Was Musk's Starship's first flight a success or a failure?

Recently, SpaceX conducted another launch test. On April 20, SpaceX attempted the first orbital-level test launch mission of the Super Heavy-Starship combination.

As we all know, the Super Heavy-Starship combination exploded and disintegrated approximately 239 seconds after ignition and launch, with several engines shut down and the rocket body severely tilted and rolled. The scene was quite spectacular.

The Super Heavy-Starship combination before launch (left) and the explosion after the launch failure (right)

Image source: SpaceX

The long-prepared test launch mission ended with a rocket explosion, which should have been a depressing thing, but Musk looked quite happy and sent a message on Twitter to congratulate the mission team.

So was this test launch a success or a failure? Is Musk just trying to save face and not admit his mistakes?

In fact, Musk and his team had set their expectations low for this test launch. He had estimated that the success rate would be only 50%. However, since this test launch marked the beginning of a new phase for SpaceX to explore interplanetary travel, despite the low probability of a successful launch, it still attracted the full attention of space enthusiasts.

At this point, some students may be confused: Since 2008, Musk has led a group of people to test launch again and again. Hasn't it been successfully launched and recovered? What is he doing this time?

Let's take this opportunity to sort it out.

There are two major components in space launch: rockets and spacecraft

Rockets and spacecraft are the "standard equipment" in space launch missions of various countries.

Taking my country as an example, Fengyun meteorological satellites, Beidou navigation satellites, Shenzhou manned spacecraft, Chang'e series of lunar probes, Tianwen-1 Mars probe and Tiangong space station, etc. are all called spacecraft. They fly in space according to the laws of motion of celestial mechanics and are used to complete manned and exploration missions.

During the research and development process, engineers not only had to ensure that the spacecraft had the ability to complete its intended mission, but also had to have good resistance to cosmic radiation, extreme temperature environments, and ultra-high-speed impacts from micrometeorites.

Chang'e 3 (left), Tiangong 1 (center) and Tianwen 1 (right)

Image source: cnsa

Rockets are the vehicles that deliver these spacecrafts safely into space. The heavier the spacecraft and the higher the orbit it is scheduled to reach, the stricter the comprehensive capability requirements for the rockets. The flight environment in the atmosphere is far more complex than in a vacuum, so in a space launch mission, the rocket ignition and launch and the two minutes after liftoff are the most prone to accidents.

At present, countries around the world are sparing no effort to develop more powerful rockets to ensure space launch missions.

Shenzhou series rockets (Source: Encyclopedia of China Database)

What has Musk's SpaceX done?

SpaceX is a private commercial space service provider supported and developed by NASA. Since its establishment, its mission has been to develop reusable rockets and cargo/manned spacecraft.

Reducing material costs and achieving reuse are Musk’s two magic weapons to reduce the cost of space launches.

I heard that titanium alloy, carbon fiber and other aerospace materials are too expensive? Then I will use stainless steel to build rockets!

Is it too wasteful and expensive to throw away rockets after launching them once? Then I can just pick up the launched rockets and continue using them!

SpaceX's R&D approach is also simple and direct. With the support of NASA, SpaceX quickly completed rounds of ground tests and launch tests.

You want me to conduct a rigorous demonstration before the test to ensure that there is no risk of error? No, just try it, patch it wherever it fails, and try again. This "programmers fixing bugs online" research and development method that shocked everyone had failed repeatedly and once brought SpaceX to the brink of bankruptcy, but it eventually achieved considerable success.

The failure of SpaceX

Image source: SpaceX

From 2008 to 2020, after hundreds of iterations of tests, SpaceX has gradually mastered the parachute splashdown recovery technology of the cargo/crew Dragon spacecraft and the reverse thrust vertical landing technology of the Falcon 9 launch vehicle. Through the repeated recycling of the Dragon spacecraft and the Falcon rocket, Musk has greatly reduced the cost of space launches, received a large number of commercial space orders, and was in the limelight for a while.

