It rained in many places when Jam Hsiao proposed. Is the “Rain God” really that powerful?

At 20:15 on June 27, singer Jam Hsiao, known as the "Rain God", announced on social media that he had successfully proposed to his agent Youhui Lin. Netizens shouted: Let it rain soon to celebrate.

According to the national precipitation forecast released by the Central Meteorological Observatory, from 20:00 on June 27, when Jam Hsiao proposed, to 08:00 on July 1, most parts of the country will experience varying degrees of rainfall. Chengdu, the city where he had announced his settlement, even saw heavy rain and torrential rain. Subsequently, "It rained in many places after Jam Hsiao proposed" quickly topped the trending search list.

(Photo source: China National Meteorological Administration)

When Jam Hsiao proposed, it rained a lot. Was it a coincidence, a coincidence, or a coincidence? Let's take a quick look at it from a scientific perspective.

The success rate of “calling for rain” is as high as 83%. Is it science or metaphysics?

Speaking of the birth of the "Rain God", we have to mention the date of July 21, 2012. At that time, Jam Hsiao's solo concert was held in Wukesong, Beijing. On that day, Beijing welcomed the heaviest rainfall in 61 years. Roads were interrupted by heavy rain, traffic was paralyzed by waterlogging, and streets turned into rivers. It was better to take a boat than a car. As a result, the name of "Rain God" spread like wildfire.

(Screenshot from Jam Hsiao’s Weibo)

The Beijing News once did a statistics in 2013. After comparing Xiao Jingteng’s important schedules from March to December of that year with the local weather forecast of the day, they found that Xiao Jingteng’s success rate of "calling for rain" was as high as 83.3%. The mysterious saying that it would rain wherever Xiao Jingteng held a concert became more and more mysterious.

And if we compare carefully the cities and corresponding times of Xiao Jingteng's activities, we will find that whether it was Beijing in July 2012 and Xi'an in July 2013 more than ten years ago, or Shanghai in June 2022 in the past two years, and June 27 this year when Xiao Jingteng proposed, the time when he had major activities happened to be the season with concentrated rainfall in this place.

Anyone who has studied geography in middle school should know that the climate type in most parts of my country is continental climate or monsoon climate. From a meteorological point of view, from May to July each year, which is the summer in the northern hemisphere, most parts of my country are in a period of high temperature and high rainfall due to the influence of subtropical high pressure. If Xiao Jingteng chooses to attend an event in China during this period, it would be hard to avoid rain.

Moreover, if you observe carefully, you will find that if Xiao Jingteng performs activities in China in August and September, his skill of "calling for rain" seems to be less effective. For example, in August 2022, he was recording a program in Chengdu, but the sun was scorching in Chengdu and not a drop of rain fell. For another example, in September of the same year, Xiao Jingteng appeared in Zhengzhou to attend an event, but the temperature in Zhengzhou reached more than 30 degrees and the sky was also sunny.

Why is the metaphysics of "Rain God" Jam Hsiao becoming more and more mysterious? Pregnancy effect and confirmation bias

Have you ever had such an experience in life? For example, you wore a blue dress today, and then you found that you seemed to meet more people wearing blue clothes than usual; for example, you were in a very bad mood today, and then you felt as if everyone and everything was bringing bad luck to you.

In fact, when you associate Jam Hsiao with rain, your brain is going through a process similar to the above two situations. There are two psychological concepts that can be used to explain this phenomenon - the "pregnant woman effect" and confirmation bias.

The "pregnant woman effect" is also known as the "retinal effect" or observer expectation effect. It refers to the accidental factors that appear in life. As you pay more attention to them, you will develop a cognitive bias that the frequency of their occurrence will increase and become more common. Therefore, pregnant people are more likely to find other pregnant women on the street. When a person focuses on a certain characteristic of his own, he will also find more people around him with the same characteristic.

The so-called confirmation bias refers to the tendency for people to selectively recall and collect favorable details and ignore unfavorable or contradictory information to support their existing ideas or hypotheses. When people selectively collect or recall information, or interpret information with bias, they experience confirmation bias.

Think about it carefully, isn't it like this: the more you pay attention to the connection between Jam Hsiao and rain, the more easily your eyes and brain will notice the information that it rained somewhere when Jam Hsiao held an event. At the same time, you will selectively ignore the information that it did not rain somewhere when Jam Hsiao held an event.

Of course, science cannot fully explain every special connection between Jam Hsiao and rain. After all, under the background of global warming, there will still be extreme cold waves in some place at some moment. But at least, scientific thinking can give us a different perspective on things.