El Niño is coming, are you ready?

According to the latest monitoring by the National Climate Center, a moderate El Nino event has formed and will last until next spring. Under its influence, and in the context of global warming, the global average temperature in 2023 may break the record of the warmest year in 2016. It is expected that the temperature in most parts of my country from this winter to next spring will be close to or higher than the same period of previous years, but periodic cold air will be active, precipitation in southern China will be high, and the risk of complex meteorological disasters will increase.

A moderate El Niño event has developed

Since the equatorial central and eastern Pacific entered the El Niño state in May 2023, the sea temperature index in key areas has shown a continuous trend of rapid warming from May to October, and has exceeded 0.5°C for five consecutive months, reaching the standard for the formation of an El Niño event with moderate intensity and eastern type (i.e. the sea temperature center is located in the equatorial eastern Pacific).

According to the predictions of many climate dynamic models and statistical methods at home and abroad, the El Niño event is expected to continue until the spring of 2024, and the peak of the sea temperature index in the key area will appear from November 2023 to January 2024. Considering the impact of the El Niño event on the climate system and the effect of global warming, the risk of compound meteorological disasters caused by extreme weather will increase.

El Nino is an important factor affecting global climate anomalies

El Niño will intensify global warming. El Niño events in the tropical Pacific region mainly heat the atmosphere, causing global temperatures to rise. Studies have shown that for every 1°C increase in the sea temperature in the equatorial eastern Pacific, the global annual average temperature will rise by 0.12°C. A moderate or above El Niño event can usually increase the annual average global surface temperature by about 0.1°C-0.22°C. With the emergence of the warmest monthly records since May 2023, it is more likely to break the record of the warmest year in 2016, and 2023 may become the warmest year since 1850.

El Nino causes more precipitation in southern my country and warmer weather in northern China. Since the 1990s, from the summer of the year when El Nino developed to the summer of the following year, the areas with more precipitation in China have mostly expanded from the north and south of the Yangtze River to the Huaihe River area, among which the abnormally high precipitation in winter is the most obvious. The impact of El Nino on the winter of the current year and the summer of the following year is stronger than that on the summer and autumn of the current year. For example, during the flood season of 1998, my country experienced a "violent plum rain" and continuous heavy rains in the Yangtze River Basin triggered basin-wide floods. In the winter when El Nino occurred, my country's Huaihe, Yangtze River and Pearl River basins had abnormally more precipitation, and the temperature in Northeast my country was abnormally high, that is, the winter in the south was rainy and the winter in the north was warm.

Take precautions against possible meteorological disasters this winter and next spring

The National Climate Center released my country's climate trends for this winter and next spring in early November this year. Taking into account the influence of the El Niño event and other factors of the climate system, it is predicted that low temperature snow disasters may occur in the north and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in winter, the demand for heating energy may be higher than the same period in history, and there will be a periodic energy consumption peak.

In winter, the southern region may experience periodic low temperature, rain, snow and freezing weather. The southern part of central China, the southeastern part of eastern China, the northern part of southern China and the southeastern part of the southwest region may experience periodic low temperature, rain, snow and freezing weather, which may have a great impact on power transmission lines, energy transportation, and transportation. The risk of crop frost damage caused by periodic strong temperature drop is high. However, the possibility of a long-lasting and wide-ranging low temperature, rain, snow and freezing disaster similar to the one in the south from the end of early January to early February in 2008 is small.

In winter and spring, the central and western parts of the southwest region will experience higher temperatures and less precipitation, and the forest fire risk level will be high. Meteorological drought may develop in the southeastern part of the northwest region and the northern part of the southwest region.

The overall atmospheric pollution diffusion conditions in central and eastern China are deviated during winter and spring. It is recommended to pay attention to the occurrence of calm and stable weather during the intervals between cold air, and prevent the impact of fog and haze weather on transportation and human health in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas, Fenwei Plain and other places.

This article is reprinted from the National Climate Center WeChat official account