The United States is leading in autonomous driving, but China has no choice but to give up its illusions and rely on itself to catch up.

Autonomous driving technology is the future development direction of the global automotive industry. On July 16, the People's Daily said: China's autonomous driving can only be solved by the Chinese themselves.

At present, many countries in the world attach great importance to the development of the autonomous driving industry, and the competition among them is becoming increasingly fierce.

However, the technology of autonomous driving is not mature enough and is on the eve of a large-scale outbreak. So, judging from the current situation at the beginning, what are the chances of China's autonomous driving industry winning in this competition?

The gap exists objectively, and overtaking is not a dream

Google set up a dedicated autonomous driving division as early as 2009. And in the first few years, Google was the only player in the field of autonomous driving.

Over the years, Google has been continuously improving its technology and has taken a leading position in the field of global autonomous driving.

The U.S. California autonomous driving test report shows that in 2017, the average number of human interventions for Google's driverless test cars was only 0.8 times per 1,600 kilometers.

my country started late in autonomous driving, and its accumulation of data, algorithms, and talent is relatively weak. Baidu is in a leading position in autonomous driving in China. Compared with its international peers, Baidu has made rapid progress and has surpassed Apple and Tesla, but it is still in the second echelon in the field of autonomous driving.

There is still a big gap between China and other countries in the commercialization of autonomous driving.

In May this year, Waymo, Google's self-driving division, announced that it would purchase 62,000 Chrysler Pacifica hybrid vehicles from FCA to expand its public self-driving taxi fleet across the United States.

From 600 Chrysler Pacificas, to 20,000 Jaguar I-PACEs, and now to 62,000 Pacificas, the speed of Waymo's commercialization of autonomous driving has gradually accelerated.

In contrast, in China, although Baidu delivered Apollo buses as scheduled this year, the scale was only 100 vehicles, and most of them are currently operating in closed scenarios.

It has to be admitted that China's autonomous driving technology still has a big gap with that of international advanced companies.

However, although China's autonomous driving industry developed later than the United States and its technology is relatively backward, there is no generation gap between the two sides in terms of road test data, high-precision map reserves, core algorithms, etc.

Moreover, autonomous driving still has a long way to go before it can be truly perfected, and China still has a chance to overtake. The reason is that China has a larger market capacity and a more aggressive investment style.

Strong market and investment demand

China is currently the world's largest automobile production and sales market, but it is also facing serious problems such as environmental pollution and traffic congestion.

More than 260,000 people die in road accidents in China every year, almost eight times the number in the United States. Once autonomous driving matures, its biggest advantage is safety. In the long run, China needs autonomous driving even more.

In China, people are very receptive to autonomous driving.

Last year, JD Power's "Chinese Consumers' Autonomous Driving Preference Survey" showed that 10% and 68% of Chinese consumers said they "completely trust" and "may trust" fully autonomous driving technology, and only 4% of consumers "completely distrust" fully autonomous driving technology.

A similar study by JD Power in the United States showed that 35% of Americans "completely do not believe" in fully autonomous driving technology, and more than a quarter of Americans believe that autonomous driving technology has no benefits.

Boston Consulting Group said that by 2035, global sales of autonomous vehicles will reach 12 million, of which more than a quarter will be sold in China.

McKinsey predicts that China is likely to become the world's largest autonomous driving market in the future. By 2030, revenue from new car sales and travel services related to autonomous driving will exceed US$500 billion.

Under the temptation of huge market prospects, capital has gradually followed suit. The enthusiasm of China's capital market for autonomous driving is growing day by day.

In the field of autonomous driving, 3 to 6 new companies have been established almost every year since 2011.

Between 2012 and 2017, about $7 billion in venture capital was invested in Chinese self-driving technology companies, an amount comparable to the amount invested in U.S. startups during the same period.

China is working hard to catch up with the world's advanced level in the field of autonomous driving.

China's Advantages

Considering the need for industrial upgrading and overtaking others, China's demand for autonomous driving is more urgent.

The standards for autonomous driving vary from state to state in the United States, and overall the control over autonomous driving is stricter.

China's industrial policy implementation is more efficient. Once the top government officials are determined to develop relevant industries, various policy supports and laws and regulations will be quickly introduced.

In April this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, and the Ministry of Transport jointly issued the "Smart Connected Vehicle Road Test Management Specifications (Trial)", and nine cities have issued autonomous driving road test regulations. Companies that have passed the qualification review have obtained road test licenses.

