iPads are not selling well. Analyzing the story behind the tablet industry

Looking at the 2014 tablet shipment report, the numbers tell us that even the leader, Apple's iPad, is not selling well. The shipment of iPad, which has a global tablet market share of nearly 30%, has dropped significantly, and the growth rate of the tablet market has gradually slowed down. iPad sales in the first quarter of fiscal year 2015 were 21.4 million units, down 18% from 26 million units in the same period last year. Although it is not a terrible situation, the market development direction is tending towards saturation.

There is also good news. In 2015, Apple is expected to launch an "iPad Pro" with a 12.2 or 12.9-inch screen. It is speculated that it will be equipped with a keyboard and a stylus. In this way, it is more like an Apple version of the Surface Pro tablet. Regardless of who is imitating whom, it is time to change the conservative thinking on the iPad form factor.

The main reason for the negative growth of iPad is the erosion of large-screen mobile phones. Although the impressive sales data of iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus gave Apple CEO Cook a satisfactory answer, he may not be so comfortable. How to curb the decline in iPad sales in the first half of the year should be the most important thing. According to the previous forecast of KGI Securities, the sales of iPad in the first quarter of 2015 were only 10.1 million units, and only 7.8 million units in the second quarter. If there is no new product to stimulate the replacement, the overall sales of iPad will be even more pessimistic.

So what is the reason why the Apple iPad is gradually losing its market appeal? There are roughly four factors that restrict the iPad's continued growth momentum. Let's analyze them together below.

Reason 1: iPhone and iPad are at odds with each other

Yes, the primary reason for the sharp decline in iPad sales is the emergence of large-screen phones such as the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus. But in fact, when it comes to large-screen phones, Samsung and many domestic mobile phone manufacturers have implemented a blue ocean strategy, which theoretically would have affected iPad sales. But in fact, iPad sales were not affected at that time. Users generally recognize that the Android system experience is not as good as iOS, and coupled with the richness and stickiness of applications, the iPad still cannot be replaced by large-screen Android phones. Even users who had large-screen Android phones at that time would still be willing to buy another iPad.

The influence of Apple's own iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus large-size phones is obviously more direct. The user base of iPhone phones is quite large. Replacement users and new users who intend to choose a large-screen iPhone can easily find the sweet spot of two iOS products. Mobile phones are a rigid demand, and if you have both, you will naturally abandon the iPad. In order to seize the mobile phone market and win more user transfer rates from the Android large-screen phone camp, Apple's promotion of large-screen phones is understandable. They also realize that large-screen phones will cannibalize the iPad market.

In emerging markets such as China, first-time iPad buyers account for about 70%. Before buying an iPad, people were attracted by its large screen and powerful performance, but the size of the iPhone 6 Plus has already caught up to 5.5 inches, further narrowing the size of the iPad mini's 7.9 inches. The iPhone 6 Plus processor has also been upgraded to the A8 chip, so the iPad's differentiated advantage is not so obvious.

Excellent iOS apps on iPad can also be displayed well on 6 Plus, and more importantly, the phone can be used anytime and anywhere. Although the battery life and visual experience are still behind the iPad, the weight of portability and frequency of use is obviously higher than that of iPad.

Reason 2: Non-rigid demand leads to slow iPad iteration

There is no doubt that mobile phones are a rigid demand. The iPhone 6 Plus has a calling function that the iPad does not have, so the rigid demand attribute is revealed. Mobile phones are a communication tool that everyone cannot leave, which is equivalent to a media organ in the human body. The iPad cannot be held in one hand or put in a pocket, so it can only lie quietly under the pillow. Even users who have large-screen mobile phones occasionally take out the iPad to use, but most of the time it is idle, so young users directly give the iPad to their elders. This is enough to show that the decline in the attractiveness of the iPad is inevitable.

The iPad itself is not a rigid demand, nor is it a fast-moving consumer product, so the iteration pace is not too fast. Users use an iPad for a long time without replacing it, which inevitably leads to a decrease in iPad sales. This phenomenon is very similar to the situation where notebooks encounter market growth bottlenecks. Apple CEO Cook also said, "The iPad market has encountered a speed bump, and I find that this is the case in all walks of life."

Since iPads are used only in a relatively fixed environment, unlike iPhones, which are often held in the hand and used on the move, the possibility of damage is also reduced, so the return rate is naturally not high, and the demand for replacement is not very strong. Mobile phones, on the other hand, have a high usage rate and a high elimination rate, especially under the fierce competition of hardware performance. The iPad is increasingly reduced to a game toy, a small TV, and a reader. Now, with the continuous penetration of large-screen mobile phones, the iPad is too substitutable.

