Is abnormal animal behavior a sign of an approaching earthquake?

There is no solid scientific evidence for this claim.

There are many stories of animals displaying unusual behavior before an earthquake, which is often mistakenly interpreted as a sign that an earthquake is approaching. However, scientific research shows that there is no solid evidence to support this claim.

Many people report that pets or wild animals at home exhibit unusual behaviors before an earthquake, such as restlessness, running away, or making unusual noises. These observations have led to speculation that animals have a "sixth sense" that could predict earthquakes in advance. However, despite many reports of unusual animal behavior, the scientific community has yet to find conclusive evidence that there is a direct link between these behaviors and earthquakes.

The first is the lack of systematic evidence. Many reports of abnormal animal behavior are sporadic and lack systematic records and scientific verification. Most cases are retrospective and easily influenced by subjective bias.

The second is the influence of multiple factors. Animal behavior is affected by many factors, such as weather changes, environmental pressure and human activities. Abnormal behavior before an earthquake may be just the result of these factors, rather than a direct precursor to an earthquake. The third is the failure to repeat the verification. In scientific research, repeatability is an important criterion for verifying hypotheses. At present, no research has been able to repeat the direct connection between animal behavior and earthquakes under different environments and conditions. Therefore, the view that abnormal animal behavior is a precursor to earthquakes, although widely circulated, lacks scientific empirical support. Current research has not yet proved that animals can predict earthquakes.

In order to improve the accuracy of earthquake prediction, scientists suggest relying on earthquake monitoring technology and data analysis rather than relying solely on animal behavior. In other words, abnormal animal behavior is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for an earthquake to occur. So what is scientific earthquake prediction like?

Earthquake prediction has always been one of the major challenges in the field of earth science. Although we have a certain understanding of the mechanism of earthquake occurrence, it is still very difficult to accurately predict the time, location and intensity of an earthquake.

The first is the complexity of the earth's crust. The crust is composed of a variety of rocks and has complex physical and chemical properties. The occurrence of earthquakes involves the release of stress inside the crust, a process that is affected by many factors and is difficult to accurately simulate and predict.

The second is the lack of direct earthquake precursors. At present, no reliable earthquake precursor signals have been found that can accurately predict earthquakes in all cases. Many potential precursors, such as seismic waves, geomagnetic changes, and groundwater level changes, are often uncertain and accidental.

The third is the limited earthquake data. Although a large number of earthquake monitoring equipment has been deployed worldwide, the collection and analysis of earthquake data still faces technical and resource limitations. This limits the ability to monitor and predict earthquake activity in real time.

However, despite the difficulties, scientists are still exploring a variety of methods to improve earthquake prediction technology: Statistical seismology: By analyzing historical earthquake data, scientists can identify patterns of seismic activity in a specific area. This method can help assess the probability of an earthquake occurring in a specific area at a certain time in the future, but it cannot accurately predict specific earthquake events.

Earthquake early warning system: The earthquake early warning system uses the characteristics of seismic wave propagation to quickly detect the initial vibration (P wave) after an earthquake occurs and issue an alarm before the main vibration (S wave) arrives. This system can buy people a few seconds to tens of seconds of reaction time to reduce earthquake disaster losses.

Machine learning and big data analysis: With the development of computing technology, scientists have begun to use machine learning and big data analysis to identify weak signals before earthquakes. These methods are expected to improve the accuracy and reliability of earthquake prediction.

Multidisciplinary research: Earthquake prediction requires the integration of knowledge from multiple disciplines, including geology, physics, chemistry, and engineering. Through comprehensive research, scientists hope to reveal the complex mechanisms of earthquake occurrence and improve prediction capabilities.

Although earthquake prediction still faces many challenges, scientists are full of hope for the future. With the advancement of technology and the deepening of understanding of earthquake mechanisms, the accuracy of earthquake prediction is expected to gradually improve. At the same time, strengthening the publicity and preparation of earthquake disaster prevention and reduction remains a key measure to reduce earthquake losses. Through continuous scientific exploration and technological innovation, we look forward to achieving more reliable earthquake prediction in the near future and providing stronger protection for the safety of human society.

Shi Jianyi, Bachelor of Wuhan University, popular science creator

Qi Gan, Deputy Director of the Geological Disaster Emergency Coordination Office, China Institute of Geological Environment Monitoring (Geological Disaster Technical Guidance Center, Ministry of Natural Resources)