Apple conference: doubts about the concept of affordable luxury led to a drop in stock prices

After four years, Apple finally launched a new category, APPLE WATCH, which has given Apple, which has been criticized for its lack of innovation in recent years, a new fulcrum. At the same time, in line with the trend of large-screen phones, Apple launched the "bigger than bigger" iPhone 6/Plus at the right time, which seems to be a new online carnival. Apple has officially ushered in the era of light luxury, but has lost itself in the design of new categories. After the press conference, I will say a few honest words based on my understanding:

1. Still the best smartphone on earth

No matter how fiercely the Eastern Hemisphere fights for second place, the iPhone is undoubtedly the best mobile phone in the world.

Apple's strategic positioning in patents for the iPhone and iOS in 2007 gave Apple an advantage, and the patent dividends left by the Jobs era are far from being exhausted. Apple's excellent hardware design can provide an extremely smooth user experience on a 4-inch phone. This time, it is even more handy to switch to a 4.7/5.5-inch size.

Designers who have done industrial design should know how important space is, so the iPhone has added many new features on the basis of the original one. Including the optical image stabilization technology added to the iPhone 6 Plus, this technology is also the first time to appear in the iPhone product line. In addition, Apple's support for photography this time is unprecedented. Not only has the camera hardware been greatly improved, but the ISP is also integrated into the A8 processor, which is not the ISP Module of most manufacturers, which fundamentally guarantees the image quality of the iPhone.

As the saying goes, there is no first in literature and no second in martial arts. Literature refers to factors such as appearance, feel, and texture, and people have different opinions on this aspect. And martial arts refers to hardware, size, and functions, and in this aspect, the iPhone is recognized as the best.

2. The doomed Apple Watch

Apple Watch is the first new product category launched by Apple after Jobs' death. Apple has spent 2-3 years on this. The outside world believes that smart watches are the most important step for Cook to gain recognition from capital. However, judging from the press conference, Apple Watch is far from being attractive. People always tell me "Why are there so many buttons on the watch?" and "Why are there so many functions and places to operate?"

What is the role of a watch? In my opinion, there are three points. 1: A symbol of identity. 2: Telling time. 3: Quietly and safely collecting personal data. My watch does not need a lot of operating instructions, and does not need to support viewing this and that, because I have a mobile phone, and the watch only needs to quietly collect my data and sync it to the iPhone. In my imagination, the Apple Watch should be as simple as a beautifully designed watch, which can only display time and extremely basic data, cannot be touched, and can quietly sync data.

According to these three theories, the only thing that Apple can do is to be a symbol of status. Apple has positioned this smartwatch very accurately: the “light luxury” class. The price is not cheap at all, nor is it very expensive. I believe that Angela, who Apple hired from Burberry last year, played a key role in the positioning of this product. Behind the watch is a huge watch strap industry chain, and the 18K gold version gives the luxury group an extra guarantee of status.

The watch Cook made is a digital monster. It supports a lot of functions, but it is still an accessory of the phone and must be used in the iOS environment. It makes me hard to imagine that most people in the subway are looking at their phones, while a few are playing with their watches. Oh my God, this picture is a disaster.

What is even more unacceptable is that Apple Watch will be released in Q1 next year. How is this different from selling futures? Four months is enough time for Samsung, LG, and MOTO to launch two generations of improved smart watches. How can Apple be so confident in such a long window?

3. Continue to develop big data gold mines

After Apple first introduced the Touch ID concept last year, this year Apple introduced the Apple Pay concept. The user side of Apply Pay can bind the user's credit card, and the payment side uses the Touch ID + NFC function to achieve near-field communication. Compared with the traditional payment model, Apple has once again taken the lead, and the user habits cultivated through the iPhone 5S are seamlessly connected to APPLE Pay, making payment smooth. Behind this is not only Apple's "strong selling point" and the cultivation of consumer security, but also the thirst for big data.

For the capital market, the closer to the payment field, the greater the commercial value. Apple has created a safe and comfortable payment experience, so it does not need to know the payment behavior of individual users (for this reason, Apple said it will not provide merchants with users' credit card numbers and other information, and will use a one-time payment number and dynamic password. At the same time, Apple does not save users' payment records). It only needs to summarize the payment behavior habits of a large number of users to provide sufficient support for future product pricing, commercial promotions, and analytical reports. From this point of view, the quality of Apple's big data is the highest among all digital manufacturers.

In addition, the new M8 coprocessor is integrated into Apple's second-generation A8 processor, which adds the function of processing health application data. Together with the built-in sensors in the Apple Watch, it can collect the user's core health data. This micro sensor can achieve ultra-low power standby while working in real time 24/7. With iPhone 6+WATCH, Apple can sense the current status, location, behavior, and operation in real time, and the standby time is the same as before. What a magnificent mobile Internet gold mine this will give birth to?

4. Apple is still living off its past success

I believe many people have noticed that Apple has deliberately removed the "i" era left over from the Steve Jobs era at this conference. In addition to its flagship product, the iPhone, Apple's new payment services and smart watches all begin with "APPLE". This is a very obvious "de-Steve Jobsization" process in the Cook era.

