Will Internet TV make a comeback in 2015?

After more than half a year of chaos, the Internet TV industry has finally quieted down.

Video websites, TV manufacturers, licensees and small entrepreneurs who once actively or passively participated in the Internet TV gold rush began to lose their voice collectively, as if they had returned to the state before 2013, as if nothing had ever happened.

LeTV, once the most popular TV brand, has not released any new TV products for more than half a year, and the LeTV Box is still not on sale. The three recent press conferences they held included smart toys, car UI systems, and LeTV phones that may be launched this afternoon, but there was no super TV; the same is true for LeTV's old rival Xiaomi. The Xiaomi TV 3, which was originally scheduled to be launched at the end of last year, has been repeatedly postponed, and the launch date is far away; Sohu Video also once vigorously established a hardware team, but the news that NetEase Technology recently received is that this team has been quietly compressed or even disbanded; PPTV was not spared either. At the beginning of last year, Lenovo representative Lu Yan became the new CEO of PPTV, which brought hope of hardware redemption to this somewhat marginalized video website, but the situation changed too quickly, and Lu Yan was replaced by Suning representative Fan Zhijun before the end of the year.

For these participants, who are caught between the collapsing old order and the yet-to-be-established new order, Internet TV is a piece of fat meat that is within easy reach, but it is not easy to get. They are all hesitating, waiting, and waiting for a common answer: When will the spring of Internet TV come?

What we can expect is that as the wheel of history rolls forward, this day will not be too far away; but what is worth discussing is whether the old system should be destroyed or rebuilt?

Slowly moving forward amidst trial and suppression, bargaining and compromise may be the main theme of the Internet TV industry in 2015.

Current situation: Regulatory problems to be solved

When talking about Internet TV, we have to mention regulation. Many industry insiders interviewed believe that regulation has become the biggest problem hindering the progress of the entire industry.

Since June last year, the Internet TV industry's competent authority, the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television (hereinafter referred to as "SARFT"), has issued a series of bans, requiring the removal of video apps and rectification of illegal terminals.

This means that the video content on Internet TV must be strictly distinguished from the content on the public Internet, the video websites' access to the living room will be blocked, and their profit model will also be limited.

Although the series of rectification measures taken by the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television have attracted a lot of criticism, in fact they are based on a basis, which is the "Operation and Management Requirements for Institutions Holding Internet TV Licenses" (referred to as "Document No. 181") issued by the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television in 2011.

Document No. 181 stipulates that Internet TV content must be connected to an integrated broadcast control platform approved by the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television (also known as the "license holder") to be compliant. So far, there are seven license holders: China Network Television, Shanghai Media Group, Wasu Media, Southern Media, Hunan Television, China Radio International and China National Radio.

Handing over the copyrighted content that they have paid for to the license holder for operation? Many heads of video websites said in interviews with reporters that it is simply impossible to do so. The reasons are: first, video websites have no say and are in a passive position. Cooperation means making wedding clothes for the license holder; second, there is no reasonable profit-sharing model at present. Video websites are unwilling to hand over the copyrights they have bought with real money to the license holder for free or at a bargain price.

In fact, whether it is a video website represented by LeTV or a latecomer represented by Xiaomi , they all hope to build their own ecosystem rather than simply being a content provider. The benefits of building their own ecosystem are self-evident: first, they can find profit points in hardware, application stores, user payments, advertising revenue, etc.; second, the strategy of hardware expansion and content charging is easier to expand their influence quickly; third, after gaining TV users, they can provide other services such as e-commerce, education, and medical care in the living room.

In order to build their own ecosystem, all major manufacturers rushed into this field in 2013, and Document No. 181 was already dead in name only. In 2014, the problem came. After all, Internet TV is not a pure incremental market. It is different from pure Internet forms such as video, search, social networking, and games.

What is honey to one may be poison to another. The tide of Internet TV has brought serious challenges to the old radio and television system. To a certain extent, Internet TV is breaking down monopolies and privileges, and its bright prospects also represent the establishment of new monopolies and new privileges.

It is not surprising that the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television took action to rectify the situation.

A careful analysis of the various rectification measures taken by the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television reveals that the core is still the “controllability” of content, which is a consideration beyond the industrial and economic levels. Of course, the intention of protecting the old system, slowing down the pace of the Internet forces, and striving for a time window for transformation is also contained in it.

