Trump's future in the auto industry is full of questions

In November, under Trump's "coercion and inducement", Ford Motor Company gave up moving its factory to Mexico. At the beginning of December, the day of the US presidential handover is not far away. The Obama administration is still working diligently. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced that it will continue to strictly enforce the 2025 vehicle carbon dioxide emission standards. However, after Trump takes office, the EPA will become Trump's EPA. What kind of EPA will it be? Will Elaine Chao's nomination as Secretary of Transportation help promote the development of autonomous driving technology? What is the policy direction of the Trump administration? The US auto industry has many questions.

Fuel Economy Standards

The US government and the auto industry agreed in 2011 to reach a 54.5mpg fuel efficiency standard for 2025, which is currently in the mid-term review stage. Has the situation changed with the Trump administration? The Mercury News pointed out that the Trump administration is very likely to re-establish or simply abolish the 2025 fuel efficiency standard. The US auto industry is in a wait-and-see state. Needless to say, automakers must hope that the government will relax the standards. As soon as Trump won the election, the stocks of the Detroit Big Three immediately rose. The Detroit News pointed out that the stock of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, which has the largest share of pickup trucks and SUVs, soared 9.7% to $7.69 per share.

The Automobile Alliance, which represents major U.S. automakers, wrote to Trump asking him to lower emissions standards. The group said: "The steep increase in emissions standards has brought huge challenges to the auto industry."

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's position

Trump and his choice of EPA chief, Myron Ebell, are both opponents of climate change. In other words, the EPA may not support high fuel efficiency standards in the future. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the California Air Resources Board (CARB) play a relatively large role in setting environmental policy standards. If the EPA denies climate warming, then CARB will speak out. California's car sales account for a large proportion of U.S. car sales, and other states often follow CARB's standards, making CARB standards the de facto national standards in the United States. It is worth noting that CARB can set emission standards higher than EPA's. CARB's first regulations were established in 1966. The EPA was formed in 1970. CARB may resist this potential impact through high standards. CARB member Dan Sperling told Bloomberg that CARB will stick to its 2030 greenhouse gas emissions target and believes that CARB's efforts will not be greatly affected by the Trump administration's EPA.

Electric Vehicles

The Trump administration has not yet made a specific policy on electric vehicles, but the Obama administration's implementation of the $7,500 tax credit policy is likely to be "shaky." Tesla CEO Musk seems calm about Trump's policy. Musk said that if the Trump administration cancels or reduces zero-emission vehicle credits, it will actually strengthen Tesla's position in the industry. This month, the Obama administration just announced the "National Electric Vehicle Charging Corridor" to facilitate the use of electric vehicles. After Trump takes over, it will be questionable whether this "corridor" and other related plans can survive.

Autonomous driving and shared mobility

On November 29, local time in the United States, Trump's transition team announced the nomination of Elaine Chao as Secretary of Transportation. Trump has pledged to invest $1 trillion in transportation, bridges, ports and other public transportation infrastructure in the United States. Chao will play a key role in helping Trump's infrastructure spending bill get congressional approval, and will also play an important role in decision-making on issues related to self-driving cars and U.S. fuel efficiency standards.

Little is known about Chao's position on self-driving cars. Recode analysis said that self-driving regulations may not be Chao's focus, but Trump and Chao are expected to work together with the technology and transportation industries to build roads and infrastructure that are conducive to the development of self-driving technology.

In addition, Chao seems to be very friendly to the "sharing economy". When talking about the need to reduce regulation of travel sharing and home sharing start-ups, she believes that these services only add additional sources of income for drivers and homeowners.

Volkswagen exhaust scandal

Germany is very worried that Trump will undermine the agreement reached between Volkswagen and the federal government. Volkswagen CEO Mueller said after Trump's election: "I hope the election results will not have a negative impact on Volkswagen. We are about to reach a "settlement agreement", but the decision is not up to me in the US judicial department."

Mexico Factory

GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler and many other global automakers have invested tens of billions of dollars in Mexico; GM and Volkswagen's Mexican factories produce a large number of cars and parts every year. Trump once threatened to impose high taxes on auto assembly activities between the United States and Mexico. In November, under Trump's "coercion and inducement", Ford Motor Company gave up moving its factory to Mexico. Some contents of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) may be renegotiated. The Trump administration may set up trade barriers to protect automakers that have set up factories in the United States.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.