"Naruto" ends: Is the domestic Naruto industry chain also over?

Have you ever watched "Naruto"? This comic that has touched tens of millions of people for 15 years will end on the 10th of next month. The news has triggered heated discussions among a generation. Most people born in the 1980s and 1990s have watched Naruto. According to the data from Baidu Index from September 2013 to the present, the age group ratio is 15% under 19 years old, 48% between 20 and 29 years old, and 26% between 30 and 39 years old. The male and female ratios are 85% and 15% respectively. The influence of Naruto on males born in the 1980s and 1990s cannot be underestimated. Now that Naruto is about to end, it may mean that the industrial chain surrounding Naruto will also suffer a serious impact.

The influence of Naruto cannot be underestimated

Do you know how popular Naruto is? Do you know its value to the domestic Internet? The easiest way is to search Baidu Index.

According to Baidu Index, the average value from January 2012 to October 2014 is 510,000 for "Naruto". Without comparison, there is no reference. During the same period, the average Baidu Index of Youku was 490,000, JD.com was about 300,000, and the popular variety show "Happy Camp" was only 220,000.

This anime has been in the top ten of Baidu's hot search list for many years. Youku, which has powerful video content resources, can barely match it, while JD.com, which relies on selling goods, has only 3/5 of its volume. The most popular variety show in China, Happy Camp, is even further behind. The influence of Naruto is obvious.

To add two more sets of data, the BAT Big Three basically dominate most of the Internet, and the average Baidu Index of "Baidu", "Taobao" and "QQ" during the same period were 510,000, 1.05 million and 420,000 respectively. In addition, the average Baidu Index of popular games CF, DNF and LOL during the same period were 120,000, 200,000 and 250,000 respectively.

Behind the influence is a huge business opportunity. The industrial chain derived from Naruto has long been an important part of the domestic Internet. When Naruto is about to end, the related industrial chain will inevitably be damaged, just like when a star is at the peak of his career, his commercial value is huge, but once he retires, his commercial influence immediately declines sharply. For example, Li Na, who just retired, may still be popular, but she is no longer popular.

The animation industry can be divided into four parts: comics, animation, games, and peripheral products. The Naruto industry chain is already quite complete. After its completion, each industry chain will be impacted to some extent, with the comics market being the first to bear the brunt.

The comics industry is the first to be affected

The end of Naruto will first affect the comics industry. Let's take Li Na's example. After Li Na retired, how many people still paid attention to tennis matches? In fact, most (pseudo) fans pay attention to Li Na, not the tennis matches themselves. There are many such examples, such as Liu Xiang on hurdles, Messi on Barcelona, ​​and Naruto has a similar impact on the animation industry.

The comics, which have been serialized for 15 years, have accumulated a large number of readers across all age groups. Many people were still in junior high school when they first came into contact with Naruto. At this age, they might have read many other comics. However, ten years have passed, and the former teenagers have become adults. Their enthusiasm for comics has dropped significantly. They follow Naruto because they still have the feelings of their youth and are attracted by the high-quality plots. It is very difficult to pick up a new comic at the age of 24 or 25, because the focus has changed greatly. With entering society, comics are no longer the main theme of life. (Of course, the other two of the three major comics, "One Piece" and "Bleach", have to be followed, and it is also worthwhile to start a new comic like "Attack on Titan". However, few people have the patience to continue to follow "Detective Conan", who have been elementary school students for thousands of years. It is really too late.)

The ending of Naruto means the end of a generation's comic book days. The loss of a large number of comic book readers is a loss to the comic book market. However, the greater loss may not be in the comic book market, but in the derived Naruto game market.

Of course, looking at both sides, the completion of Naruto is also good for comics. Some young users who are still in the comics era will look for other alternative anime due to the gap created by the completion of Naruto, which gives other comic authors opportunities.

