Chen Qingtai: The shortage of raw materials such as cobalt and nickel has become a major risk in the development of new energy vehicles

"The global lithium, cobalt and nickel resources show oligopolistic characteristics. China is short of nickel and cobalt resources and has a high degree of external dependence. In the long run, there is a risk of resource security." On June 27, at the 2018 China (Qinghai) Lithium Industry and Power Battery International Summit Forum, Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100, disclosed the above information.

Chen Qingtai said that although China has abundant lithium resources, the endowment is poor and the utilization rate is relatively low. All these factors have caused great hidden dangers in China's development of the energy industry, especially new energy vehicles.

According to statistics, the shipment of power lithium batteries in my country reached 39.1GWh in 2017, accounting for about 50% of the total scale of the lithium battery industry. Among them, the shipment of automotive power batteries reached 38GWh, accounting for 65.4% of the global automotive power battery shipments. It is expected that with the development of new energy vehicles and energy storage markets, the scale of lithium batteries will further expand, which will also bring huge demand for resources such as lithium and cobalt.

On the other hand, China's current proven reserves of raw materials do not match the huge demand. According to the "Lithium Battery Industry Development Report (2018)" released by the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum, the prices of raw materials such as lithium and cobalt required for lithium battery production have risen rapidly in recent years. The main factor is the substantial growth of the power battery market, and the corresponding increase in demand for resources such as lithium and cobalt. However, due to market monopoly and long data and material release cycles, the supply is insufficient.

Analysts believe that this will not only affect the operations of power battery companies, but will also have a huge impact on changes in power battery technology routes and the promotion of new energy vehicles.

Kou Nannan, senior analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, told China Business News that although technological progress can reduce the cobalt content in the raw material structure of batteries, the process is slow and there is no possibility of completely replacing cobalt materials. He believes that the shortage of cobalt will become one of the major risks in the development of new energy vehicles in China and even the world.

The reduction of subsidies requires the transfer of costs, which puts double pressure on battery companies, making them feel great financial pressure, and some companies have begun to experience operational difficulties.

In addition to the problems caused by the shortage of raw materials, insufficient capacity utilization has also become one of the obstacles to the development of new energy vehicles. Chen Qingtai pointed out that the current power battery market has seen the coexistence of tight market supply and overcapacity. Data shows that in 2017, China's power battery production capacity has exceeded 200GWh, but the overall capacity utilization rate is only 40%. The polarization of the market is very obvious, with insufficient supply of high-end and high-quality production capacity, insufficient orders for low-end production capacity, and difficulties in production and operation, showing a structural overcapacity.

In Chen Qingtai's view, the country should formulate medium- and long-term resource planning, regard lithium, nickel, cobalt and other resources as strategic resources, strengthen resource exploration, evaluation, mining and resource recycling, strengthen market supervision, guide prices to return to rationality, encourage enterprises to deploy upstream resources globally, and reduce resource risks. In addition, it is necessary to strictly control resource mining and battery production projects and improve technical levels to resist risks and improve energy security.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.