Will Apple, which has made one stupid move after another, become the next Nokia?

When the Samsung Note7 bombed, Samsung, Apple's biggest rival in the high-end mobile phone market, suffered a setback. Moreover, Samsung was very aggressive in 2016, and the Note7, which was launched with the momentum of the S7 series, was well received in the early stage. When the outside world expected Apple and Samsung to show off their skills to each other, Samsung bombed first. It was really Mr. Steve Jobs' blessing that he gave Apple a free point question, and it was the last question. Samsung was just going to be beaten.

Unexpectedly, Apple, which won without any effort, was so disappointing. When it saw Samsung breaking one of its arms, it did not want to quickly suppress Samsung, which was gaining momentum again. Instead, it slapped itself in the face twice, released a smoke bomb and started to commit suicide.

The one-sided situation did not occur. Apple, with the spirit of not necessarily dying even if it commits suicide, launched the extremely mediocre iPhone 7. Except for the extra camera, you have no idea what Apple has been busy with this year.

Perhaps the biggest change in Apple's entire product line this year is the addition of a marquee on the MacBook Pro. In return, the Apple logo light will no longer light up, so people will no longer be able to show off in Starbucks.

How bad was Apple in 2016?

First, iPhone sales have been declining for three consecutive quarters, and at one point the decline was as high as 15%. Apple's Q4 2016 financial report showed that its annual revenue fell for the first time in 15 years, even affecting the performance of supply chain companies.

The decline of the iPhone is already quite obvious. More and more users no longer associate "cool" with "Apple", but "mediocrity". In the same year, the Android camp launched dual-curved, full-screen, modular, all-ceramic and other eye-catching designs.

It is hard to imagine that these amazing designs do not appear on the iPhone. In fact, we have found that Apple has become conservative a long time ago. This may be the dilemma of the leader, always thinking about how to maximize profits instead of thinking about "innovation."

Just like Nokia, which once dominated the mobile phone industry, after maximizing profits by "technology based on changing the shell", it was quickly crushed by the rise of iPhone, and its huge empire was destroyed overnight.

Of course, Apple is far from being in such a dangerous situation, and users have not betrayed Apple, but have chosen to "wait" with their old models. However, we don't know how long this wait will last.

(iPhone 6 ranks first, and the latest iPhone 7 has a lower market share than iPhone 5s three years ago)

In 2016, Apple launched a series of products including iPhone SE, iPad Pro, iwatch2, iPhone7/plus, MacBook/pro, Air Pods, etc. However, these products all faced their own dilemmas.

The iPhone SE has learned from the iPhone 5c’s mistakes. While the configuration has not been reduced, the price has dropped significantly. This is partly due to the needs of users of small-screen phones and partly due to the weak sales of the iPhone 6s/plus. In fact, the iPhone SE faces the same dilemma as the iPhone 5c and is difficult to be accepted by mainstream users.

The iPad Pro is a product that is neither fish nor fowl. It is simply a leftover product from Microsoft's past few years and has been proven to be a failure by the market. The lesson of Surface RT is still fresh in our minds. Users don't want a so-called tablet + keyboard product. Since we already have Mac and iPad, why do we need an iPad Pro?

The problem with Apple Watch 2 is not with itself. Of course, we cannot expect Apple Watch to bring about earth-shaking changes. This is just a routine upgrade, mainly in terms of processor, battery and waterproof performance.

The problem lies mainly in the overall environment, because everyone suddenly realized, what is the point of having a watch like this when the battery life is not good enough and it can only tell time? When the novelty wore off, the shipment volume of smart watches plummeted.

The smartwatch shipment data report released by market research firm IDC also shows that the overall consumption situation is not optimistic: in the third quarter of 2016, only 2.7 million smartwatches were sold worldwide, a year-on-year decrease of more than 50%.

Now I am going to talk about iPhone 7/plus. This may be the most failed phone in the history of iPhone. It exudes mediocrity from the inside out. It is hard to believe that this is a product from Apple. There is almost no highlight to be seen.

I even suspected that the antenna on the back was copied from Meizu. Of course, this is impossible, but it is a naked irony. How conservative a company must be to launch such a product that does not have any surprises.