The Naruto-themed game market will suffer a direct impact

Compared with the impact on the comics market, the ending of Naruto has the biggest impact on Naruto-themed games. The ending means a decline in enthusiasm. The enthusiasm for the original work has weakened, and the enthusiasm for derivative games will also be greatly reduced. A simple example is that when the first season of "Where Are We Going, Dad?" was popular, Hunan Satellite TV launched a game of the same name. It received a million downloads on the first day of its launch, and exceeded 3 million in three days. After the first season of "Where Are We Going, Dad?" ended, the game of the same name disappeared.

In addition to the Naruto Online, which Tencent purchased the copyright and cooperated with Bandai Games to adapt, there are countless Naruto-themed PC games, web games, and mobile games. There are 1,096 applications for "Naruto" on Wandoujia, most of which are games. When Naruto ended, most games also lost their fun and attention value. Naruto is a rare game theme, and losing this theme is a big loss for the game market.

The comics-related industry will also be affected

Similarly, Naruto has ended, and its popularity has declined, so the sales of Naruto-related products will also be affected. Searching for Naruto on Taobao shows that there are more than 70,000 items, including clothing, dolls, accessories, etc. This shows that Naruto also has considerable market value for the retail industry, and the sales of its related products will inevitably be affected after its completion.

The manga is finished, but the animation is still there, and the popularity of Naruto will continue for a while

The only thing that can make the game and surrounding industry chains feel relieved is that the comics are finished, but the animation is still there. With the current progress of the animation, it is entirely possible to broadcast it for another year, which can somewhat cushion the impact on games and peripheral products.

Of course, there will be many people looking forward to Masashi Kishimoto developing some extended plots based on "Naruto", such as "Rock Lee's Youth Full Power Ninja Legend" drawn by Kenshi Taira who once served as Kishimoto's assistant, and "Uchiha Sasuke's Sharingan Legend" which is also drawn by Kenshi Taira and is about to be released. These derivative works can more or less retain some of the warmth of Naruto.

Of course, it would be even better if Kishimoto could make a Naruto-derived movie every year. Not only would it satisfy the wishes of many fans, but it would also maintain the development of the Naruto industry chain. Most importantly, the theatrical versions would still make money. In the Japanese market, both the theatrical versions of "Snow Princess' Ninja Scrolls" and "Road to Ninja" have sold more than 1 billion yen at the box office, which are 1.46 billion and 1.37 billion respectively, equivalent to RMB 83 million and 78 million. If they can be introduced to China in the form of copyright, it is still possible to make another 100 million. However, the prerequisite is to obtain approval from the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television.

The activities of using Naruto to "cheat" traffic will also be frustrated

Since there are so many Naruto fans, many websites use Naruto to attract traffic. It is difficult to explain this with statistics, but Naruto fans have suffered from Naruto traffic "scams" to varying degrees. Among them, those who "cheat" traffic by reposting some preview posts and analysis posts are still considered to be ethical, while some small sites are obviously using clickbait to cheat traffic. After Naruto ended, it lost its popularity, and traffic dealers will also be distressed by this.

In addition, the piracy industry chain around Naruto will also be hit to a certain extent. Naruto has always been free for domestic netizens to watch, and many comic websites use Naruto as a sign to attract traffic and retain users. After the end of the series, comic websites will inevitably lose some traffic, and the website's revenue capacity will also decline.

An open ending may lead to a turning point

It is said that in order to not make the fans of Zoro and Naruto sad, Kishimoto will set an open ending. For classic anime, the ending of the big group is actually a flaw. The fact that Slam Dunk did not have a happy ending made countless people reminisce about it, which is also the brilliance of Takehiko Inoue. However, the happy ending that Rumiko Takahashi gave to Inuyasha was not accepted by fans. Kishimoto's open ending is more acceptable to fans, and the open ending also leaves room for the subsequent derivative content of Naruto and the Naruto industry chain. If this is the case, Kishimoto has done a good thing with good intentions, which is good for everyone.

The end of "Naruto" is not only the end of a generation's comic book experience, but more importantly, it seems that the domestic Internet will be missing something. It is worth looking forward to that Master AB, who has always been good at leaving suspense, has once again aroused the interest of fans. After the comic series ended on November 10, it is rumored that the theater version on December 6 will be a new beginning, and Naruto fans can still look forward to it.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.