China Passenger Car Association: China's MPV production in March 2022 was 76,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 28.5%

In March 2022 , due to the frequent outbreaks of the epidemic, rising raw material prices, insufficient chip supply, geopolitical instability, etc., the supply chain and production in some regions, such as Jilin and Shanghai, were greatly affected. In terms of the market, we are in a situation where " urgent need to buy a car to protect family members from epidemic prevention " and " lower income expectations and weak demand " coexist, which brings huge pressure to the automotive industry.

In March , MPV production was 76,000 units, down 28.5% year-on-year , and wholesale was 71,000 units, down 23.7% year-on-year , with production and sales basically balanced. From January to March , production was 202,000 units , down 15.4% year-on-year, wholesale was 204,000 units, down 7.8% year-on-year, and sales were down 17,000 units year-on-year; MPV penetration in the narrow passenger car market was only 3.7% , down 0.7 percentage points from the same period last year .

1. The concentration of TOP10 decreased by 2 percentage points

In the first quarter of this year, there were 32 registered MPV companies, which wholesaled 204,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8% . The TOP10 companies sold a total of 167,000 vehicles , a year- on-year decrease of 10.1% . The market concentration of the TOP10 was 81.7% , a decrease of 2 percentage points year-on-year.

Among the top 10 enterprises, there are 5 joint venture brands and 5 independent brands ; in the market with a total market share of 81.7% , joint venture brands account for 40.9% and independent brands account for 40.8% , which are evenly matched in terms of number of enterprises and proportion. GAC Toyota is a newcomer with remarkable achievements; 5 of the top 10 enterprises have achieved positive growth , namely Changan Automobile ( +104.9% ), GAC Honda ( +30.9% ), Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor ( +15.1% ), GAC Passenger Car ( +8.5% ), and SAIC Maxus ( +1.0% ). Among them, Changan's high growth is based on last year's low base. Ounuo's avant-garde interior design technology and Oushang's extended launch have helped Changan find a window for product sales to increase.

From the perspective of group attributes, the top three groups accounted for 40.7% of the entire MPV market in the first quarter, namely SAIC Group , 25.3% of GAC Group , and 15.0% of Dongfeng Group . They have absolute voice in the MPV market.

2. The concentration of TOP15 models exceeds 80%, and the replacement rate of new cars reaches 12%.

There are 42 MPV products on sale in the domestic MPV market , of which the sales volume of the TOP15 products is 164,000 units, down 8.0% year-on-year , and the market concentration is 80.1% . The " American, German, Japanese, Korean and Chinese " car series gathered in the TOP15 list, among which American cars (one) accounted for 17.1% ; German cars (two) 4.2% ; Japanese cars (three) 18.3% ; Korean cars (one) 2.0% ; Chinese cars (eight) 38.5% . High-end cars accounted for nearly half of the sales volume of the TOP15 , and small and medium-end MPVs shrank significantly, highlighting the market trend of the " inverted pyramid " in the MPV market .

Toyota Sienna and Hyundai Kustu entered the TOP15 list as soon as they were launched, becoming the leaders in the MPV market. The two models sold a total of 20,000 units, accounting for 12.2% . In the first quarter of this year , the replacement rate of new MPVs reached 12% .

In addition to the two new cars, Senna and Kustu, there are 7 other TOP15 models that achieved positive growth . In order of growth rate from largest to smallest, they are Ounuo ( +148.3% ), Weiran ( +124.5% ), Trumpchi M6 ( +60.0% ), Odyssey ( +30.9% ), Vito ( +30.3% ), Lingzhi ( +15.1% ), and Maxus G50 ( +2.5% ).

Although Buick GL8's sales growth was negative in the first quarter, it still has nearly 1/5 of the MPV market share; Ouno is a highly competitive competitor to Hongguang, with a price range of 46,900-49,900 yuan; the 2022 new Weiran is built on the MQB Evo digital architecture and was officially launched recently. It has made technological improvements and is priced between 286,800 yuan and 399,800 yuan, which has good room for growth.

3. Plug-in hybrid MPVs have advantages, while conventional hybrid MPVs perform well

In the first quarter of 2022 , the electrification trend of MPV products was not obvious. Although there were 13 electric vehicles on sale, the sales volume was not large. From January to March , the total sales volume was 3,552 units, a decrease of 52.1% . During the same period, there were 3 plug-in hybrid models available for sale , with sales of 2,783 units, a year-on-year increase of 65.8% . Electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids have also encountered the general environment of declining subsidies for new energy vehicles and rising sales costs, but the market demand situation is very different. In my opinion, since MPVs carry people and cargo at the same time, and some need to travel long distances, plug-in hybrid vehicles are simpler and easier to operate than electric vehicles, with stronger operability and no mileage anxiety, highlighting their advantages. This is one of the reasons for the high growth of plug-in hybrids; in addition, there are three models on the market, including BYD Song MAX DM , SAIC Maxus G50 and Geely Jiaji. Among them, BYD Song MAX DM sold 1,320 units in March, which was highly recognized by consumers. Powerful products lay the foundation for market growth.

There are only three models in the HEV market, namely GAC Toyota Sai, GAC Honda Odyssey and Dongfeng Honda Elysion. From January to March , the cumulative sales of HEVs reached 37,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 88.5% . The penetration rate in the MPV market reached 18.3% , a year-on-year increase of 9 percentage points, which performed beyond expectations. HEVs are a more suitable transitional product at this stage.