Analysts say smartphones will not die out, but are a necessary condition for the future development of AR

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Tencent Technology News According to foreign media reports, using Apple's recently launched ARKit, developers can develop some truly impressive AR (augmented reality) content for the iPhone. This has led some futurists and technology experts to declare that the era of smartphones has ended and AR smart glasses will soon take its place.

But the death of the smartphone is a bit exaggerated. In fact, the argument that the smartphone will die at the hands of AR is basically wrong. Smartphones will play a very important role in the rise of AR.

According to market research firm Global Market Insights, the global market for AR products will grow 80% to $165 billion by 2024. That's why Michael Abrash, chief scientist at Oculus Research, a unit of social network Facebook, believes that smart glasses will one day replace smartphones. "In 20 or 30 years, people may not carry stylish smartphones everywhere, but wear stylish smart glasses. These smart glasses will provide VR (virtual reality) or AR or something in between," he said.

Apple CEO Tim Cook is also confident about the future of AR. "I think it's a great idea, just like the smartphone," he said in a recent interview.

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg is also optimistic about AR. "We all want smart glasses or contact lenses. They look natural, but can overlay all kinds of information and digital objects on the real world," he said at this year's F8 conference.

Apple, Magic Leap and Facebook are likely to join Microsoft, which is working on its Hololens headset, and Snapchat, which launched its mixed-review Spectacles smart glasses earlier this year.

Challenges of AR

AR has the potential to become ubiquitous. It has broad application prospects in many industries, such as gaming, architecture, healthcare, retail, fashion, entertainment, military, and education. However, it also faces many challenges. Most existing AR smart glasses are either fragile and not powerful enough, or powerful but bulky. No vendor has yet launched a lightweight, stable, and sturdy device.

Another problem is that projecting 3D content in real time consumes a lot of power. Smartphones may be able to extend battery life and AR runtime. Many technology giants and electric car manufacturers such as Tesla are racing to develop alternatives to lithium-ion batteries. Today, most mobile devices use lithium-ion batteries. However, these innovations have not yet been applied to smartphones. Part of the reason is production technology, as it is very costly to change existing production conditions.

Content will also be important. Useful applications are an important factor in users' willingness to use AR devices and spend money on them. For example, Snap's Lenses feature can overlay digital images on the real world, making AR objects appear to exist in the real world, and the closer you are to it, the larger it looks. However, most of Snap's successful AR features have been developed for smartphones.

The smartphone you can’t live without

It's hard to make wearables a mainstream consumer product. Apple's attempt at a smartwatch, the Watch, was a failure. The company doesn't release sales figures for the Watch, but a recent report claims they're down 90 percent. And Google's much-hyped Google Glass has also flopped.

Analysts at Royal Bank of Canada say we are still years away from AR becoming ubiquitous. More likely, AR will be a major companion to smartphones. In fact, Google is betting big on Project Tango to integrate AR with existing smartphones through technologies such as motion tracking, depth sensing, and "environmental learning." Meanwhile, Facebook and Snap are busy building the most powerful social AR devices that run primarily on existing smartphone hardware. Apple is said to be preparing to use 3D sensors in its upcoming iPhone 8's dual-camera system.

Can Facebook, Snap or Apple successfully integrate AR with smartphones? Or can smart glasses really become a mainstream product? We don't know yet. But one thing is certain: smartphones will play an indispensable role in the future development of AR. Its era is far from over. (Compiled by Lexue)