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In November, the market was affected by both chips and the epidemic Although the supply side of the auto market continued to improve in November, there is still a large gap relative to market demand, and the terminal market is still in a state of structural shortage. At the same time, the epidemic situation has risen in many places, and the impact on the consumer side is greater than we expected. In November, the narrow passenger car retail sales of the China Passenger Car Association reached 1.816 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7% and a month-on-month increase of 6.0% from October. The new energy market continues to remain hot, mainly driven by independent and new power brands. In November, retail sales reached 378,000 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 122.3%, and the market penetration rate reached 20.8%. The auto market faces more uncertainties in December The supply side continued to improve at the end of the year, and the dealers also actively prepared inventory to cope with the upcoming peak sales season before the New Year. However, a new round of local epidemics emerged in early December, and many places issued notices advocating local New Year celebrations. The obstruction of population mobility may further affect the sales during the Spring Festival peak season. In the new energy market, subsidies are clearly set to decline by 30% by the beginning of next year, so it is expected that there will be no significant advance sales compared with previous years. Most of the existing consumption promotion policies will expire before the end of the year, and the current support will continue next year. With multiple factors intertwined, the market is not expected to have a significant tail effect in December. 1. Manufacturer sales trends The terminal price monitoring results show that the overall market discount rate of passenger cars in mid-December was about 11.0%, which remained stable compared with the end of the previous month and remained at a high level. Among them, luxury and joint venture brands have eased their supply problems and market prices have begun to fall. According to the December retail target survey, more than 80% of manufacturers in the overall market still have a double-digit year-on-year negative growth. It is preliminarily estimated that the narrow passenger car retail market this month is around 2.05 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of about 10.4%. 2. Weekly trend estimation The average daily sales of major manufacturers in the first, second and third weeks were -17%, -7% and -8% year-on-year respectively, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 10%, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic in various places, and the improvement on the supply side was relatively limited. The market gradually recovered in the fourth week, and the year-on-year growth is expected to be around -8%. The momentum of the fifth anniversary rush will be less than in previous years, and the average daily sales volume is expected to be -14% year-on-year. It is estimated that retail sales in December will reach 2.05 million vehicles. 3. Multiple factors bring uncertainty From January to November this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 13.7% year-on-year, of which the automobile category increased by 9.7% year-on-year, and the supply shortage problem was prominent. From January to November, the national service industry production index increased by 14.0% year-on-year, and the average growth rate over the past two years was 6.0%. The real economy has recovered steadily, and the economy has bottomed out and stabilized at the end of the year. However, with the approaching Winter Olympics and statutory holidays, the epidemic prevention and control has been tightened, and the population mobility has been blocked, which is not conducive to the release of peak season demand. The auto market faces great uncertainty at the end of the year. Before the expiration of the promotion fee policies in various regions at the end of the year, the market will have a small boost, and the policies next year will continue to support the current strength, such as the recent relaxation of the application conditions for new energy indicators in Shenzhen and the increase of energy-saving vehicle indicators in Guangzhou. Therefore, it is expected that there will be no more obvious early sales at the end of this year compared with previous years. The supply of chips is still improving, and the production and wholesale sales have recovered significantly, and the constraints of supply on the auto market have gradually eased. According to the latest survey results of the China Automobile Dealers Association, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of auto dealers in November was 1.35, an increase of 4.7% month-on-month. Dealers actively prepared for the Spring Festival sales peak season, and the inventory level continued to rise. The new energy vehicle market continues to be hot. Faced with a 30% decline in new energy subsidies at the beginning of next year, most car companies choose to offer price guarantees and promotions at the end of the year. It is expected that the new energy market will set a new high in December. In summary, the retail sales volume of passenger cars in a narrow sense is expected to reach 2.05 million units in December, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%. The retail sales volume for the whole year of 2021 is expected to reach 20.09 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. |
