The value of WeChat phone book is not overestimated

After the launch of WeChat Phone Book, my first interpretation of the article, " WeChat Phone Book is here, snatching food from the tiger's mouth again ", was questioned by many people, most of whom thought that I overestimated the power of WeChat and was suspected of flattery. Although whether the commentator is optimistic or pessimistic about WeChat has little impact on it, I still want to respond to some of the doubts about the article.

1. Several typical issues about WeChat phone book

1. WeChat Phone Book has already been internally tested to version 2.0 in May. Isn’t this a completely new launch?

Someone dug up a question on Zhihu in May about "WeChat Phone Book" to explain that WeChat Phone Book is not a new product at all. I have mentioned in the article that WeChat Phone Book in the past was just a contact management software that did not support voice calls and was even weaker than Sogou Phone Book. This time, WeChat Phone Book is a combination of QQ Voice Communication (launched in May), QQ Contacts (previously integrated with WeChat), and the old version of WeChat Phone Book. The revolutionary change is that it supports voice calls. Tencent's internal positioning should also be a new product, with a version number of 1.0*, and there is no historical version on the App Store.

2. If the WeChat phone book really has such a big impact on operators, why didn’t operators of WeChat’s voice (video) calls and QQ’s voice calls replace traditional voice calls?

WeChat does not have the option of "real-time voice". It appeared before 5.0 but disappeared for some reason (it may be to leave room for improvement, or it may be that the experience is not good, I dare not speculate). Now there is only "real-time walkie-talkie", which is a simulated walkie-talkie experience, which is very different from making a phone call. Even if WeChat has real-time voice calls, if it is not placed in the most conspicuous position and hidden very deeply, it will be difficult for users to try. The existing video calls do not conform to the communication habits of most scenarios. Taking a step back, if WeChat puts a "real-time call" menu in a prominent position, it will still not have a big impact. Because it is not fully integrated with the "call experience" and "mobile phone address book".

The relationship in the phone book and the experience of making phone calls are what really attract users. This is why the "real-time voice" built into mobile QQ has not attracted large-scale applications. The WeChat phone book is launched as an independent application. It can be a new type of phone application in the future, and it can go back to the past "number management assistant" stage in the future. The most important thing about the WeChat phone book this time is that it conforms to the habit of users making phone calls.

3. Free calls have been around for a long time and are doing very well. Why haven’t they affected the operators’ voice services?

Before the WeChat phone book, there were indeed free calls or Internet calls. In the PC era, there were cheap calls like Skype, which has now declined along with the PC; in the mobile era, there are VoIP phone applications. In 2012, the free phone "Youxin" was launched. Its users are mainly low- and middle-income groups such as migrant workers, students and white-collar workers. Public data shows that it has 70 million registered users and 7 million daily active users.

The scale of free calls like Youxin is very impressive, so why is it not resisted by operators? It is very simple. Youxin is a communication solution based on traditional voice and Internet network technology. It can make free calls to mobile phones and landlines without the need for the other party to install it. It is supplemented by the income generated by "backward businesses" such as advertising platform business and mobile game business. Part of the voice revenue will eventually be distributed to operators. VoIP phones and operators are a win-win cooperation. In the future, operators may increase the process of VoIP openness and cooperation.

4. Why are Wi-Fi calls on iOS devices and other system-level calls not boycotted?

Every system, every mobile phone manufacturer, and every social app can provide real-time voice call functions based on data services. The biggest problem is that they do not have as wide coverage as WeChat currently has. Calls between circles still cost money, and the probability is very high. In the past, operators promoted short-number cluster networks in colleges and universities, and several students could make calls as much as they wanted on a monthly basis, because most calls occurred outside the cluster network. If the number of users supported by the cluster network is expanded from 10 to 10,000, one million, or 100 million, there will definitely be completely different results. How big is a network? The number of WeChat users is already close to the scale of China Mobile users.

2. Some misunderstandings about WeChat phone book

In addition to the above conventional issues, there are some rather far-fetched reasons listed below:

1. WeChat phone book is not free, and it is not much cheaper than traditional voice calls!

The WeChat address book requires data traffic. “Assuming 1M per minute, it would cost about 0.04 yuan per minute. The lowest voice call rate available on the market is 0.06 yuan per minute.”

According to calculations, WeChat voice consumes about 300k (not 1M) of data per minute. If converted according to some preferential packages, the unit price is 0.01 yuan. The high data rate is to ensure the call quality. According to the IEEE voice compression specification in the communications industry, there is still a lot of room for further compression. Doesn't traditional voice also reduce quality and expand capacity by half-rate and other means? In addition, in many cases, the data traffic belongs to monthly packages or WIFI environments, so the average cost per minute is far less than 1 cent.

In the market, voice calls can be purchased at 0.06 yuan per minute in extreme cases, but the market standard rate is still above 0.1 yuan. Therefore, although WeChat Phonebook is not completely free, it can be considered basically free, at least it will be perceived by users as free.

2. The operation of WeChat free calls is complicated and the experience is not that good!

"When the screen is locked, to answer a free call from WeChat, you need to unlock the phone, find the WeChat app, open it, and so on. It is less concise than a call from the address book." Once you open the phone and use it, you will know that this is a false accusation, because WeChat has a similar answering interface to answering calls on mobile phones, which is not so complicated. After integrating the address book management function, the experience is even better. Of course, the failure of WeChat to bind today only temporarily affects the experience. According to a sample survey of Weibo and Moments, users who normally use this function do not have many complaints about the experience.

3. WeChat is only used by a small number of users who are just trying it out, and it is not popular among the general public.

"Among friends, WeChat Phonebook users are still mainly from first-tier cities. Most of them are not sensitive to the charges and are more of a trial user. Almost no one in second-tier and third-tier cities and rural areas is using it now." - WeChat Phonebook has only been out for less than a day. Any product will continue to spread from seed users. WeChat is more concentrated in first-tier and second-tier cities, while mobile QQ is relatively sinking. The inability to bind the WeChat Phonebook function for more than half a day affects its acquisition of new users. At present, I only have dozens of friends who have opened it, but don't underestimate the dissemination power of WeChat's social function. Of course, this depends on Tencent's determination to promote WeChat Phonebook.

3. Industry impact of WeChat phone book

I am not saying that WeChat Phonebook voice will completely replace traditional voice calls, but it will share a part of the voice call demand, and the proportion will increase. First, there are more than 1.2 billion mobile phone users in China, and WeChat users account for about half of them (a year ago). To call those who do not use WeChat, you can only use VoIP phones or operators; second, users still use voice calls in some scenarios, such as when the network conditions are poor; third, operators will also have some countermeasures, the core of which is VoIP voice calls.

Operators can directly open up VoIP, allowing users to make free Internet calls based entirely on their mobile phone contacts, but this possibility is too small. Free VoIP requires backward revenue to subsidize, such as the advertising platform and mobile game business owned by Youxin Free Phone. If operators suddenly offer free voice services, and the backward business model is not established, how can they support network construction and maintenance, and how can they support such a large company? In addition, if the three operators are out of step (which is very likely), it will be difficult to promote contact-book VoIP.

It is very likely that the gradual opening of VoIP will be accelerated. Fetion has already launched Internet phone, and it is more likely that operators will accelerate cooperation with Youxin and other free phone services to compete with WeChat Phonebook.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.