Who will become the most important channel for iPhone 6?

Apple has officially confirmed that it will release the iPhone 6 on September 9 at the Flint Center for the Performing Arts in Cupertino, California, where Apple is headquartered.

In addition to not choosing California as the location, another difference is that Apple released the iPhone 6 simultaneously around the world, rather than having a time difference between different regions. Therefore, Chinese consumers can also buy the iPhone 6 simultaneously around the world.

Various spy photos and rumors about the functional experience of iPhone 6 have already spread all over the Internet and major media. The author is more interested in who Apple will use as an important channel in the Chinese market, as it has already won over the three major operators?

China Telecom, China Mobile or China Unicom, who will take the lead in the channel?

Although the competition among the three major operators for Apple seems very dramatic to many people, for users and the three major operators, whether it is their own needs or performance considerations, the iPhone 6 will obviously set off a new round of competition.

As the only supplier, Apple may have to consider adopting different strategies on the proportion of the three major channels in China for the sake of performance needs. The equal treatment or one-size-fits-all channel policy is obviously not the style of Cook who "does business as business" - let emotions be emotions and business be business. More realistic considerations are probably more important to Apple.

Let’s first look at whether the iPhone 6 can “make a comeback” in the minds of consumers?

People have been looking forward to a large-screen Apple for a long time. In this regard, Apple needs to thank Samsung for its continuous education of the market on large-screen smartphones.

From 5 to 5S, Apple is carefully adapting to this trend. It is said that the size of iPhone 6 will be at least 4.7, and some media also said that the screen size of 5.5 is inevitable.

It seems that it will not be difficult for iPhone 6 to become a very competitive model in the high-end market, but will it be the only one worthy of attention?

In this regard, data from the "Mobile Internet Development Trend Report" for the second quarter of 2014 released by Baidu showed that 21% of high-end Android users (mobile phones priced over 3,000) said they would definitely buy the iPhone as soon as it was released.

Taking into account the stickiness of Apple fans and the willingness of high-end Android customers to change their phones, I am afraid that the iPhone 6 is the only model worth paying attention to for the high-end customer base this year.

This is not to say that Apple is doing well. Since the death of Mr. Steve Jobs, Apple's lack of product innovation is obvious to all. More importantly, the decline of Samsung, Apple's biggest competitor, has given Apple an opportunity.

In the past few years, the competition among Android smartphones has prematurely entered a stage of “hard power” competition. The size of Apple phones has increased from 5 inches to 7 inches, the processor has increased from 2 cores to 8 cores, and the camera has increased from 10 million to 20 million. The hardware configuration of Android smartphones has become higher and higher.

In this regard, as the industry's learning curve becomes smoother, domestic manufacturers represented by Huawei, Xiaomi, ZTE, Coolpad, and BBK are narrowing the gap with Samsung, to the point that in the Chinese market and even some overseas regional markets, a situation has been formed in which Chinese terminal manufacturers are besieging Samsung in a pack.

In the global market, according to data from the US market research company IDC, Huawei has grown into the world's third largest smartphone manufacturer in the second quarter of 2014, with its market share increasing from 4.3% in the same period last year to 6.9% in the current quarter; Samsung Electronics' shipments, however, fell by 3.9%.

In the Chinese market, the latest report released by British market research company Canalys shows that Xiaomi's smartphone shipments in the second quarter of 2014 reached 15 million units, surpassing Samsung for the first time to become the number one in the Chinese market. Samsung's smartphone shipments in China were 13.2 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 15%, and it fell to second place.

At the same time, complaints and aesthetic fatigue about Android smartphones have been heard one after another in the market, and viruses and memory consumption have been occurring one after another.

The launch of the large-screen iPhone 6 is likely to attract the attention of high-end users and encourage them to change their phones. The iPhone 6 in the post-Jobs era may be more attractive to high-end customers who are accustomed to large screens.

From this point of view, Apple may have high hopes for the Chinese market.

However, for Apple, should it choose China Mobile as the earliest partner to sell iPhone 6 on a large scale?

This point, perhaps, is beyond doubt.

The "China Smartphone Market Monitoring Report for the First Half of 2014" released by iiMedia Research shows that in the second quarter of 2014, Apple's mobile phone sales in the Chinese market increased significantly, thanks to the cooperation between Apple and China Mobile, the world's largest telecommunications operator.

Apple's Q3 2014 financial report also showed that Apple's revenue in Greater China was US$5.935 billion, a 28% increase from US$4.641 billion in the same period last year; it maintained a high growth rate of 28% in Greater China, which was mainly due to the rapid coverage of channels with more than 700 million users after cooperation with China Mobile, as well as China's vigorous promotion of iPhone contract business.