In addition to the continuous hardware updates, Apple has adopted different strategies for iPhone and iPad in terms of software. The latest iOS 8 still supports iPad 2, while iPad 2 was released with version 4.3, which has now gone through five versions. If Apple didn’t use authentic means, it would be easy to find ways to speed up the iPad replacement cycle from the software update aspect, but it obviously didn’t do so. Instead, it optimizes the fluency of old devices in each new generation of system, which is still very kind.

Reason 3: Lack of innovation, looking forward to iPad Pro

Apple's iPad lacks innovation. The iPad Air 2 released last year did not have any significant changes, it was just thinner and more powerful, while the iPad mini 3 simply changed the appearance and color, which greatly reduced the expectations of Apple fans. It is not easy for the iPad to find innovation.

There have been recent market rumors that Apple will launch a large-screen 12-inch iPad Pro, but no product details have been revealed. However, all the speculation and exposure of accessory information have more or less revealed the idea of ​​innovation. It is difficult to come up with new features around an iPad screen, and Apple's considerations are relatively conservative and slow. Compared with the Android tablet camp, products such as combination keyboards and detachable tablets are constantly being tried. Microsoft is also working on a full-platform strategy for Windows, especially the free strategy of Windows 10, which may also snatch some iPad users. On the contrary, the changes in the iPad are not obvious. Because it is not suitable for work scenarios, it has always been regarded as a toy rather than a tool.

This year, if Apple launches a new iPad Pro, it is likely to transform from an entertainment device to a productivity device. As the number of enterprise applications increases, more iPads for enterprises will be sold, which is the key to the cooperation between Apple and IBM. Cook also said at the earnings conference, "The real opportunity is to bring mobility to the enterprise and change the way people work."

Cook also mentioned that although Fortune 500 companies are using Apple products, they only deploy these devices to a small number of people. However, many companies have deployed Windows 8.1 tablets to their employees. Compared with iPads, corporate users prefer Windows 8.1 because corporate users need to provide effective productivity, and Windows 8.1 is more efficient and the multi-window mode switching is more convenient.

Reason 4: Product differences become smaller and pressure from the Android camp

It is reported that Apple will launch two new products next: one is a large-screen iPad, and the other is a small-size MacBook Air. Moreover, their screen sizes seem to be 12.9 inches. So, how can Apple prevent them from competing with each other in the market?

As Apple's product line lengthens, the specifications and sizes become closer, which inevitably leads to overlapping functions and usage methods between products. In addition, Apple gradually integrates system functions, which makes the distinction between Mac OS X and iOS systems increasingly blurred, making it difficult for users to directly and clearly find the advantages and features of products. Should I choose touch or non-touch? It seems to be a difficult question.

Touch helps iPad to have good performance in controllability, entertainment and mobility, but business office ability has always been a shortcoming. In fact, if, as previously speculated, iPad Pro provides a keyboard with excellent feel and a more integrated stylus device, it will definitely attract the interest of users, especially office users. However, the office attribute will affect the market opportunities of MacBook Air. For Apple, it is obviously a difficult choice to stimulate iPad users or retain the MacBook Air with good growth momentum.

In addition, Lenovo is worth noting in the Android camp, with shipments increasing by 9.1% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. Lenovo's success comes from innovation. If it weren't for innovation, it would be hard to explain why Lenovo is the only one in the market. The YOGA series in Lenovo's tablet product line is a product with a lot of ideas. From the sales point of view, it can also be said to be the mainstay of Lenovo's tablets. The sales of YOGA exceeded one million units in the first month of its launch. As of now, the high-end YOGA series products have accounted for 20% of shipments and more than 30% of sales. For Lenovo's success, YOGA innovation has played an indispensable role.

Flagship Android tablets represented by YOGA, plus a large number of low-end Android tablets that focus on price, have had a significant impact on the global shipments of iPad.

Written to the end:

iPad products have been around for five years, and after experiencing explosive growth, their pace has gradually slowed down. Under the influence of iPad, the tablet market has developed very maturely, and global tablet shipments have reached a high point. Competition among the star tablets re-launched by giant manufacturers has become increasingly fierce, and has begun to shift from homogeneity to differentiation. Entertainment is no longer the only label for tablets. Tablets are positioned more widely and have begun to penetrate into mobile office, commercial fields, and some industry markets. This year, the development of tablets should not compete for the market by simply upgrading hardware configurations and competing on price, but should think more about the differentiated development of products and the integration of ecosystems.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.