China Automobile Dealers Association: Analysis of China’s automobile exports in 2020

China's domestic auto market has been on a downward trend since 2017, with the negative growth rate increasing. However, since 2017, China's auto export market has performed relatively strongly, with 6% positive growth in both 2018 and 2019. From January to December 2020, auto exports fell by 13%. In December, exports grew by 15% under the impact of the overseas epidemic, and the pressure on the export market has gradually improved.

The core driving force of the export market growth is still the growth space of passenger cars, especially in the Middle East and Africa, where the export performance is relatively strong, while Europe, Mexico and other markets have been strong recently. The overall performance of new energy vehicle exports is strong. Although the export of new energy low-speed vehicles has declined significantly, the export of new energy vehicles to Europe has grown rapidly, and SAIC and other companies have performed well.

1. Characteristics of automobile export growth rate

After a sharp decline in the global economic downturn from 2013 to 2015, the export growth rate gradually stabilized and improved from 2016 to 2020, and the current monthly export volume remains at an average of 80,000 to 100,000 units. From January to December 2020, exports reached 1.06 million units, and exports in December also reached 120,000 units. This is also due to the impact of the epidemic. There is still huge room for the development of automobile exports in the future.

Exports in December increased by 15% year-on-year, a significant improvement from the 13% decline in the first 12 months. This suggests that there is great potential for export recovery in the face of the international epidemic.

2. Monthly trend of vehicle exports

From the monthly trend, exports in recent years still show seasonal characteristics, showing the characteristics of a roller coaster trend of peaking and falling in the summer, but it changed to a V-shaped trend in 2020. Exports from March to December 2019 were at a historically low level. The auto market exports started strong in 2020, but were sluggish in February and March. Exports were still strong in April, but the trend was abnormally sluggish in May and June. Under the epidemic, exports from July to December 2020 were relatively strong relative to domestic exports, forming a characteristic that foreign countries recovered slower than domestic ones.

3. Structural characteristics of automobile exports

The export car market in 2017-2019 has been growing relatively over the same period. From January to December 2020, the export of complete vehicles (including chassis) was 1.06 million units, with a growth rate of -13%, which is considered a good performance. The export of low-priced unlisted motor vehicles has performed well this year. The export of traditional buses has been very poor this year, with low and negative growth in both traditional and new energy bus exports, which also shows that our exports are still encountering bottlenecks.

From January to December, customs exported 1.06 million passenger cars, a year-on-year decrease of 13%. Among them, 360,000 units were exported in the fourth quarter, a year-on-year increase of 15%.

4. Structural characteristics of new energy vehicle exports

The export volume of new energy vehicles from 2017 to 2019 was large, but passenger cars were basically mainly micro low-speed electric vehicles, and the actual number was not large.

New energy vehicles performed well in 2020, and plug-in hybrid models should also be re-sold products of joint ventures.

The export volume of new energy buses has improved, with an average monthly export of 30-60 units in the second half of 2017. The monthly average was also 40 units in the first quarter of 2020. The export of new energy buses increased slightly in the second quarter. The growth of new energy in the third quarter was large, and the growth in the fourth quarter was average.

2. Overseas Automobile Market Structure

1. Regional trend analysis

Exports from 2017 to 2020 are gradually recovering, mainly due to contributions from Africa and Europe. Europe's market share has increased significantly recently. Exports to North America have continued to increase significantly in the past two years, but have recently declined. Africa and South America have slightly recovered.

2. Monthly trend of vehicle exports

However, this year, the main exports of complete vehicles are mainly to markets such as Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Egypt, and the United States. The Russian, Swedish, and Australian markets have performed relatively strongly, and even the Belgian market has become a core market for growth this time.

The European markets saw relatively large increases in December, with Belgium, Russia, Norway and other countries all being very strong.

Overall, the epidemic has had a certain impact on China's auto exports. However, the suspension of overseas production has also led to a certain increase in China's exports to developed countries.

The overseas bases for automobile exports have not been very effective. In 2020, automobile exports were mainly realized in Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Egypt, Chile and other countries. In the early stage, exports were promoted by Iran, Mexico and Bangladesh, which suffered great losses under the epidemic. Export losses also occurred in Algeria, North Korea and other countries. The main increase came from relatively developed countries.

4. Analysis of export characteristics of new energy vehicles

The main growth in China's new energy vehicle exports is to the European and North American markets, especially the European market, with an increase of 50,000 units. The markets in Western Europe, Northern Europe, Central Europe and other regions are all doing well.

3. Export trends of passenger cars by category

1. Export of passenger cars by displacement

The displacement of passenger cars exported is mainly in the range of 1.5-2 liters, which is also the comprehensive advantage of China's independent passenger cars. However, the product grade of electric vehicles is relatively low, and the export demand is unstable. In 2017, the proportion of passenger cars reached 8%, in 2019 it reached 26%, and in 2020 it was 23%. The export of low-priced micro electric vehicles was very strong. The export of low-priced micro electric vehicles in December improved significantly.

2. Characteristics of passenger car export structure

The main growth markets for China's passenger car exports during the epidemic in December were developed countries in Europe and the United States. Exports to the United States performed relatively well. The Swedish and German markets were also relatively strong.

4. Export trends of trucks by category

1. Truck export

The proportion of truck exports in the automobile export market has continued to shrink, falling from 21% in 2017 to 18% in 2019. It rebounded to 18.5% in 2020. The main force in the truck market is trucks below 5 tons. There is also a certain demand for heavy trucks above 20 tons, but there has not been much growth recently. In the future, the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative overseas will promote the export of Chinese trucks.

2. Changing characteristics of the truck export market

The overall performance of the truck export market has been average recently. The decline in truck exports in 2016 was still serious, and the recovery performance from 2017 to 2019 was not very strong. The performance in 2020 was average. Among them, the markets that declined were Iran and Algeria, while the markets in Vietnam, Chile and the Philippines were relatively good. Among them, the Vietnamese market is the core market for China's truck exports, and the Algerian market has shrunk rapidly this year, reflecting that the overseas market for truck exports is still not stable enough.

5. Export trends of passenger cars by category

1. Passenger car export performance

The export of passenger cars is mainly light passenger cars. Only this year, the large passenger car market has shrunk relatively, while the light passenger car market has gradually strengthened. The total volume of the passenger car market is in a state of continuous shrinkage relative to the export of the automobile market. The light passenger car market in 2020 has declined significantly.

2. Performance of passenger car exporting countries

The main markets for bus exports are Egypt, Saudi Arabia and other markets. These markets have small capacity, large fluctuations and high trade risks. In the past few years, Vietnam's demand has shrunk sharply, and the export performance of Angola and North Korea has also fluctuated. This is also a very unique and complex trade model. Bus exports to developed countries are relatively small, which does not reflect the real advantages of buses.