What will the automotive industry look like in 2020?

If you often follow the news about automotive technology, you will notice that 2020 is a very special year for the automotive industry. Many technologies or goals that seemed unlikely or even unrealistic at the beginning will achieve breakthroughs or become mature in 2020. Whether it is electric vehicles, driverless cars or other technologies, we may achieve revolutionary changes in 2020.

Autonomous driving technology will become popular in 2020

Unmanned driving technology has evolved from the initial autonomous driving technology, starting from the most basic navigation function to road condition interpretation, traffic flow interpretation, turning control, refueling control, braking control and other capabilities, from driving on a single main road to driving on winding mountain roads, and then to driving in more complex traffic environments. The achievements of one competition after another also represent the continuous maturity of autonomous driving technology.

Japanese automaker Nissan has said it hopes to put its driverless cars on the road in 2020. Nissan's autonomous driving function will monitor the entire vehicle body through cameras installed on the roof and front. This AVM system uses cameras on four sides of the vehicle body to composite the images together, making it look like a bird's-eye view of the car from above, thus providing a 360-degree virtual view. At the same time, we can also see from the picture that Nissan's driverless car is equipped with a radar on the front bumper and a laser scanning sensor near the wheels.

As a pioneer in the development of driverless technology, Google is also expected to cooperate with Nissan to officially launch a driverless car that can be driven on the road in 2020.

100% safe cars will appear in 2020

Volvo, a Swedish car manufacturer known for its safety, also said it will develop a "completely safe" car by 2020.

Previously, Volvo North America's chief marketing officer Lex Kerssemakers said in an interview that Volvo will develop a sedan or SUV model with zero deaths or serious injuries. However, it is easy for Volvo to express its determination, but it is still very challenging to implement it. First of all, Volvo needs to make its models as strong and safe as possible, so that the vehicles are as safe as possible in car accidents. This step includes using more airbags, improving the energy absorption performance of the vehicle's crumple zone, etc.

Secondly, Volvo also needs to be supplemented with more advanced technologies to help avoid collisions, including collision detection, adaptive cruise control, automatic lane keeping, automatic reading of road signs, pedestrian detection and large animal detection, etc. These technologies are not unique to Volvo, and Volvo's competitors also provide such technologies in their vehicles.

Electric vehicles will have a range of 1,200 kilometers by 2020

As the number one electric car manufacturer, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said in an interview that if the Model S is currently driving at a low speed, it can reach about 800 kilometers. If it develops to 2020, Elon Musk predicts that the continuous driving distance of the Model S will exceed 1,200 kilometers. Elon believes that the progress of battery technology is increasing by 5% to 10% every year. Therefore, by 2020, in addition to the progress of battery technology, combined with the construction of various super charging piles, ordinary electric car users will no longer have range anxiety problems.

Electric vehicles will cost as much as fuel-powered cars by 2020

If the current price of electric vehicles puts some consumers off, they may not have to wait long for prices to drop. Bloomberg New Energy Finance said in a research report released recently that the cost of electric vehicles will fall as the price of batteries drops. Even in the face of low oil prices, electric vehicles will be able to compete with gasoline or diesel vehicles in terms of price in the 2020s. The report also predicts that electric vehicle sales will reach 41 million in 2040, accounting for 35% of light vehicle sales.

Even before 2025, the price of electric vehicles will fall, but the total cost will still be higher than that of fuel vehicles. In terms of environmental impact, if electric vehicles can account for 1/4 of the total car ownership in 2040, the world will consume 13 million barrels of crude oil per day, but electricity consumption will increase by 1900TWh - equivalent to 8% of global electricity demand last year.

“In the coming years, the price advantage of conventional vehicles will continue to exist, so we expect electric vehicles to account for no more than 5% of the light vehicle market,” said Salim Morsy, senior analyst and author of the report. “However, this cost comparison will change radically in the 2020s.”

Hydrogen fuel vehicles will become increasingly popular in 2020

By 2020, not only electric vehicles will begin to develop rapidly, but also hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will enter a period of rapid growth. In addition to the Toyota Mirai, which has already begun production, Lexus, Hyundai/Kia will also begin to launch fuel cell vehicles in 2020.

Kia and Hyundai are promoting the research and development of hydrogen fuel cell technology. Hyundai has launched the ix35 hydrogen fuel cell vehicle on the market, and sister brand Kia has set an annual sales target of 1,000 units (in 2020) for its first mass-produced hydrogen fuel cell vehicle. Kia said that the next generation of hydrogen fuel cells will be close in size to a 2.0-liter engine. Although the weight and volume are only 85% of the hydrogen fuel cell, the performance will be improved by 10%, the cruising range will exceed 800 kilometers, and the maximum speed will reach 169km/h.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.