Since Steve Jobs left and Tim Cook took over as CEO in 2011, Apple has started a new round of personnel changes. In the past three years, Ron Johnson, the founder of Apple's retail store strategy, Scott Forstall, head of iOS software, John Browett, head of the retail department, and Zane-Rowe, Apple's vice president of North American market, have left one after another, while Jonathan Ive has taken charge of the company's software and hardware design and promoted Apple's flat design style.

Now Cook has basically completed the iteration of the company's top management, and product design has also stabilized. However, the de-Jobs strategy has not yet achieved significant results. Judging from the reaction at the press conference, everyone is generally optimistic about the iPhone, but generally has reservations about the Watch. Cook's current livelihood is still based on the old capital of the Jobs era.

5. From “Humanities and Technology” to “Light Luxury”

In the Steve Jobs era, Apple defined itself as "standing at the intersection of humanity and technology." In the Cook era, Apple emphasizes more on "the arrival of the era of light luxury."

Light luxury is the judgment made by Apple in the current environment. Currently, iPhone has become a global arcade, with 1 billion iOS devices in use, including both ordinary users and upper-class people. How to keep users fresh has become the biggest problem. Under this concept, Apple's new products must continue to maintain a high-end positioning, with prices that ordinary users feel are expensive but not unaffordable, so as to maintain the brand's high-end image and not be abandoned by the upper class. Therefore, in two years, Apple launched the gold version of the iPhone for the first time, and this time released the WATCH priced at $349 and the more expensive iPhone 6 Plus, and even launched the 18K gold version of the WATCH, which was unimaginable in the Jobs era.

In 2013, Apple officially announced the hiring of Angela Ahrendts, CEO of luxury brand Burberry, as head of its retail business. Ahrendts's greatest achievement before this was to transform Burberry from a conservative and traditional brand into a fashionable luxury brand. Apple chose Ahrendts during this transition period because of her experience in "accessible luxury".

After this press conference, Apple has taken the first step in the field of affordable luxury. If my prediction is correct, Apple will launch luxury APPLE WATCH straps in cooperation with high-end luxury brands in November this year. On the other hand, Apple's cheap version of WATCH and iPhone 5C will continue to seize the mid-range market. Walking on the subway, you can recognize the 5.5-inch iPhone 6 Plus at a glance, but you will tighten your belt for its high price of 6,000 yuan.

6. Let’s talk about the spirit of contract

"****, why is China not included in this launch?"

I believe this is the first reaction of most netizens. With Cook taking office, Apple has attached unprecedented importance to China. It came to China for inspection, launched the iPhone in China, and even provided simultaneous interpretation on the official Chinese website. But why was the iPhone 6 not launched in mainland China?

This reminds me of something.

Half a month before the iPhone was released, China's three major operators could no longer hold back and released pre-order pages before the product was released. The parameter photos were clearer than the other, and they also promised that the first release in China would be on September 19. There was even a Chinese version of the iPhone 6 video review on the Internet. If the iPhone 6 released by netizens is a result of Apple's poor confidentiality, then isn't it too uncontractual for an official operator to ignore the confidentiality agreement and release key parameters at will?

In the business world, the spirit of contract is the most basic guarantee. Foreign countries attach great importance to the spirit of contract. Why do some things that skirt the rules happen in China? I chatted with the head of a Chinese manufacturer last month. Their products will be available on the Apple Store this year. After the chat, the head repeatedly emphasized to me that I should sign an NDA confidentiality agreement and asked me not to leak it. This is the case with an accessory product, but domestic operators have exposed this core product in advance. What kind of behavior is this?

I don’t know the real reason why Apple did not launch the product in mainland China first this time. I just want to know how the three major operators will explain to users about the release of the machine on September 19th.

7. Finally, let’s talk about the stock price issue

During the Apple press conference, the stock price fluctuated greatly. When the Watch was released, the stock price of Apple plummeted by 2% and returned to the price of $98. Many people interpreted this as the capital market not being optimistic about the product. In fact, it is not. At a press conference, consumers look at the product, while the capital market looks at whether the expectations can be met and whether there can be new growth points and breakthroughs in profits. The short-term decline is just a venting of the emotions of investors in the capital market, and it is not a rational result.

The APPLE WATCH released at this conference was far below market expectations. Not only was the design mediocre (for the capital market, the round dial exceeded expectations), but the function did not include the hot medical function (friends who hold telemedicine stocks can sleep well), and the current market has doubts about the concept of "light luxury goods", so the stock price naturally fell. However, due to the good news of the large-screen iPhone and the release of APPLE Pay, a business with a new profit growth point, it is good news for Apple in the medium term. The specific trend of Apple's stock price will be determined after the first-day sales on September 20-21 are announced.

In general, there were both praises and criticisms about Apple's press conference. I don't like to completely deny or completely affirm. Compared with perfunctory analysis and comments, all of the above are based on my personal understanding and views of the technology industry after tracking it for a long time.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.