Compared with the United States, China has stronger infrastructure construction capabilities. Once the technology matures, the Chinese government will be able to deploy autonomous vehicles more efficiently.

The development of autonomous driving depends on the continuous investment of capital, the development level of artificial intelligence and the reserve of high-precision maps. Considering that autonomous driving is more likely to be put into commercial use in the form of shared cars or taxi fleets at the beginning, the ability to match people with cars and choose routes is also an important condition for autonomous driving.

In addition, hardware support including the entire vehicle and sensor system also affects the speed of implementation of autonomous driving.

The Chinese economy is facing a strong need for industrial upgrading. Both the capital market and the government see autonomous driving as a good opportunity for China to overtake others. China has sufficient capital and willingness to make long-term investments in autonomous driving.

High-precision maps involve information security, and China already has sufficient technical strength to complete this work. It is hard to imagine that foreign companies can have too much say in this part of the Chinese market.

China has made remarkable achievements in the field of AI. Baidu has placed its future on AI. China can fully develop the artificial intelligence needed for autonomous driving on its own.

Although China has a certain foundation in hardware manufacturing, it is generally weak and needs to strengthen scientific research and international cooperation.

Autonomous driving technology is highly regionalized, and the technology route cannot be simply "copied and pasted." Especially in terms of data collection, it is very dependent on localization. Chinese local companies have the opportunity to get the moon first because they are close to the water.

my country has a high traffic density, with pedestrians, non-motor vehicles and cars mixed together, and traffic behavior is very random. It is also difficult to directly apply foreign autonomous driving algorithms in China.

China's complex road conditions have undoubtedly increased the difficulty of implementing autonomous driving. But at the same time, the complex environment also provides a richer traffic scenario for the development of autonomous driving. With the launch of large-scale road testing of autonomous driving in China, China is expected to have a safer and more powerful autonomous driving platform.

China's advantages in the entire industrial chain

Autonomous driving is a systematic project that requires the participation of many companies.

China has a complete industry chain for autonomous driving, from raw materials to first-tier suppliers, second-tier suppliers, OEMs, and finally to travel service providers.

Although there is still a certain gap between the overall level and that of foreign countries, China has many dynamic start-ups, and Baidu's Apollo provides a platform for resource integration.

Relying on China's advantages in manufacturing, China's autonomous driving industry will have considerable cost advantages over Western developed countries in the future.

However, if Chinese companies want to occupy the middle and high end of the industrial chain, they still need to achieve breakthroughs in core technologies such as sensors, artificial intelligence chips, high-precision maps, and algorithms.

The differences between Baidu and Google provide us with a glimpse into the development paths of autonomous driving technology in China and the United States.

When it comes to autonomous driving, Google prefers to do it itself, and only opens up the things it doesn’t want to do to others, trying to control the vast majority of the industry chain as much as possible. Google not only launched its own shared driverless car service, but also independently developed a full set of sensor systems.

Doing so is a reflection of Google's strength and will help Google control more profit points. Limit Google's space for cooperation. Strong traditional car companies will not want to see Google eat the whole thing.

Due to its own lack of technical strength and financial scale, Baidu focuses its energy on the development of autonomous driving software and is committed to building an ecological chain to seek win-win results.

Baidu strives to consolidate its advantages in areas where it excels, such as AI, autonomous driving technology and high-precision maps; chips, sensor systems, visual systems, etc. integrate the capabilities of partners through platforms and then empower car companies.

If Google uses its partners' vehicle platforms to build its own cars, then Baidu uses technology and solutions to help its partners build cars.

Google hopes to replicate Apple's integrated closed model in the field of autonomous driving, while Baidu's Apollo is building an open ecosystem and attracting more partners.

When developing autonomous driving, China also pays more attention to seeking international cooperation.

China and Japan have long reached a consensus on cooperation in autonomous driving at the government level, and have expressed their willingness to cooperate in areas such as highway testing rules for autonomous driving and the formulation of international standards for communication infrastructure.

A few days ago, China and Germany signed a joint statement of intent on cooperation in the field of automated connected driving. Enterprises from both countries have also recently carried out very intensive cooperation on autonomous driving.

China's attitude towards developing the autonomous driving industry is more open, which will help reduce the adverse effects of regional differences and promote cooperation in standard unification, laws and regulations, infrastructure, and data. The huge market prospects of China's autonomous driving also make companies from other countries want to get a piece of the pie, which has prompted them to strengthen cooperation with local Chinese companies.

In the future, a more open Chinese autonomous driving is likely to win more opportunities.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.