Meanwhile, Apple encountered the "battery gate" incident. So far, Apple has not given an explanation that can convince users. It has only made conditional replacements for some batches of mobile phones, or even changed the replacement to repair. This is undoubtedly a decline in the high-quality after-sales service of Apple.

iOS, which is jokingly called "buy iOS and get a phone for free", is no longer attractive. The interface has not changed much since iOS7. On the contrary, its stability has been declining with each generation. Since iOS8, various bugs have continued to appear. Of course, on the one hand, this is due to the gradual opening up of iOS, but the blame for the bugs cannot be entirely attributed to "openness."

The interface and battery life of the 2016 MacBook/pro were criticized so much that they could not be complained about anymore, and were even once judged as "not recommended" by Consumer Reports. The logo light not being on is acceptable, after all, it is not the era when you can show off your wealth by relying on Mac anymore, and the running light is at most a mixed bag, everyone has their own preferences.

For users, multiple fingerprint unlocking does not matter much, because the unlocking requirements of laptops and mobile phones are different. I need quick and secure mobile phone unlocking, but on Mac, the experience of entering a password is not bad, because I don’t need to open the Mac after a while.

To be fair, the 2016 MacBook/pro is still good. It is lighter and thinner, and has fingerprint unlocking and a ticking timer. But I still recommend that you buy the 2015 model. After all, it looks quite classy with the logo light on.

Air Pods are a product that lives in jokes. You can pick up a lot of them on a subway ride. Fortunately, they are expensive and produced in small quantities (still hard to buy now), so the joke has not become a reality yet. Let's also relive the feeling of rushing to buy an iPhone back then.

So what will Apple bring us in 2017?

It has to be said that Apple's luck is really good. When it was almost bankrupt, Microsoft lent a hand. Now when it is in crisis, Samsung's crown prince Lee Jae-yong was arrested for suspected "girlfriend gate" incident...

It is said that in 2017, the tenth anniversary of the iPhone, Apple will launch the iPhone 8, which is full of black technology. Of course, this is just a rumor. However, for Apple, whose performance is heavily dependent on the iPhone, if it still cannot launch a product that will impress users this year, the situation will further deteriorate.

As the largest consumer of iPhones, China's mobile phone market is already seriously saturated. The good news is that users are increasingly demanding high-end mobile phones, which is still a new growth opportunity for the iPhone. The bad news is that the rise of domestic mobile phones is also constantly eating into this market.

After several years of development, domestic mobile phones have been narrowing the gap with Apple and Samsung in terms of design and R&D. At the same time, this gap can often be influenced by price and marketing strategies. For Apple, it must spend more time to maintain this market.

To put it simply, Nokia's method of changing the shell back then simply doesn't work. Don't even think about using this method to fool Chinese users again. Nokia is a lesson for Apple.

It has been 10 years since the first iPhone was launched in 2007. In the past 10 years, smartphones have undergone tremendous changes under the guidance of the iPhone. At the same time, the iPhone has also changed from a disruptor to a "big brother", becoming the object of the new generation of products.

Apple is lucky that its biggest rival is currently on fire, so it can move forward at a leisurely pace. However, the real disruptor will definitely not be Samsung, just as it was not Motorola that defeated Nokia, but a completely new and different product.

In addition to being wary of its competitors, Apple should also be wary of itself. Apple is now showing itself to the outside world as increasingly arrogant and conceited. Apple may not feel it, but as a consumer business company, the iPhone directly faces users, and users are always curious and impatient.

In 2017, I hope that Apple will bring brand new changes to users, rather than the hidden "innovation" of squeezing out toothpaste. In addition to design, there will also be functional leadership, such as how to more closely integrate AR technology and mobile phones, how to make Siri a real assistant in terms of operating experience, etc.

Undoubtedly, the 10th anniversary of the iPhone will become a hot topic in the coming days. We will all talk about what Apple will bring us this time. This expectation is enthusiastic and will be seen as another "innovation" of Apple. I hope that this time Apple will not bring us disappointment!

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.