China Automobile Dealers Association: Automobile consumption index in November 2018 was 85.4

On December 3, 2018, the China Automobile Dealers Association released the "Automobile Consumption Index" for November: the automobile consumption index for November 2018 was 85.4. It is expected that sales in December will increase compared to November, but compared with previous years, consumer demand for cars is still not strong and the market is still sluggish.

Automobile consumption index trend chart

Judging from the sub-indices that make up the automobile consumption index, the demand sub-index was 96.4 in November 2018, and consumer demand for cars continued to decline.

Automobile Consumption Index-Demand Sub-Index Trend Chart

The store entry index in November 2018 was 99.7, and consumers' willingness to enter stores to view cars has declined.

Automobile Consumption Index-Store Entry Index Trend Chart

The purchasing sub-index in November 2018 was 109.8, and consumers' actual purchasing intention increased.

Automobile Consumption Index-Purchase Sub-Index Trend Chart

The economy is in recession, the stock market has continued to decline, and the wealth of some consumers has shrunk, and their willingness to spend large amounts of money has decreased. Affected by the pressure of the manufacturer's annual task, dealers will continue to cut prices in December to promote sales, exchange price for volume, and stimulate consumers to buy cars. Affected by the National VI policy, some consumers are waiting to see the National VI models and wait for the National V price reduction. The weather in the north is cold, and consumers are less willing to go to the store to see cars. At the end of the year, funds in various industries began to recover faster, income increased, and consumers with just-needed needs will go to the store to buy cars in December.

Taking all the above factors into consideration, sales in December are expected to increase month-on-month from November. However, due to the high base caused by the withdrawal of the purchase tax policy last year, the year-on-year decline in sales in December may reach 20%, and market demand will remain sluggish.

Appendix: Automobile Consumption Index Survey Description

As an industry organization, the China Automobile Dealers Association has successfully compiled and released two major indexes in the new and used car fields of the automobile distribution industry. Automobile manufacturers, parts manufacturers, dealer groups, banks, securities, consulting companies and other automobile-related companies widely use the above indicators as a reference for their operations and have received unanimous praise.

After years of development, the Chinese auto market has transitioned from a seller's market to a buyer's market, from product-centric to consumer-centric, and from supply-oriented to consumption-oriented, and the market's determinants have changed. However, at present, whether at the macro level or within the auto industry, the statistical data and indexes used are mostly from the perspective of producers, and there is almost no authoritative index from the perspective of consumers to reflect the operation of the auto industry.

To this end, the China Automobile Dealers Association, based on its previous experience in index compilation, has begun to compile an "Automobile Consumption Index" to reflect the operating trends of the automobile market from a consumption perspective.

The automobile consumption index starts from the process of consumers' car purchase intention, online search, car model attention, to the final car delivery and purchase process, and selects representative leading indicators to synthesize a comprehensive index. Specific indicators include consumer purchase intention, car purchase demand, channel dynamics, and automobile consumption environment data. Data sources include online consumer data provided by Yiche and others, as well as offline data from consumers and dealers. Through model calculation, the automobile consumption index shows stable market leading nature, that is, the current data can predict the market sales trend in the next period.

The automobile consumption index is a comprehensive index greater than 0, with July 2016 as the base period. If the index value is greater than 100, it means that consumer demand is higher than the base period and the market sales volume in the next period will be high; if the index value is less than 100, it means that the market demand is lower than the base period and the market sales volume in the next period will be low.

The automobile consumption index has the characteristics of a large pattern, new perspective, full scope, full chain, authority and leading. It aims to reflect the operation status of the Chinese automobile market under the buyer's market, provide more sensitive and accurate market demand data, provide reference for the country, industry and enterprises to have a deeper understanding and interpretation of the market, and guide the healthy and benign development of the automobile industry.

The China Automobile Dealers Association has established the "China Automobile Industry Index Research Group" to be responsible for the compilation of the automobile industry index. It consists of a research group and a working group: the research group is jointly composed of the Industry Coordination Department of the China Automobile Dealers Association, the Automobile Marketing Research Branch (China Passenger Car Association), and the Imported Automobile Working Committee; the working group is composed of local dealer groups and dealer single store operation management leaders, who jointly participate in the construction and compilation of the China Automobile Industry Index and promote the application of the index in operation management.