It’s 40℃ now. Will it get hotter? The answer may make you “crash”…

Recently, many parts of the country have seen high temperatures of 40℃, making many people feel "desperate" about this summer. Not only that, there are news reports saying, "With the emergence of this year's El Nino state, will the world usher in the 'hottest year' since 1850 in the next two years, breaking the hottest record in 2016?" has become a social hot spot and focus of attention.

But is this really the case? How severe will this El Nino event be? How long will it last? What are the impacts? Will 2023 be even hotter, and will 2024 be the hottest? With these questions, we interviewed Zhou Bing, chief climate service expert at the China Meteorological Administration, to answer these questions for everyone.

01

What is the "El Niño event"?

What does it have to do with us?

The El Niño event refers to a phenomenon in which the sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean becomes abnormally warm over a long period of time, which generally lasts for 9 to 12 months.

Many people believe that the El Niño event brings about a one-way warming event, namely global warming and drought, but in fact the El Niño event also causes abnormal precipitation in many regions, resulting in floods and waterlogging disasters.

According to statistics from the China Meteorological Administration, there have been three super El Nino events since 1950, from April 1982 to June 1983, from April 1997 to April 1998, and from October 2014 to April 2016. These three super El Nino events have had varying degrees of impact on the world.

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Take the super El Nino event from October 2014 to April 2016 as an example. It caused heavy rains in southern my country in summer and autumn in 2014 and 2015, and urban waterlogging in many southern cities. It also caused a 5 million ton reduction in my country's corn production in 2015, as well as floods in the Yangtze River Basin and urban waterlogging in the south in 2016, which reduced grain crop production by about 2.6%. For other parts of the world, this super El Nino event led to increased rainfall in the perennially dry eastern United States, and led to extreme reductions in rainfall and increased droughts in many parts of Africa, exacerbating hunger, disease and water shortages among children in eastern and southern Africa.

It can be seen that the impact and changes of the El Niño event on the environment will be reflected in all aspects of human agricultural production and daily life, posing a great threat to human production and life.

02

How severe will this year's El Niño be?

In April this year, the World Meteorological Organization gave a forecast for this El Nino event - the probability of El Nino occurring from May to July this year is 60%. The China Meteorological Administration also predicted in early May that the equatorial central and eastern Pacific will enter an El Nino state this summer, and this El Nino event will occur 1 to 2 months earlier than previously expected, and will develop rapidly. According to current forecasts, this El Nino event will last at least 8 to 10 months and may reach its peak this winter.

In early June, many media reported that "2024 will be the hottest year". Regarding this issue, Zhou Bing said: At present, the current El Nino event is similar to the moderate El Nino event in 2009-2010, when the drought in the southwest region lasted for a long time and had a serious impact. However, if this El Nino event develops into a stronger event, the probability that 2024 will become the hottest year will increase significantly.

The World Meteorological Organization has concluded that the probability of a global temperature rise of 1.5°C in the next five years is 50%, and humanity must face a hotter, drier and more flooded future.

03

This El Niño event

What impact might it have?

Looking back at the two super El Nino events from April 1997 to April 1998 and from October 2014 to April 2016, they had a certain impact on my country's crop yields. According to statistics, the two super El Nino events caused my country's summer grain production to decrease by 11.2% and 1.2%, and early rice production to decrease by 7.5% and 0.9%, respectively.

However, when asked whether the rainy weather in many parts of the Yellow River Basin in May this year, which caused wheat to mold, was related to the El Nino event, Zhou Bing said, "The heavy rain in the Yellow River Basin this time was mainly affected by the cold air process in the northern westerly belt."

Henan Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs official website, relevant documents on timely harvesting, drying and airing wheat in response to continued rainy weather. Image source: screenshot of the website

In addition to the impact on crops, Zhou Bing also reminded everyone that this El Nino event may also lead to the return of the "flood in the south and drought in the north" climate pattern. In the coming months, urban flooding, heat waves, drought and forest fires should receive everyone's attention and attention, and make preparations for meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation in advance.

04

How to respond to El Niño events?

Zhou Bing said, "In 2022, extreme weather and climate events such as high temperature heat waves and consecutive droughts in summer and autumn occurred in southern my country, which has caused many people to pay unprecedented attention to climate issues." Not only that, the Australian forest fires lasted for more than four months in 2019 and 2020, releasing nearly 400 million tons of carbon dioxide into the earth system, turning forests from "sinks of carbon dioxide" to "sources of carbon dioxide after burning", bringing negative impacts on carbon neutrality.

The increase in forest fires has a huge negative impact on carbon neutrality. The picture is copyrighted by the library. Reprinting and using it may cause copyright disputes

Today, the emergence of El Niño events and the "hottest record" should make us pay more attention to the global climate crisis. El Niño will inevitably cause global or regional extreme weather to become more frequent and more intense, accelerating the pace of global warming.

Facing the upcoming El Niño event, we should be fully prepared for scientific response and active defense, and take practical actions to reverse or slow down the activation of climate tipping points. For example, we should use renewable energy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; reduce agricultural land and restore forest land through sustainable, healthy and more reasonable diets; monitor forest fires; and take measures such as urban waterlogging. These measures will help us better respond to and alleviate extreme weather. At the same time, we call on the whole society to urgently transform to avoid climate disasters, and promote a zero-carbon future together as a community with a shared future for mankind.

Author: Cui Yinghao Popular Science Creator

Reviewer: Ai Wanxiu, Chief Senior Engineer, Climate Service Office, National Climate Center

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