China Automobile Dealers Association: Weekly analysis of the auto market from May 1 to May 8, 2022

In the first week of May this year , the overall narrow passenger car market retail sales reached an average of 32,000 units per day, a year-on-year decrease of 21% , and the performance was still relatively weak. Compared with the average value of the first week of April this year, it increased by 29% . As some regions resumed normal operations, the passenger car market retail sales have improved to a certain extent.

This year, we are facing a complex marketing environment. Compared with the multiple outbreaks in 28 provinces and cities in April , the situation in May will be significantly improved. The delayed consumer demand in March and April should be released to a certain extent, which is conducive to the gradual recovery of retail in May . For the market in May , the orders and deliveries in the first week of the " May Day " holiday have improved significantly compared with April, but there is a large year-on-year decline compared with last year's " May Day " . The market recovery pressure is still very high, and the epidemic in Beijing, Zhengzhou and other places has intensified. Now the strict epidemic prevention policy is expected to have a large negative growth in May compared with last year.

In the current environment, self-driving has become the first choice for travel. Affected by high oil prices, more people will choose to buy new energy vehicles. The supply of new energy vehicles in May will improve significantly compared with the previous month, and it is expected that the retail sales of new energy vehicles in May will show a high growth compared with April .

3. Weekly wholesale trends of passenger car market in May

In the first week of May this year , the overall narrow passenger car market wholesale reached an average of 28,000 vehicles per day , a year-on-year decrease of 17% . The performance is still relatively weak. Compared with the average of the first week of April this year, it increased by 14% . The production and sales of manufacturers have a certain recovery trend.

At present, the peak of the domestic epidemic has passed, and the resumption of work and production is gradual, and supporting policies are being implemented at an accelerated pace. Changchun's automobile manufacturing capacity quickly recovered in May , and some companies in Shanghai began to resume work and production in mid-to-late April. The supply is facing a gradual improvement in May , and the normal supply demand of the industrial chain will be met as soon as possible. At present, companies in the automotive industry chain are gradually changing from " firefighting " emergency response to normalized high-resilience supply chain management. Production and sales are gradually returning to normal.

4. Auto exports in April were 170,000 units, with a growth rate of only 10%. Imported vehicles were strong, but parts were poor.

The General Administration of Customs released the customs import and export data for April. From the perspective of import and export performance in April, the monthly automobile export was only 170,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 10 % . Compared with the year-on-year growth of 70% in January- February and 34% in March, the automobile export in April only increased by 10% , and the export growth rate dropped sharply. From the perspective of import performance, the amount of automobile imports this year has increased relatively significantly, and the import amount in April increased by 18% year-on-year, which was relatively strong. This year, the import of auto parts fell by 17% in April . The import of auto parts was greatly affected by the overseas epidemic, which had an adverse impact on China's automobile production and sales.

In April, China exported 171,000 complete vehicles and chassis , a year-on-year increase of 10% . The export value of automobiles reached US$ 2.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9% , which is relatively low. From January to April this year, the cumulative export volume reached 840,000 vehicles, and the export value reached 14.5 billion yuan . The scale of export value reaching US$ 14.5 billion is relatively strong. The annual cumulative export volume growth reached 45% , and the export value growth rate reached 64% . The sales growth rate in April was about 30 percentage points lower than the annual cumulative growth rate , which is still relatively large, especially the decline in export value in April was relatively large compared with the annual, down 50 percentage points.

5. Non-manufacturing car users face greater pressure

According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the manufacturing PMI in April was 47.4% , down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 41.9% , down 6.5 percentage points from the previous month. Such a downward trend in indicators has a huge impact on the auto market.

According to the characteristics of the service industry, non-manufacturing employment has a huge demand for automobiles. At present, the decline in the prosperity level of the service industry has increased. Severely impacted by the epidemic, the business activity index of the service industry was 6.7 percentage points lower than last month, falling to 40.0% , and it has fallen significantly for two consecutive months. The service industry has weakened overall. From the perspective of industry conditions, 19 of the 21 industries surveyed are in the contraction range, among which the business activity index of contact-intensive industries such as air transportation, accommodation, catering, ecological protection and public facilities management is still in a low contraction range; wholesale, postal, financial and other industries have fallen to the contraction range, and the total business volume has turned from rising to falling. Due to the interference of the epidemic for several consecutive years, some economies are under tremendous pressure to survive, which has put tremendous pressure on the passenger car and light commercial vehicle markets.

6. Cars going to the countryside should be : Cars going to the county The urbanization construction with county towns as the core has great potential

Recently, the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the Opinions on Promoting Urbanization Construction with County Towns as Important Carriers. The focus of China's urbanization construction in the future has determined the new urbanization path with county urbanization as the core, which is the middle point between cities and rural areas.

At present, a large number of rural populations are moving to county towns, and the consumer market also has great development potential in county towns. Through natural trend development, we can achieve the economic take-off of urban and county towns in my country, improve the living and employment environment of county towns, guide the diversion of population from large cities, and at the same time resettle the rural population nearby. In recent years, the real estate in county towns has exploded and has been well built. Most young and middle-aged people in rural areas buy houses and settle down in county towns, especially those who are getting married. Therefore, the focus of the auto market is the county town market.

There is a huge space for new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles to enter county towns. Through the development of county towns with conditions, a number of new development points of urbanization and urbanization will be formed, potential county economies will be developed, and the cornerstone of automobile consumption will be strengthened. County towns will become a new growth point for my country's automobile development.