Former Sony executive: Still skeptical about the prospects of virtual reality? It's time to put your concerns aside

Ian Hetherington, a former Sony executive, recently wrote in the technology blog TechCrunch that although the prospects for virtual reality are still questionable, the past development trajectory of emerging technologies shows that this technology will inevitably become widely popular.

The following is the full text of the article:

I was the general manager of Sony Computer Entertainment Europe when the first PlayStation was released, and it shocked the gaming industry. At the time, gamers were unfamiliar with 3D environments, and most of the industry was initially reluctant to use the new technology. But over time, 3D games became the standard in the video game industry, and 2D games became obsolete. Consumers bought PlayStations at a record pace, with sales of 100 million units, far exceeding those of Nintendo and Sega.

As virtual reality becomes an important technology in gaming and other industries, and Google and Facebook are also actively promoting this innovation, I can't help but compare 3D game consoles with the emerging VR technology. Although some people are still skeptical about virtual reality and worry that it will not be widely popular, it will definitely become a widely popular technology like 3D gaming, and will promote the popularity of other technologies.

Just as 3D gaming drove huge sales for the PlayStation and later the Xbox and other 3D game consoles, VR will play a major role in getting consumers to upgrade their mobile devices and operating systems. Specifically, VR capabilities could entice consumers to upgrade their smartphones, just as 3D gaming entices consumers to upgrade their game consoles.

As we all know, the upgrade cycle of Google's mobile devices has reached a plateau. In May 2016, only 35.6% of Android devices used Android 5.1 and 5.1 Lollipop, which were released in 2014. In addition, only 7.5% of Android devices used the latest version of Android 6.0 Marshmallow.

Perhaps it is precisely because of these disappointing indicators that Google has launched the next generation of mobile and tablet systems, Android N. VR is expected to increase the adoption of Android N, and Google will fully tap the potential of this market with the Daydream platform recently announced at the I/O developer conference. VR will even increase the adoption of 4K smartphones, which I think is the future trend of mobile technology.

In addition to boosting Android's upgrade rate, VR will also be an important factor in attracting users to choose Android and abandon iPhone. Although there are rumors that Apple is investing in a VR View-Master headset that may be compatible with the iPhone, it is not certain at this time, and consumers are unlikely to wait for this technology.

Still, Google and other companies shouldn’t assume that consumers will upgrade their smartphones immediately because of VR. Many consumers still view VR as a cutting-edge technology that’s too far away for them. In the grand scheme of things, new technologies are like clothes on a fashion show—exciting but far from everyday life. 3D gaming is a perfect example of this pattern: any new technology is initially seen by the general public as a fringe technology that only becomes popular among hardcore tech enthusiasts before becoming more widely available.

VR is now in the same observation phase that I saw 3D gaming go through when I was at Sony. Concrete consumer use cases are an important step in making this technology more accessible and integrated into everyday life, so that the general public can get used to the fully immersive VR experience.

Another key factor in the technology integration cycle is innovative organizations. Currently, technology giants such as Google and Facebook are betting big on VR, and much of the news related to this emerging technology revolves around these two giants. As VR matures, other creators will also develop their own products and increase their use of VR technology.

This pattern has been confirmed in many technology cycles: if you make VR an attractive VR system for developers, the whole industry will automatically flourish. After the launch of PlayStation, Sony discovered that although the company can develop exclusive hardware and games in-house, independent video game developers are also very important, and healthy competition between the two is also conducive to innovation.

Facebook and Google's vision for VR, as well as the most notable applications of VR, are heavily focused on the consumer and gaming sectors. However, enterprise VR is also an important vertical sector, and its importance will continue to grow, rather than remain unnoticed. Enterprise VR and AR have become a booming sector, with innovators such as Meta claiming to have 1,000 enterprise users.

Outside of the gaming industry, VR and AR will also help individuals and organizations quickly capture value through this technology. Venture capitalists do not view VR and AR as a separate field, but rather as an important way to solve other problems. Jason Ball, managing director of Qualcomm Capital, said: "VR and AR are a new user experience and user interface for all application modes, but this will take time." The focus of the financing environment is to use VR and AR technology to solve problems faced in other fields. In my opinion, this means that enterprise and industrial use models will become the direction of capital influx.

Similar to the development path of 3D technology, virtual reality will also provide sufficient development space for third-party organizations to help them find their own niche in the consumer and enterprise markets. Driven by innovation, companies of all sizes will use this technology to find their own fields and products, thereby expanding the scope of application.

Virtual reality has great potential beyond the consumer services sector and will be deployed in all walks of life. Although it is still some way off for most consumers and organizations, the history of the technology industry tells us that the popularization of virtual reality is not far away from us.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.