In short, the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television has dealt a heavy blow to the Internet TV industry and put it back on track.

The person who tied the bell must untie it. If the currently lonely Internet TV industry wants to prosper again, it must observe the other party's words and wait for the policy to be relaxed.

Response: Guerrilla warfare continues

Every policy from the top has its countermeasures from the bottom.

The temporary stagnation of the Internet TV industry has not completely dampened the enthusiasm of participants. They have been looking for a viable means of survival, such as teaming up with licensees, exploring other application forms, and technical circumvention.

Document No. 181 objectively improved the industry status of the license holder, making it a popular target for video websites and TV manufacturers. Last year, Youku Tudou acquired a stake in China Media Group, iQiyi's Internet TV division was "incorporated" by Galaxy, Alibaba acquired a stake in Wasu, and LeTV also urgently announced the establishment of a joint venture with Chongqing Radio and Television when it encountered a license crisis.

It has become a trend for video websites to team up with licensing authorities, but this seems more like a move of self-protection, and how much real significance it has remains to be seen.

However, the ecological dream will not sit still and wait for death. We can see that many manufacturers are bypassing the sensitive area of ​​video and trying to seek new growth points in other fields such as games, education, e-commerce, and medical care. However, the total number of Internet TV users is still small, the ecosystem has not yet taken shape, killer applications have not appeared, user habits need to be cultivated, and the interaction method needs to be improved. For various reasons, the development of Internet TV bypassing the core of video is not smooth.

Fortunately, although video websites cannot legitimately provide content for Internet TV, users can use WIFI to project video content played on mobile phones, PADs, and PCs to TVs through protocols such as DLNA, IGRS, and Miracast. Although the steps are cumbersome, it is also a roundabout way to enter the living room.

As a technical means and a software function with almost no cost, multi-screen interaction via WIFI is unlikely to be targeted by the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television. Even if the video app itself does not provide such a function, users can still use third-party software to achieve it based on the openness of the Android system. The State Administration of Radio, Film and Television wants to completely block the channel for Internet content to freely enter the TV, and there is no other way except to force Internet TV to use its own operating system.

It is reported that the TV operating system TVOS1.0 developed by the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television has been vigorously promoted within the system. However, a senior executive of a TV manufacturer interviewed by a reporter was not optimistic about it. "TVOS1.0 has poor experience and openness, and cannot be compared with mainstream TV UI at all."

This means that under the premise of unchanged policies, multi-screen interactive technology will continue to be popular. Of course, many third-party aggregation video apps, such as Taijie Video, TVCat, and VST, can actually operate as usual.

Fighting guerrilla warfare and waiting for liberalization is the common mentality of many industry participants.

Waiting for the dawn

No matter what twists and turns it goes through, the popularization of Internet TV, which is popular among users, is inevitable.

Data shows that the current number of cable TV users is 224 million, and IPTV is 32 million. In 2013, there were about 10 million Internet TV users, and currently there are about 30 million Internet TV users. Internet TV has reached the number of users that IPTV has accumulated in 8 years in just two years.

It is not difficult to predict that there will be even more significant growth in 2015.

Looking at the current situation of the traditional TV industry, we will find that this trend is even more obvious. According to statistics from Aowei Cloud Network, the total volume of the domestic color TV market last year was 44.61 million units, a year-on-year decline of 6.6%, the first decline in 30 years. Sales were 146.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.5%. The performance of manufacturers such as TCL, Skyworth, and Changhong has also declined to varying degrees.

The trend of Internet TV replacing traditional TV is self-evident.

However, as an extension of the Internet to traditional industries, the growth of Internet TV shipments does not mean prosperity for the entire industry. In the era of the Internet of Everything, hardware is becoming a medium for realizing content and services, and its importance has changed dramatically.

If the Internet TV industry wants to develop rapidly, content and applications are the key, and building an open and healthy ecological environment is an urgent task.

The State Administration of Radio, Film and Television wants to build this ecosystem, as do video websites, home appliance manufacturers and startups. Content and copyrights are scattered among several video giants, while the application market is fragmented. In 2015, if Internet TV wants to develop healthily, resource integration and platform building may become a breakthrough point.

How to build an open and win-win platform under the premise that the content can be managed and controlled, so that multiple parties can benefit and contribute their own efforts, and users can see the content they want to see and experience the services they want to experience. This is a question that all participants need to think about.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.