Drones are now popular, how can we develop them into large-scale commercial use?

The road to commercialization of drones: Is it reliable for e-commerce companies to use them to deliver goods?

At the CES exhibition held in Las Vegas in January, almost half of the 14 drone exhibitors were from China. Drones produced by Shenzhen-based DJI Innovations are now well-known among European and American enthusiasts. Since last year, the interest in drones in China has been rapidly increasing, and it seems to be a fashionable thing to talk about drones.

Wang Feng's proposal and Taobao's first drone delivery have made drones a hot topic in recent days. But now it seems that this is still a very small circle, and drone products are far from entering the stage of consumer electronics. If using drones to propose marriage is not surprising, then using them to deliver goods and then commercialize them is a bit difficult.

First of all, there is the cost issue, which involves not only shipping costs but also manpower amortization. Drone operation requires professionals, and judging from the Taobao drone delivery process in Beijing last week, it is impossible to sit on the sofa in the living room and watch the drone with the package slowly land on the balcony. In fact, after the drone arrives, the courier needs to deliver the package to the customer for signature.

Batch delivery is a way to reduce unit costs. Drone delivery requires at least two people to deliver one package at a time, which is obviously not economical. Imagine that in addition to mass commodity delivery, if drones are used to deliver customized goods and services, and this delivery method itself is one of the demands of enjoying this service, it may open up sales.

In addition, there are upper limits on the battery capacity, load weight, and flight time of drones. For example, Amazon 's drones can carry up to 5 pounds (about 2.27 kilograms) of packages and fly for about 25 minutes. The reality is that the central warehouses of express delivery companies in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai are generally located in the suburbs. If drones are used to deliver directly to users in central areas more than 20 kilometers away, it may be difficult for the aircraft. Therefore, some industry insiders have suggested that it may be more feasible to test drone delivery from central warehouses to various branch outlets.

An interesting phenomenon has emerged in recent days: most express delivery companies and drone manufacturers have responded to reporters' interview requests by saying "I don't want to be interviewed right now" or "It involves many issues and it's inconvenient to respond." Judging from their general tendency to avoid excessive exposure, industry insiders are indeed concerned about this and are worried that regulators will "cut down" this emerging industry.

Take Taobao's trial as an example. The entire delivery process was carried out outside the Fifth Ring Road. It was said that the previously selected delivery locations involved areas within the Fifth Ring Road, but due to temporary control reasons, delivery was limited to the Tongzhou area. According to the organizers of this event, flights with an altitude of less than 100 meters and a field of view of 500 meters do not require approval, but the regulatory level has not yet drawn a clear "red line" in a targeted manner. Taobao previously said in an interview with a reporter from the "First Financial Daily" that there is no subsequent commercialization plan for drone delivery.

Even in the United States, where drones are more popular, regulatory forces have not yet given a thumbs up to the commercial operation of drones. As early as the end of 2013, Amazon, an international e-commerce giant, proposed the drone delivery plan PrimeAir, and the company is actively promoting related business and technical research, allowing drones to work with delivery vehicles to deliver packages to customers in 30 minutes or less, advancing the pace of commercialization.

However, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has not approved Amazon's drone plan. It recently allowed the use of drones for crop growth monitoring and real estate companies to take pictures of houses, and authorized BP to use commercial drones in the empty Alaska area to monitor oil drilling platforms and pipelines, which are not related to express delivery.

Wang Xiaoxing, an analyst at Analysys International, told the China Business News that from a technological perspective, drone delivery does represent a potential development direction for future logistics, which is one of the reasons why e-commerce and logistics companies are actively experimenting with it. However, when it comes to commercialization, it is still difficult. On the one hand, drones are not technically capable of the precision, efficiency and low cost required for commercialization; on the other hand, the right to speak on "whether it can fly" is not in the hands of express and e-commerce companies, and needs to be relaxed by the approval authorities.

At present, the scope of application of drones is very broad, such as aerial photography, agriculture, real estate, firefighting, Wi-Fi hotspots, line inspection, surveying and mapping, wildlife protection, etc. In contrast, the commercialization of drones for logistics and distribution still has a long way to go. It seems that using drones to propose marriage may be more reliable than sending express delivery.

Drones are popular, but there are more and more problems ahead.

When drones are no longer limited to military use, they have evolved into various shapes and sizes, and the shipment volume is very large. At this year's CES exhibition in Las Vegas, the reporter saw many commercial drones from manufacturers around the world, including large and sturdy drones used by Amazon for express delivery and toy-sized mini drones that cost less than $150.

However, despite the increasing number of industry application scenarios, the dark cloud hanging over the drone industry is the lack of finalization of relevant laws and regulations such as drone supervision and standards.

There are no clear regulations on takeoff approval

In recent days, the news that Taobao uses drones to deliver packages has been hotly discussed online. In fact, on the next day, a small aircraft control working meeting involving multiple parties was held. The theme was to investigate and explain the Taobao incident and to clarify the responsibilities of the relevant drone units. During the meeting, representatives from the Beijing Air Force, Civil Aviation, Municipal Public Security Bureau, Public Security Corps, Press Office, China AOPA, and express delivery industry all participated in the discussion.

