WeChat Phonebook snatches food from the tiger's mouth: challenging operators again

On November 11, just as Alibaba's Double Eleven campaign was in full swing and entered the second half, and finally hit the sales red line of 57.1 billion, WeChat unexpectedly made a big move and officially launched the "WeChat Phonebook" application. After logging in to WeChat with one click, users can talk directly with WeChat friends. The overall interactive interface, process and experience are no different from making calls on mobile phones, and it is free. This is the rhythm of competing with Alibaba for headlines.

After gradually eliminating SMS, WeChat is taking over again

It has been a year and a half since the battle between WeChat and OTT. At that time, operators complained that WeChat would seriously increase network load and intended to charge WeChat. Tencent was once pushed to the forefront. In the end, because the three major operators had different opinions, after mediation by Tencent's senior management and multiple rounds of negotiations, China Unicom was the first to form an alliance with WeChat and launch WeChat VoLTE. China Telecom and China Mobile finally had to accept the unstoppable reality of WeChat and even began to cooperate with WeChat.

WeChat has had a huge impact on operators. Last year, operators' SMS revenues fell only slightly, but this year China Mobile has announced that it will make SMS free next year and count it as data services. It can be said that operators' SMS revenues have been confiscated - not by WeChat, but by advanced technology and business models.

Operators have only two core revenue sources: voice and data services. However, voice revenue is also suffering a setback. According to the latest report released by market research firm Juniper Research, in 2014, due to the impact of OTT, network operators around the world lost $14 billion in voice and SMS data revenue, a 26% year-on-year drop from 2013. In the first half of this year, the data revenue of US mobile operators exceeded that of voice for the first time.

In May this year, mobile QQ launched real-time voice calls and placed them in a prominent position. The overall function and experience are very similar to the WeChat phone book launched today, but it has not attracted much attention - the audience and attention of mobile QQ are far less than WeChat. In addition to OTT applications, system-level actions such as iPhone WIFI calls are also persuading users to stop using traditional voice calls. It is only a matter of time before Google, Xiaomi, and Lenovo follow suit, but the impact of these on Chinese mobile operators is far less than WeChat. The reason why iPhone WIFI calls are not a big deal is that its coverage is less than 1/5 of WeChat. The "pigeon cage principle" prevents people using iPhones from talking to people in the Android camp, and they still have to use traditional voice. Similarly, mobile QQ and Yixin voice calls will not have such a big impact.

"Saving money" is a rigid demand. It can be expected that in a few months, WeChat Phonebook will gradually become another must-have application. Although about half of Chinese people do not use smartphones and WeChat, these people themselves do not generate much voice income. That is to say, most voice calls are now made by WeChat users. Operators can only hope that the quality of WeChat voice calls is not as good as traditional voice calls - but the problem is that WeChat voice is based on the quality of data networks. Operators turn to traffic management, and building a large 4G network to improve network quality is a must. Obviously, WeChat has once again snatched food from the tiger's mouth.

In addition to operators, will the phonebook application be affected?

WeChat chose to independently develop a "WeChat Phonebook" instead of giving "Voice" a front menu on WeChat. Of course, it is not because WeChat products cannot bear the burden. The core reason is that these two applications have completely different purposes. WeChat is a social platform for life based on instant messaging and social interaction, and with public accounts, it has become a super app; while WeChat Phonebook is a phonebook application that solves the problem of "real-time calls", but it is more than that.

If it can only satisfy the purpose of making phone calls, it would be a waste of the Internet and App capabilities. WeChat Phonebook is an application, so many functions can be expanded, such as address book management, synchronous backup of address books, built-in special numbers, and address book blocking functions - just like what Sogou Number Pass is doing. If WeChat Phonebook becomes a regular application for making phone calls, it will be a substitute for Sogou Number Pass, 360 Caller Assistant, Xiaomi Yellow Pages, and TouchPal Phone Assistant. In fact, Tencent has tested WeChat Phonebook on a small scale earlier, but it does not support calls. It is a copycat version of Sogou Number Pass.

Interestingly, Sogou's Number Pass also has an "ambition" to be an O2O portal for local life. Based on the phone book, local life services are integrated. Since many stores, businesses, property management companies, hospitals, etc. use landlines, after being integrated into the Number Pass application, Number Pass becomes a telephone yellow pages navigation. People use this service through it, just like visiting websites through navigation such as hao123 in the PC era. Number Pass can obtain value through advertising, profit sharing, etc.

In the short term, this part of the dream will not be extinguished. First, it is impossible for the merchant number to appear in the WeChat address book, unless the merchant's external interface is WeChat in the future; second, even if the first point is realized, WeChat's O2O will rely on public accounts and Dianping, and it is unlikely to be based on voice. However, in the long run, if the WeChat address book really replaces the operator's voice, or is more popular than traditional voice, the impact on existing address book applications can be imagined.

What does WeChat get? A new business model for a new generation of operators

If the operators rebound, another round of WeChat and OTT war is inevitable. Although WeChat has been down enough, I hope there will be no more complications - people rely too much on WeChat. However, since WeChat dares to do this, it must have been prepared, or reached some kind of tacit understanding with the operators.

But if people use WeChat to achieve functions similar to voice and SMS, WeChat will become a new generation of communication operators. Traditional operators will completely become pipelines, becoming "traffic operators" instead of "communication operators". Therefore, some of the current business models of operators are also effective for WeChat. Specifically, I have already analyzed the voice function of mobile QQ before, so I would like to quote it directly as follows:

1. Enterprise services, such as call center, enterprise integrated cluster network (enterprise integrated communication solution), group ring back tone, telephone conference, etc.;

2. Information services: China Mobile 12580 and China Telecom 114 provide users with voice information services through backward charging and other modes, such as booking hotels and air tickets, asking for directions, checking weather and buying tickets, etc. They are important rivals of Internet O2O giants such as Dianping.com, and are regarded as a new mobile search in India. They can be combined with the "O2O based on phonebook" mentioned above.

3. Music business, personal ringtones. This business makes China Mobile Music Base the largest digital music entity. That is to say, in the future when you call someone, you may hear different ringtones. Just like emoticons, WeChat can be used to sell them for money.

4. Direct charging. What if WeChat suddenly charges for voice calls after users have become so dependent on it that their friends and relationships are all on it, and the operator itself does not do much voice calls? WeChat has not promised to be free forever - and similar promises made by companies are not reliable. However, the possibility is still very small - isn't it because WeChat, Tencent and even the Internet are what they are today that they are free?

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.