China Automobile Dealers Association: Automobile consumption fell by 2% in 2020, and new energy vehicle production increased by 17% to 1.46 million

According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the automobile production in December this year was 2.8 million units, an increase of 7%, which is a large increase. Among them, the growth rate of sedans was 11%, which is also a very good high growth. . ; The added value of automobiles in December 2020 was 10%, which is at a recent high and better than last year's trend. In December, the total retail sales of automobile consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, with strong growth for four consecutive months. . At present, the automobile production this year is expected to be close to the same level, and new energy vehicles will grow rapidly year-on-year.

Sales of automobile products have improved significantly. In the face of the impact of the epidemic, the central and local governments have introduced a number of policy measures to stabilize and promote automobile consumption, and the effect is gradually showing. In December, the retail sales of automobile products of units above the designated size have continued to grow strongly year-on-year. According to the data from the China Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of passenger cars in December increased by 7% year-on-year, achieving stable positive growth.

1. The automobile consumption trend rebounded greatly in December 2020

In December, the total retail sales of automobile consumer goods increased by 6% year-on-year, which is already very good. In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4,056.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, and the growth rate fell by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles reached 3,569.5 billion yuan, an increase of 4.4%.

In 2020, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,198.1 billion yuan, down 3.9% from the previous year. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles reached 35,256.6 billion yuan, down 4.1%.

Auto consumption was relatively sluggish in 2018 and 2019, with entry-level consumption still insufficient and mid- to high-end consumption upgrading performing outstandingly. Auto consumption in 2020 was affected by the Spring Festival at the beginning of the year and then by the epidemic, but is now gradually recovering. After July, the contribution of automobiles to consumption was positive.

2. Automobile production stabilized in December 2020

In terms of products, in December, 417 out of 612 products increased year-on-year. Steel products were 120.34 million tons, up 12.8% year-on-year; cement was 213.33 million tons, up 6.3%; ten non-ferrous metals were 5.75 million tons, up 8.6%; ethylene was 2.08 million tons, up 11.3%; automobiles were 2.804 million, up 6.5%, of which new energy vehicles were 238,000, up 55.6%; power generation was 727.7 billion kWh, up 9.1%; crude oil processing was 60 million tons, up 2.1%.

In December this year, automobile production reached 2.8 million units, up 7%, a significant increase. Among them, the growth rate of sedans was 11%, which is also a very good high growth.

3. The added value of automobiles has stabilized at a high level in 2020

In December, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 7.3% year-on-year in real terms. In 2020, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 2.8% year-on-year.

The added value of automobiles in December 2020 was 10%. Although the base number was high, it was still at a recent high, better than last year's trend. The added value of the automobile industry increased by 4.9% in 2018 and 1.8% in 2019, which was lower than the average level of added value of the manufacturing industry. This year's growth rate has returned to the normal level of 6.6%, making a significant contribution to the stable growth of the manufacturing industry.

4. New energy vehicle production in December reached 240,000, an increase of 56%

By product, in December, the average daily automobile sales were 90,000 units, an increase of 6.5%. Considering the high base of 87,000 units in December 2019, this year's growth rate performance is relatively good.

In December, the average daily production of cars was 34,000 units, an increase of 11% year-on-year. In December last year, the average daily production of cars was 31,000 units. This year, due to the recovery of market demand, the production in December was relatively strong.

In the past two years, commercial vehicles have been strong, while passenger vehicles have been weak. In 2020, the consumption structure is further unfavorable to consumption. The production growth rate of sedans is low, weaker than the average growth rate of automobiles, and the production growth rate of SUVs is lower than the overall growth rate of automobiles, which has become a sluggish factor that suppresses consumption.

In 2018, 1.3 million new energy vehicles were produced, a 40% increase over 2017. In 2018, 1 million new energy passenger vehicles were produced, continuing to maintain a strong high growth trend. In 2019, 1.19 million new energy vehicles were produced, with a weak growth rate of -1%. From January to December 2020, 1.46 million new energy vehicles were produced, with a growth rate of 17%, a good recovery. In December, 238,000 new energy vehicles were produced, an increase of 56%.

5. Automotive investment showed negative growth in December 2020

From January to December 2020, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 51,890.7 billion yuan, an increase of 2.9% over the previous year. Among them, investment in the mining industry fell by 14.1%, with the decline widening by 4.9 percentage points;

Manufacturing investment fell by 2.2%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points; among them, automobile investment rebounded to -12%.

In December 2020, automobile investment rebounded significantly, and the problem of sluggish investment in the automobile industry caused by the cooling of new energy has gradually improved.

6. The squeeze effect of the car market consumption caused by the surge in housing prices continues to be strong

The hot property market from 2016 to 2019 had a great impact, and the gradual cooling in the later period promoted the auto market well. In 2020, the sales area of ​​commercial housing was 1760.86 million square meters, an increase of 2.6% over the previous year, and a decrease of 0.1% in the previous year. Among them, the sales area of ​​residential housing increased by 3.2%, the sales of residential housing increased by 10.8%, the sales of office buildings decreased by 5.3%, and the sales of commercial business premises decreased by 11.2%.

At present, the real estate market is booming in December, and sales in the eastern region have skyrocketed. This is also the last way to reap the benefits. The current income of residents cannot support continued high debt.

The rebound speed of the property market is relatively strong. The growth rate from June to December is surprisingly high.

The hot property market is mainly supported by residents' deposits and prepayments, and loans are also at a high level. This has a certain diversion effect on the car market's car purchase funds.

The wealth effect of the real estate market has a certain promoting effect on the demand for high-end cars.

7. The auto market needs continued policy support in 2021

In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4,056.6 billion yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous month. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles reached 3,569.5 billion yuan, up 4.4%.

In 2020, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,198.1 billion yuan, down 3.9% from the previous year. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles reached 35,256.6 billion yuan, down 4.1%. At present, the problem of sluggish consumption is still prominent, but automobile consumption has stabilized at 12%. In the future, automobile consumption should gradually pick up to support overall consumption growth.

This year's consumption of refined oil has dropped significantly, which is also due to sales losses caused by low oil prices, but this is also a good effect in promoting auto market consumption. After all, low oil prices also lower the threshold for use.

In the overall social retail, the retail sales of goods above the quota performed strongly, which was the first reversal in recent years, reflecting that automobile consumption has a good effect in promoting overall bulk consumption.