The 5-year-old iPad is at a crossroads. Where should it go?

On April 7, Apple has launched the classic tablet computer iPad for 5 years. It has also become a fashion symbol, but with declining sales, the iPad has reached a crossroads. Where will it go?

When late Apple founder Steve Jobs introduced the iPad in 2010, he called it a "truly fantastic and revolutionary" product, but no one could have guessed how quickly it would catch on. The iPhone, which was three years old at the time, had already been a huge success, but the iPad was the winning card in Apple's hand. Analysts predicted that iPad sales would be between 1.1 million and 7 million units in its first year. However, Apple sold a total of 14.8 million iPads that year.

It's hard to overstate the impact the iPad has had on the consumer electronics industry. Just as the iPhone reshaped the image of the mobile phone, the iPad redefined the tablet computer. Previously, bulky, ugly laptop- style tablets were often built for specialized work purposes, and Apple actually created a new product category, while competitors such as Samsung and Microsoft are still catching up. When Jobs introduced the iPad, it quickly became a household name, extending Apple's dominance further into the mobile field.

"It's a very small niche and then it quickly becomes a mainstream product, and that's Apple's strategy," said Jan Dawson, an analyst at Jackdaw Research.

The numbers are staggering. Apple has sold 250 million iPads, making it the company's best-selling product ever. In addition, 725,000 apps have been developed specifically for the iPad. But five years after its debut, the iPad is at a crossroads. Despite Apple's best efforts to entice consumers with smaller, thinner iPads, sales are plunging. Just like the original iPad, who would buy it? As smartphones get bigger and laptops get lighter, the iPad's purpose becomes increasingly narrow.

Apple CEO Tim Cook said the iPad is in a "slowdown" but believes the product still has long-term growth potential. Apple is reportedly working on a larger iPad Pro, mainly for business users. But critics question whether Apple can reverse the decline in iPad sales in the broader market. According to market research firm IDC, tablet sales will only grow by 2.1% this year, which is completely different from the market growth rate of 294% in 2010 and 2011.

"We are not seeing the same high growth rates we have seen in the past five years in the tablet market," said IDC analyst Jean Philippe Bouchard. "This year will be a year of continued slowdown in iPad sales."

In its last quarterly earnings report, Apple said iPad sales were down 18% to 21.4 million units. iPad sales have fallen every quarter since the holiday season peak in fiscal 2013. But there's no doubt that the iPad remains a force to be reckoned with. Last quarter's $9 billion in sales still exceeds McDonald's total fourth-quarter revenue. Given such strong sales, it's easy to forget why you buy an iPad in the first place.

From joke to myth

When Apple introduced the iPad in January 2010, there was certainly no shortage of cynicism. Some even mocked its name, which could easily be associated with the feminine hygiene product iTampon. Others even called it a large iPhone, and many more questioned its purpose. Donald Bell, editor of the technology website CNET, once said in his assessment: "The biggest problem with this device is that it can't convince people to buy it."

But consumers didn't care. The iPad attracted a lot of people after it was launched, just like the iPhone did. Apple claimed that they sold 300,000 iPads on the first day. The annual sales volume exceeded even the most optimistic estimates by more than double. In 60 days, Apple sold 2 million iPads.

It didn’t take long for the iPad to become a cultural icon. Famous designer Oscar de la Renta showed it off at a fashion show, President Barack Obama was even asked to autograph it, and Time magazine named it “Gadget of the Year.” Soon after the iPad 2 was released in early 2011, it appeared on an episode of Modern Family.

The iPad was so successful that it quickly became synonymous with tablet computers, and consumers wanted an iPad even if they already had other tablets.

The tablet market is getting crowded

When the iPad was first launched, it was a great boon for Apple. One year after its launch, the iPad had a 77% share of the tablet market. But this dominance could not last forever. By 2014, the iPad's market share had shrunk to 28%.

What happened? The tablet market is still growing, which is why Apple's revenue is much higher now than it was in its first year. But in terms of unit sales, the iPad has been dethroned. Apple remained the tablet leader until Amazon launched the Kindle Fire in November 2011. Amazon's core innovation was a significantly lower price tag, selling it for just $199 (the iPad starts at $499). If the iPad taught us what a tablet should be, then the Kindle Fire reset the psychological price point for tablets.

Then Google launched the equally cheap Nexus 7, priced at $199, which, in addition to packaging exquisite specifications, also had the latest version of the Android operating system.

Today, Android tablets are expanding rapidly, from Samsung's high-end Galaxy Tab S to Verizon-branded tablets. According to market research firm Gartner, there are currently 1,000 tablets on the market.

Two-thirds of tablets run Android. According to IDC, nearly 400 million Android tablets have been sold. But there is a clear difference between these cheap tablets and Apple's premium iPads, which still dominate. "Apple is still doing very well in the tablet market," Dawson said.

But that doesn't mean the iPad's future is secure. In October 2013, Apple tried to expand the potential market with a smaller, cheaper iPad Mini. At the same time, Apple was also working hard to slim down the original tablet and developed the iPad Air. In 2014, Apple launched the iPad Air 2, which added a fingerprint sensor and a more elegant design.

But these improvements have so far failed to bear fruit, and iPad sales are still declining. Dawson said: "The iPad's unique qualities are not as many as they used to be."

iPad has a promising future

So why is Cook so optimistic about the long-term prospects of the iPad?

First, Apple has reached an agreement with IBM to jointly develop iPad applications for specific industries. This agreement can promote large companies to adopt iPad as a formal workplace tool. Cook said in the January financial report: "I think we really want to change the way people work. I am excited about these applications that are about to appear and the rapid establishment of partnerships."

The iPad has become standard equipment in many offices. During coverage of the final round of the general election in November, CNN commentators were spotted using a Microsoft Surface tablet as a stand for their iPads. Last month, the British government announced that all MPs would be equipped with iPad Air 2s.

And Cook isn't the only one who sees potential opportunities for tablets in the workplace. Apple's arch-rival Samsung has also launched its own plan to market its tablets to corporate users and work with them to develop apps and maintain security.

Second, Apple is rumored to be working on a larger iPad Pro that would be better suited for use in the workplace. Microsoft is using a similar tactic, with its oversized Surface Pro 3 helping its fledgling tablet business generate a $1 billion new business.

Apple is also pushing more iPads into schools. In 2012, Apple introduced iBooks Textbooks and iTunes U, which give users access to free educational content. Last year, more than 750,000 iPads were sold to kindergarten through 12th graders in Texas alone.

Apple is not the only company to enter the school market. Google has already introduced its Chromebook laptop to schools, making it a cheap educational tool. In 2014, three years after the Chromebook was launched, it had already occupied one-third of the education market. According to data released by IDC, Windows is still in the leading position, accounting for 39% of the market share, while Apple's share of the education market is about 32%.

Third, core consumers may eventually return and upgrade to their new tablets. Maybe they are spending limited money on an iPhone 6 or iPhone 6 Plus now, but in the next round of upgrades, they will look to the iPad.

IDC analyst Bouchard said he believes the upgrade cycle for tablets is about three and a half years, which is longer than the upgrade cycle for new smartphones, which is about 18 months to two years. Apple also benefits from a large user base. Bouchard said: "When a large user base decides to upgrade, the demand is also huge."

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.