Xunlei, the "double happiness", still needs to be "observed outside the prison"

These two days, Thunder can be said to have "double happiness".

The first good news is that the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) has removed Xunlei from the 2014 "Malicious Market List". Xunlei is no longer on the "blacklist", and it is relieved that the depression it has suffered for many years has finally been lifted.

The second "good news" is that Thunder has finally stopped its path of losses. In its financial report released on March 12, we can see that Thunder's net profit in the fourth quarter of 2014 was US$1 million.

Although $1 million is not much, it is not easy for Xunlei. After all, its net loss in the same quarter of the previous year was $4.7 million, and its net profit in the previous quarter was only $300,000. After the "double happiness", can Xunlei, which has been controversial in copyright and other aspects for many years, live a good life? It may be too early to say.

Although it is a "double happiness", Thunder's crisis is far from over.

First of all, Xunlei is currently still in the "out-of-prison observation" stage.

Although Xunlei has temporarily left the "blacklist", the US Trade Office is still keeping a close eye on Xunlei, which has a "criminal record". As long as there is any slight movement in Xunlei, the US Trade Office will probably put Xunlei on the "list" again. I'm afraid it's not a pleasant feeling to be "re-imprisoned" for the second time.

Secondly, it is true that Xunlei is temporarily profitable, but to some extent, this profit is made at the expense of a "decline" in an important data.

In the fourth quarter of 2014, although Xunlei was profitable on paper, its important data was actually declining. Xunlei had 4.9 million subscribers in 2014, compared to 5.1 million in the previous year. Due to the domestic "clean network" policy, the reduction in subscribers should be concentrated in the fourth quarter of 2014. The decline in subscribers will inevitably lead to a decline in broadband costs. Xunlei's bandwidth costs in the fourth quarter were US$9.5 million, down 7.4% from the same period last year.

In this way, Xunlei has saved costs due to the decline in the number of subscribers. The decline in broadband costs is not much different from Xunlei's profits. After all, the decline in Xunlei's advertising revenue, subscription revenue and other declines can be offset by the increase in Xunlei's other Internet value-added service revenue.

Xunlei's small profit is actually not very significant in terms of quantity and actual significance. What kind of profit is this? Third, Xunlei's popularity in China will continue to decline.

As a downloading tool, Thunder no longer has its advantages; as a video playback tool, Thunder does not have much advantage; as a video website, Thunder is not mainstream; as a network storage tool, Thunder is even worse.

At the same time, due to the lack of attractive content, the number of subscribers will continue to decline. If it continues to rely on other Internet value-added services such as games, it may not be a long-term solution. Xunlei's main business is not this.

Of course, if the cooperation with Xiaomi can be successful in the future, Xunlei will have great hope for a positive development. But the question is whether Xiaomi is sincerely helping Xunlei or just using Xunlei as a tool for itself in some aspect.

So, even though it is a "double happiness", Xunlei's troubled days are far from over, and its hard days may still be long.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.