Tech keywords for 2016: layoffs, VR/AR, IoT

2015 has been a long and busy year, and my crystal ball is flashing with warnings that the battery is running low, so let's use the little signal we have left to see what to look forward to in the coming year.

There will be massive layoffs in 2016. Of course, everyone could have easily guessed that. Avago was famous for its aggressive approach to LSI and other M&A targets. I expect the new Broadcom will also be a leaner, cleaner machine.

Avago/Broadcom is just one of many mergers in 2015, but it will be a sacrifice to Wall Street in the pursuit of greater profits in the coming year. As the electronics industry declines from its golden age to single-digit growth, more mergers are expected to follow.

I don’t see the next big thing in my crystal ball. That’s a little scary.

I remember when I started covering this industry in the late 1980s, the 80386 CPU was just starting to rise out of Santa Clara, California. Since then, there has been one identifiable growth engine in the market - desktop PCs, laptops, smartphones, and tablets. In the coming year, each of these large markets is expected to continue to grow, but none of them will be able to generate greater growth.

Some may argue that virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) are the next big thing, with several platforms set to debut this spring, but I expect these hyped topics to fade from consumer use by the fall, mostly due to their high prices and lackluster performance, making them a difficult sell for Christmas gifts in 2016.

So, as all eyes turn increasingly to the Internet of Things (IoT), I expect next year to come with a new skeptical view of IoT. Popular smart identification will catch up with electronic intelligence to achieve IoT. But IoT will not be the next big thing, but just a combination of many new things combined with some of the original technologies we have always called "embedded" to become a marketing rhetoric that is easy to hype but difficult to make money.

IoT is just a combination of $2 processors and 50 cents of memory, with lots of power and cheap software and services. IoT slowly penetrates digital technology into many previously analog markets, but it will not bring a rich "gold mine" to the electronics industry, let alone become the next big thing after the PC, smartphone or tablet market.

Speaking of "gold mines", the analytical engines used by network giants to explore the "gold mines" of huge amounts of data will still seem synonymous with digital fracking. Therefore, the huge amount of data will open up the demand for privacy and security - this seems to be another simple prediction.

Crystal ball! Please give me some positive predictions before the power runs out!

So, consider this prediction: Engineers will make important advances in the 10nm node, 3D chip stacking, and system-in-package (SiP). These important capabilities will lead to a series of truly powerful chips, including Apple's next-generation A-series SoCs, Nvidia's Pascal graphics processors (GPUs), and Intel/Altera's accelerator chips for servers.

Despite the cost issues and challenges, engineers will continue to make more sense to move forward with Moore's Law. However, this prediction is also very simple.

Finally, despite the disruptive power of the Internet on the publishing industry—a historic shift that has been lingering in recent years for publications large and small—EE Times will continue to report on the electronics industry for engineers.

Compiled by: Susan Hong