According to the content of the meeting that was circulated later, the Public Security Corps had already investigated the "whole flight process" of the day and pointed out that this behavior was unsafe. The Beijing Air Force said it was not aware of the incident because the flight behavior did not apply for flight activities and "did not meet" the current requirements of the aviation control regulations for drone flights.

The regulation of UAV flights is still in a relatively vague stage in China, where low-altitude flights have not yet been opened. According to the "Civil UAV Air Traffic Management Measures" issued by the Civil Aviation Administration of China on June 26, 2009, it is stipulated that "units and individuals organizing and implementing civil UAV activities shall apply for the establishment and use of airspace in accordance with the "General Aviation Flight Control Regulations" and other regulations, and accept flight activity management and air traffic services." This also means that civil UAV flights should be included in the scope of general aviation, but it is not clear what approval process UAVs need to go through for daily flights.

The 2013 drone pilot document was relatively specific, dividing drones into four types: micro, light, small and large. It explained the management of various drone pilots in isolated and integrated airspace. On April 30, 2014, the qualification management of drone pilots operating drones other than micro drones within visual range and drones operating beyond visual range in isolated airspace was handed over to China AOPA.

The above-mentioned China AOPA, full name of which is the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association of China, is an organization under the Civil Aviation Administration of China authorized to manage the drone-related industry. An AOPA insider revealed to reporters that the relevant application process for drone flights is currently being formulated and is expected to be released in the middle of this year. Even if the relevant regulations are released, it is still unknown whether there will be enough manpower for subsequent supervision.

In the United States, drone regulation is also a headache. In 2012, Congress passed a motion requiring the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to improve the management of non-military drones by 2015, but it was not until last year that drone flight areas began to be relaxed. Last September, the FAA allowed the film and video industry to use drones, and later, companies in the fields of real estate imaging, agricultural monitoring and aerial surveys, and oil fields also received permission.

E-commerce giant Amazon even wants to seek help from the US government to get permission to conduct drone flight tests in the United States. The company said in a letter to the FAA that due to restrictions on the use of drones in the United States, Amazon has been conducting test flights indoors and in other countries. Many companies believe that if the United States does not introduce rules for commercial drone flights as soon as possible, it will lag behind other countries in the drone market worth tens of billions of dollars.

Capital is rushing in, but technical standards are lacking

Although the relevant regulatory provisions are not yet clear, there are already many investors and even listed companies that are interested in the drone market.

In the capital market, Shandong Mining Machinery (002526.SZ), which mainly deals in coal mining and building materials machinery, has announced an investment of 41 million yuan to jointly establish a light multi-purpose short-range take-off and landing UAV manufacturing company with senior engineer Zhang Fusheng of Zhuhai Xingyu Aviation Technology Co., Ltd., and Tongyu Heavy Industry (300185.SZ), a casting and forging manufacturer, also announced that its subsidiary Changzhou Haijie Metallurgical Machinery Manufacturing Co., Ltd. and the 27th Institute of China Electronics Technology Group Corporation will cooperate in projects in the fields of UAV R&D and manufacturing, manned aircraft and UAV system applications. In addition, many private enterprises have begun to cooperate with universities or research institutes in the development of UAVs, with investments of hundreds of millions.

Fengfan Co., Ltd. (601700.SH) is one of them. In March 2013, it jointly invested with Northwestern Polytechnical University Changshu Research Institute Co., Ltd., Changshu United Model Aircraft Co., Ltd. and natural person Zhang Wei to establish a joint venture company, of which Fengfan Co., Ltd. holds 40% of the shares and is the largest shareholder, but it is also the only shareholder without any experience in UAVs. Prior to this, Northwestern Polytechnical University had many years of technology and experience in the development of military UAVs, and Zhang Wei was a leader in this research field, while Changshu United Model Aircraft Co., Ltd. has been immersed in the field of composite materials and UAV casing manufacturing for many years.

According to the latest news the reporter learned from Fengfan Co., Ltd., the drones developed by the company have been sold to the Changshu Public Security Bureau for daily patrols, and a Shandong company uses them for drone driving training. The company is also discussing with old customers such as the State Grid to use drones to complete high-voltage power line inspections.

However, Fengfan shares believes that in addition to the vague regulatory standards in the civil drone market, the country has not yet formed authoritative technical quality standards, which has to some extent lowered the competition threshold for domestic civil drones. "For example, some model aircraft manufacturers have 'upgraded' to drone manufacturers by purchasing flight control systems. Such companies do not have their own core technologies, and it is difficult to guarantee the performance and indicators of the manufactured drones, such as flight time, but they have also begun to occupy a certain market share."

This seems to raise another question: what should we do when the development and innovation of science and technology conflict with the current system? "The new scientific and technological revolution is not only a test of innovation ability, but also a test of science and technology policy." An academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering once called on the government to take positive actions in the implementation and application of independent innovation technologies, strengthen support and coordination, improve incentive mechanisms, and improve the policy environment to protect enterprises from continuing independent innovation, rather than simply killing them.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.