Tesla may encounter problems digesting 500,000 orders. Battery production capacity breakthrough may become a common problem in the development of electric vehicles
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Although Elon Musk tweeted on the 10th to confirm that the first Model 3 will soon roll off the production line. However, since last week, his mood has been like a roller coaster. Just after Musk excitedly announced the good news, it was revealed that Tesla's market value evaporated by $12 billion in two days, causing it to give up the position of the largest automaker in the United States to General Motors again. The harsh reality followed one after another. Although the news that Model 3 has completed production is enough to make consumers who have made reservations in advance excited, it is probably too early to talk about picking up the car. Since the current orders for Model 3 exceed 500,000 units, Tesla's production capacity is pitifully small. It is difficult to break through the core technology. Battery production capacity has become a bottleneck for the output rate of electric vehicles. It is reported that only 30 owners who have booked Model 3 this month can successfully pick up the car, 100 in next month, and 1,500 in September. Until the end of the year, the monthly production capacity of Model 3 can only ensure 20,000 vehicles. If this is considered "full firepower" for Tesla, then it is expected that hundreds of thousands of orders will be digested and completed in mid-2019. Even if the production capacity is maximized, the monthly production of 20,000 vehicles cannot ensure that the quality is not sacrificed. At that time, Model X encountered a lot of problems in production. Not to mention whether the supply chain will lag behind is also a problem. Tesla also announced the second quarter electric vehicle delivery volume recently. Due to the severe shortage of 100kWh battery packs, they only delivered 22,000 electric vehicles this quarter. Given Tesla’s "glorious" history of defaulting on tickets, some industry experts believe that Musk’s capacity ramp-up plan may be extremely bumpy in the future. It is well known that the key to electric vehicles is energy, that is, the battery itself. However, from the current situation, there is no breakthrough in battery technology. Due to rigid factors such as high prices, the primary application areas of related new technologies are generally in products with higher unit prices such as high-end mobile phones. There has been no major technological leap from nickel-metal hydride to lithium batteries for mobile phone batteries, and it is reasonable that automotive power batteries are unlikely to make major progress. The trend of confrontation is gradually taking shape. If you want to have the last laugh, you still need to solve the problem of battery production capacity . As early as last year, Dieter Zetsche, CEO of Mercedes-Benz Daimler, said that there is an overcapacity of battery production in the current market, and he will not invest in battery production capacity with other German luxury brands for at least the next four to six years. However, less than a year later, Volkswagen Group expressed the opposite concern. Thomas Sedran, a senior strategic executive of Volkswagen Group, pointed out last month when evaluating the six largest battery suppliers in the world competing for orders: "No one has enough production capacity." As global emission regulations are tightened, the pressure on car companies to electrify their engines is also increasing. The big question ahead is whether the production capacity of electric vehicle batteries in the next 10 years can meet the rapidly growing demand predicted by car companies. When Tesla's depressing production capacity data was released, Volvo Cars, which is controlled by Chinese car company Geely, said that all new cars launched from 2019 will be pure electric or hybrid vehicles, which means that Volvo will become the first major automaker to abandon traditional car engines, which is undoubtedly a challenge to Tesla. Jia Yueting promised earlier that the FF91, which is currently in the testing phase, would be mass-produced in 2018. It also faces the same situation. At a time when electric vehicle manufacturers are generally troubled by car battery problems, FF91 can be said to have made major breakthroughs in key technologies such as large-scale battery energy storage and discharge. And it is a breakthrough with large-scale commercial value. At present, most car companies rarely plan to produce batteries like Tesla, and the key is that they lack technology. Battery prices are another important obstacle to the development of electric vehicles. However, as energy density increases, battery prices are also falling. According to data provided by Swedish consulting firm EV Volumes, the current global lithium-ion battery shipments are 41.57gWh. BNP Paribas analysts recently released a very optimistic report on the prospects of electric vehicles, which pointed out that by 2020, the price of battery packs will be halved to US$215/kwh, and by 2025, the price will drop to US$140/kwh or even 100 euros/kwh. It is foreseeable that no matter how the growth rate of electric vehicle development will be in the future, under the current situation that pushes automakers and suppliers to make changes, only the party that takes the initiative in battery production capacity is more likely to laugh at the end. As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity. |
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