The Crew Dragon spacecraft (left) and the Falcon 9 rocket (right)

Image source: Wikipedia

SpaceX's first Starship flight test

Musk's ambition does not stop there, he ultimately wants to realize the colonization of Mars . However, in order to successfully transport the spacecraft to Mars, the thrust of SpaceX's existing Falcon rocket is far from meeting the requirements.

For this reason, Ma started iterating again: since the heavy Falcon 9 rocket equipped with 27 Raptor engines is not enough, I will use 33 high-powered Raptor engines to build a "super heavy" Falcon rocket! Yes, this new rocket is called the Super Heavy Falcon Rocket (SuperHeavy). The spacecraft above the Super Heavy Rocket is much larger than the Dragon spacecraft and is named Starship .

From 2018 to 2022, SpaceX has manufactured more than 30 Starship prototypes, conducted a large number of ground tests and flight tests in the atmosphere, and explored the Starship launch and reverse thrust vertical recovery technology step by step. This month's launch test is the first attempt at an orbital-level launch mission, that is, to see if the Starship can be launched and fly a distance near the near-Earth orbit.

According to the original plan, after the Super Heavy-Starship combination is launched, the Super Heavy Falcon will first make a controlled landing, while the Starship will fly around the earth nearly once and then splash down at sea for recovery.

Flight plan for the Super Heavy-Starship combination

Image source: China Aerospace News

However, at the beginning of the launch, the combination showed obvious tilt due to a malfunction. At the 67th second, it was found that a total of 6 engines had shut down. As a result, the thrust on the entire starship was no longer balanced, so it flew more and more crooked and even rolled, and finally had to end with detonation, with a maximum flight altitude of 39 kilometers.

↑↑↑ 17 seconds after ignition, the combination was launched successfully, the whole body was slightly tilted, and 3 engines initially failed

Image source: Space X

↑↑↑ 1 minute and 47 seconds after ignition, the assembly tilted severely, 6 engines failed, and leakage occurred

Image source: Space X

↑↑↑ 2 minutes and 26 seconds after ignition, the assembly began to roll

Image source: Space X

↑↑↑ 3 minutes and 59 seconds after ignition, the assembly exploded

Image source: Space X

For Musk, even if the Starship exploded on the ground, it would be acceptable (it has happened before), and this time the Starship exploded after flying for such a long time, which is already very good.

At the same time, this test proved that the technical route of Starship has a certain feasibility, and the later stage only needs to eliminate the engine out of control failure. This is why Musk has a high evaluation of the failure of this first flight.

Last words

Musk and his SpaceX are constantly experimenting in commercial spaceflight. How is my country progressing in this field?

In fact, as early as 1985, my country began to promote its self-developed Long March 3 rocket to the international commercial aerospace market, and successfully launched foreign satellites many times in the following years, occupying 9% of the international market share at one time. But in 1999, the United States issued the so-called "Cox Report", accusing China of stealing American aerospace technology and prohibiting any satellites using American parts from being launched by China. Since then, China's aerospace industry has entered a long period of decline, and it was not until 2005 that it began to enter the international market again.

Long March 2 rocket launches satellite for Hughes

Image source: China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology

Even so, China's space program has now achieved the feats of manned space flight, lunar exploration and deep space exploration. We have reason to believe that Chinese astronauts will eventually explore a new low-cost commercial space program in their own way.

References:

[1] SpaceX. Wikipedia https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX#SpaceX%E6%98%9F%E8%89%A6_2

[2] Analysis of the first flight of “Starship”. China Aerospace News https://www.163.com/dy/article/I3BM1G5L0552D3NO.html

[3] 1985-2015: China's initial exploration of commercialized spaceflight. Titanium Industry Observation https://k.sina.com.cn/article_6774587394_193cc000202000uwit.html

[4] More than 20 years ago, the Long March 2 rocket launched the "Australia Star": the rocket was still on the drawing board when the contract was signed. China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology http://calt.spacechina.com/n488/n754/c4237/content.html

Author: Liuhuo

Engineer at a research institute of weapons industry