WeChat public account: Reliable Axing, author of "Media Strategy"