Therefore, Apple, which has already tasted the new sweetness in the Chinese market, will inevitably choose to focus on the operator channel. For Apple, which pursues user experience, China Mobile obviously has a higher "utilization" value.

Apple's most direct appeal will be to hope to make a comeback with the help of iPhone 6, especially when growth in other parts of the world is sluggish, and its reliance on the Chinese market will increase.

First of all, in terms of user scale, China Mobile's user base of over 700 million is extremely attractive. And if we consider the current growth rate of China Mobile's 4G users - according to China Mobile's latest monthly operating data, the number of new 4G users in July was 6.94 million, and the data in June was 5.83 million - the temptation for Apple can be imagined.

China Mobile's competitors, China Unicom and China Telecom, have either seen negative growth or a sharp decline in the number of new users. For example, China Unicom only added 880,000 new mobile users in July, in sharp contrast to 3.8 million in June. China Telecom has always maintained a negative number, even in terms of 3G users, China Telecom and China Unicom's data in July were 1.45 million and 2.51 million respectively, which is far from China Mobile's 6.94 million, which only counts 4G users.

In addition, from the perspective of user experience, the quality of 4G network coverage is another factor that Apple is concerned about. In this regard, China Mobile, which already has 410,000 4G base stations and has completed township-level coverage in most of the country and indoor coverage of office buildings and subways in key cities, probably needs no further explanation compared with China Telecom and China Unicom, which have just started hybrid network trials.

Even if FDD has a faster theoretical rate, without network coverage, users can only sigh in despair.

In fact, there is not much difference in service charges among the three major operators. However, judging from one of the characteristics of the network's natural monopoly industry - the user lock-in effect, China Mobile, with a user base of 700 million, has obviously formed a situation where the more users, the more users it gets.

China Mobile has reached a cooperation with Apple, with the help of 4G, and its purpose and demands are actually very direct.

The author has seen some banners in some cities and counties of China Mobile, which read: Seize the only window of opportunity for 4G.

It can be seen that China Mobile is eager to get rid of the passive situation in the 3G era, regain the leading position in the industry and gain the right to speak. The cooperation with Apple is of special value to China Mobile in regaining its reputation among high-end user groups.

After all, targeting high-end user groups is a win-win strategy for Apple and China Mobile. China Mobile has the largest cash flow. Although the subsidy for terminals will be reduced under the general trend of reducing marketing expenses, China Mobile still has far more and more flexible marketing cost options than its competitors.

For China Mobile, if it can use iPhone 6 to reactivate the numbers that have not been abandoned by high-end users, it will be a crucial success.

This kind of eagerness to turn things around is probably something Apple would like to see.

The author estimates that in the coming year, Apple may have an optimistic harvest in the Chinese market.

According to the 2013 Mobile Internet Report released by Umeng, high-end mobile phones priced above 3,000 yuan accounted for 27% in China, of which 80% were iPhones.

IDC's latest "China Mobile Phone Market Monthly Tracking Report" shows that China's 4G smartphone shipments in the first half of the year were about 35 million units, lower than industry expectations.

A relevant person in charge of China Mobile stated that the original goal of 100 million 4G mobile phones remains unchanged. Therefore, even if the 4G smartphone shipments in the first half and the second half remain the same according to IDC data, there are at least 35 million units, and the lower limit of Apple's shipments in mainland China is about 7.5 million. If we refer to China Mobile's 4G mobile phone plan sales data, since China Mobile completed the sales of 120 million mobile phones (including 3G and 4G) in the first half of the year - China Mobile did not announce the specific figures for 4G, but from its existing 20 million 4G user scale, according to China Mobile's 50% conversion rate for converting 4G terminals to 4G users, it means that it may have sold 40 million 4G smartphones, which is at least 60 million short of the target of 100 million units.

Then, Apple can at least reach 12 million units in the second half of the year from China Mobile's sales channels.

If we take the channels of the three major operators into consideration, it is optimistically estimated that Apple's sales in mainland China may remain at around 15 million. Of course, this is the figure for half a year. From September to the end of the year, two months of the half year have passed, and the figure may not be so optimistic.

Apple is very important to China Mobile, but China Mobile seems to be more important to Apple. At the end of 2013, Cook said at Apple's all-staff meeting that China is Apple's key and growing "super market" and that the growth rate of the Chinese market has exceeded that of the United States.

I am afraid that China Mobile will be the key to achieving new breakthroughs.

The consensus in the industry is that, in general, mobile user penetration rate is an indicator for assessing whether the mobile communications market is saturated and estimating future development space.

It is perhaps self-evident who can become Apple's most important channel.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.