What is the unknown fate of shared bicycles?
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The shared bicycle industry has been in the news recently. First, Chongqing Wukong shared bicycle became the first company to exit the market. Then, the two big guys behind Mobike and ofo had a "mutual attack" in the circle of friends. Later, ofo raised the original 99 yuan deposit to 199 yuan. These actions show that after experiencing wild growth, this industry has begun to enter a bottleneck period and faces anxiety about the direction of development. Shared bicycles first appeared with a kind of public welfare purpose, because no company could give a business model for this industry. It was just a kind of Internet startup, repeating the past path of Internet companies: relying on large-scale investment to create more traffic first, and then thinking about how to monetize the traffic. This is similar to the practice of Internet taxi software attracting customers through large-scale subsidies. Since the entry threshold of shared bicycles is relatively low, mainly bicycle manufacturing, group procurement costs are lower, which has led to a lot of capital influx, so that everyone joked that "shared bicycles have not enough colors". Low entry barriers and expanding regional markets have become the goals of latecomers, because if the market share in a large city is high, the company can be sold to the industry leader or second. In the Chinese Internet world, it is a common practice to quickly build a company to a certain scale and then wait for mergers and acquisitions to make quick money. Because for shared bicycle companies other than the top two in the industry, they lack the ability to raise funds and can hardly continue to invest (continuously launch new bicycles) for a long time. Therefore, the withdrawal of Wukong shared bicycles is not surprising. Unlike other industries, shared bicycles may be difficult to merge and acquire because customers are random, especially when many latecomers are exempt from paying deposits. As long as the leader or the second can continue to invest, the followers can be automatically "cleared" in time without the need to invest in mergers and acquisitions, which may be a huge tragedy for many followers. Shared bicycles have received some support at the policy level in China, and government departments are also preparing to issue the "Guiding Opinions on Encouraging and Regulating the Development of Internet Rental Bicycles" to guide the standardized development of the industry. As a Chinese initiative, China's shared bicycles have attracted much attention in international public opinion. Including Mobike and ofo have begun to promote bicycles to Europe, Japan, Singapore and other places. It can be said that shared bicycles have become part of "China's soft power". However, this thing is not very suitable in the Chinese environment. Because, when the competition of shared bicycles relies on the scale of deployment (providing more supply) to grab more customers, some companies will place too many bicycles in public places, occupying more sidewalks, and even motor vehicle lanes, squares and other places are crowded with bicycles. In other words, as a commercial activity, it is at the expense of public space and traffic order to a certain extent. Bicycles bring benefits to some users and companies, but let others pay the cost. This is unfair, unreasonable, and also at the expense of violations. In addition, from the current situation of use, the damage rate of shared bicycles is too high, and even a large number of them have been "privatized". This market-destructive behavior will cause the cost of enterprises to be too high and difficult to maintain in the long run. Moreover, there is no possibility of reducing or being stopped by regulation. Therefore, shared bicycle companies should not only rely on the number of deployments that exceed the reasonable level to grow wildly. If they want to develop in the long run, they should also bear social responsibilities. Of course, related companies may show their social value by providing public welfare travel and reducing emissions. However, this is not reliable for capital. When the Internet car rental industry was swarming, it was given by enterprises and the public to break the taxi monopoly, reduce travel costs, and provide better services. However, after a series of mergers and acquisitions, the monopoly of Internet car rental business has greatly increased the fees, and the service is no longer so good. Everything has returned to the goal of earning more commercial profits, which has made the public happy for nothing. Now, Mobike has just completed a new round of huge financing, and ofo is also on the way to financing. Followers may soon exit this market. If one or two companies eventually monopolize the market under the dominance of capital, we cannot judge what the outcome will be for consumers. Shared bicycles are suitable for cities where public spaces (such as parking spaces and bicycle lanes) are well planned and managed, and the quality of residents is high (will not be destroyed at will). Therefore, Mobike and ofo are currently actively exploring the market in developed countries, exporting China's low-cost manufacturing and Chinese business models. At the same time, this is also a lifestyle that conforms to the concept of environmental protection and green, which will bring more positive international influence to China and Chinese innovation. Returning to the fate of shared bikes in China, if the operation mode of random parking is not changed, if widespread vandalism is not stopped, and if healthy competition cannot be carried out between enterprises, it will be difficult for shared bikes to grow healthily in Chinese cities. And if the industry monopoly phenomenon eventually emerges, the consequences may be even worse. Considering that China's central cities have too many people and too little road space, if the government does not improve the planning and governance of urban public spaces, it will be difficult for shared bikes to have a healthy development soil. At least so far, investors in shared bikes have gambled huge amounts of capital on a commercial experiment, and the purpose of the experiment must be commercial profit. We can tolerate commercial innovation, but society should not bear too much cost. We need competent public managers, law-abiding enterprises, and high-quality urban residents. As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity. |
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