Will Douban Movies, which is undergoing transformation, be swallowed up by BAT after being cannibalized?

You are criticizing Douban, and you are saying how much money you have taken. This is probably the usual tone of some Douban users. The reason is that every now and then, there are old Douban users who come out to diagnose Douban, and they criticize more than they praise. As a half-senior movie fan, I registered Douban in 2008, and I have spared no effort to practice this fine tradition. For the time being, let's use "love deeply, hate deeply" to describe my emotional stance.

The above is a supplement to the article "Abei may have miscalculated the future of Douban Movies". Next, I want to tear off the noble mask of Douban users and say bluntly: Douban Movies is really old.

In the eyes of Douban users, movie fans can be roughly divided into two categories: Douban fans and others. As for the potential crisis of Douban Movies, the old users must feel it more deeply. At the beginning of Douban Movies' second decade, it can be felt that those who often talk about it are rarely real Douban users.

This is a sign of brand aging. Douban Movies, which is trying hard to transform, is also being cannibalized by latecomers. Latecomers are also learners, and they are cannibalizing Douban Movies from three levels: users, channels, and scenarios:

1. Movie We-Media

Movie self-media is plagued by the closed nature of Douban Movies.

The closed nature of Douban Movies is manifested in two aspects. First, the recommendation mechanism within the site is not accurate enough and does not do a good enough job of connecting content and users. Second, the output capacity of high-quality content is weak and the value of content producers cannot be maximized.

Take "Mr. Six" for example. A few days ago, a "most popular film review" titled "Seven Shocking Details Before Mr. Six's Death" was published on Douban Movie's homepage. The gist of it is that Mr. Six's death was due to lifestyle habits that he didn't care about, such as not following doctor's advice, excessive smoking and drinking, etc. Some Douban users commented that what they said made a lot of sense and could not be refuted; others said they would forward it to their mothers on WeChat.

This example illustrates the closed nature of Douban. There are signs of watered-down film reviews, and few of the film reviews that go viral on WeChat Moments come from Douban. The fact is that the group that once continuously outputted stable content on the Douban community is now moving to social platforms and becoming a film self-media.

Compared with Douban Movies, the content of movie self-media is more personalized and the output channels are more diverse. Even being sued by the film company can be regarded as an endorsement. Through content, they have successfully achieved the binding of users and channels. The most frequently cited element of Douban Movies may only be "Douban rating".

2. Vertical Social Platforms

The vertical social platform has hit Douban Movie users' content monetization problem.

From the perspective of content producers, Douban Movies' monetization path is too long. On the one hand, the content output capability is weak, and on the other hand, the users are not vertical enough. Douban has always played the role of a service provider, providing users with product services in different scenarios, but the user profile focuses more on records, making it difficult to quantify the community influence of content producers, let alone monetization.

The fate of joke writers illustrates this problem well. From Douban masters to Weibo influencers, and then to self-media with valuations exceeding 100 million yuan, content producers tend to prefer products with easy-to-quantify user value and shorter monetization paths.

Of course, movie self-media is not as good as joke tellers. Platforms such as Duyao and Weibo Movies also have this consideration when entering the vertical social networking market. Moreover, Duyao and Weibo Movies both emphasize scoring and commenting, which has formed a head-on confrontation with Douban Movies. However, it is not easy to capture these movie self-media with a number of fans. In addition to shortening the monetization path, the latter also values ​​the platform's control over the film and television industry chain, that is, industry resources.

The "Douban + Weibo" model of "Duyao" has attracted a number of high-quality movie self-media to enter and certify, although the "occupancy" is obvious. The Weibo Movie app, which was launched 9 days later than "Duyao", is a natural extension of Weibo's self-media business. Its target is not only Douban Movies, but also new entrants such as "Duyao". There is already some tension in this field.

Douban Movies is facing a dangerous situation of being cut off from the source of its income. As a content producer, the film self-media has a simple motive for choosing and discarding certain content. The commercial imagination in the field of "movie + social networking" is turning this migration into a gold rush.

3. Online Ticketing Platform

Online ticketing platforms are eroding Douban Movies' decision-making power in terms of scenes.

Douban Movies' decision-making power has always been reflected in its relatively objective ratings and high-quality film reviews, and users' movie-watching decisions are more rational. However, as people's income levels continue to rise, cultural consumption needs have been activated on a large scale, and movie consumption as a lifestyle has also shown some irrational factors.

I mentioned in the previous article that the ticket purchase pages of Maoyan and Weipiaoer are becoming more and more like Douban, and the number of user ratings and comments for a single film is already an order of magnitude higher than Douban. This is precisely the result of taking advantage of irrational factors, and the lively atmosphere created by beautiful numbers is extremely misleading, although there are few good reviews mixed with KOLs and water army reviews.

Moreover, the online ticketing platforms that continue to expand their market share have played an indispensable role in the continuous record-breaking box office sales of domestic movies. As a convenient channel for users to purchase tickets, the online ticketing platforms are becoming more and more important. In addition to social platforms, online ticketing platforms also have the ability to provide closed-loop services, which will weaken Douban Movies' decision-making power.

So, Douban Movies is really old.

What is even more frightening for Douban Movies is that the social platform and online ticketing platform have already gone into the pockets of BAT. The latter may have a dominant control over the entire film industry. The rumor that Douban was acquired by Baidu was also denied by Abei. It is conceivable that after the cannibalization, the most likely outcome for Douban Movies is that it will be swallowed up by BAT.

The author is Xiaozhu, who focuses on film and television streaming media. Her WeChat public account is: xiaozhu-shuo.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.