The world's most expensive iron sheet cools down: Shanghai license plate auction prices drop by up to 40%
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Li Ming, who originally planned to buy a car in January 2019, plans to wait for a while. Li Ming told reporters that there are two reasons for postponing the car purchase plan. "I went to Audi and Mercedes-Benz 4S stores a while ago, and now the mid-to-high-end models are not available," and the Lexus he is interested in will not be available until July. Another reason is that he realized that the number of bidders participating in the Shanghai private car license plate auction has shrunk from 202,000 in July to 165,000 in December at the end of the year, which means that the winning rate will increase. In addition, the Economic Observer reporter found that although the number of bidders for Shanghai unit license plates has not changed, the number of unit license plates released last year has been rising, resulting in a downward trend in its average transaction price, from the previous highest of more than 200,000 to the lowest of just over 120,000, a drop of up to 40%. Regarding the phenomenon of Shanghai license plate data being cold, the team of Liang Zhonghua, a macro analyst at Zhongtai Securities, has also conducted research and pointed out that the cooling of the license plate auction market reflects the decline in residents' consumption capacity and the weakening of economic benefits at the corporate level. Looking at the whole country, the growth rate of China's automobile industry is facing challenges due to the withdrawal of tax reduction and exemption policies and the slowdown of macroeconomic figures. According to the newly released data of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the national automobile sales volume fell by 2.8% year-on-year. This is also the first decline in the number in nearly three decades. According to official information, the number of bidders for Shanghai private car license plates in January was 168,000, a slight increase of 3,172 from the previous month, the winning rate was 7.6%, and the average transaction price was 89,565 yuan, an increase of 2,057 yuan from the previous month. At the same time, the number of Shanghai public car license plates released was 1,870, 126 less than the previous month. The auction of Shanghai license plate quotas has "cooled down" The auction of Shanghai private car license plates began in 1986, and the real auction system was established in 1992. In order to solve the traffic congestion in Shanghai, the auction system for the newly added passenger car quota was implemented for the first time in 1994. Shanghai began to implement a policy of reserve price and non-public auction for private car license plates. Car buyers can go to the vehicle management office to register their purchased vehicles with the quota obtained after winning the auction, and have the right to use motor vehicles in the central urban area of Shanghai (the area within the outer ring road). Shanghai license plates have always been known as "the most expensive iron sheets in the world", but reporters have observed that the current Shanghai license plate auction market has cooled down. According to data, from 2016 to March 2018, the number of bidders participating in the Shanghai private car license auction has remained in the range of 220,000 to 270,000 per month, and the number of monthly releases has remained at around 10,000. However, the average transaction price experienced a round of increases during this period, from 87,685 yuan in early 2017 to a peak of 93,540 yuan in October 2017. However, the above situation began to change in July 2018. In July 2018, there were still 202,000 bidders participating in the auction of Shanghai private car license plates. After that, the number of bidders decreased by about 10,000 per month. By December 2018, the number of bidders was only 165,000, the lowest since 2016. The average transaction price remained in the range of about 87,500-88,000. A person in charge of license plates at Chepai.com told reporters that the starting price of Shanghai private license plates will be raised in 2019 to 89,000 yuan. "The winning rate is still okay at present, and the average is about 5%." He told reporters that the reason why the number of private license plate bidders has decreased is that the current new energy vehicle license plates are delivered, "removing the people in this area will reduce the number of bids by almost 100,000." Starting from December 1, 2016, Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuxi, Jinan, and Shenzhen took the lead in piloting the use of new energy vehicle license plates. The license plates use a green background and have one more number than ordinary car license plates to promote the development of new energy vehicles, better distinguish and identify new energy vehicles, and implement differentiated traffic management policies. Therefore, owning a green license plate and a regular Shanghai license plate for private cars have formed a substitution relationship. According to data from the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Information Technology, Shanghai added 33,418 new energy vehicles from January to August 2018, a year-on-year increase of 58%, of which 72% were purchased by the private sector. As of September 10, 2018, the cumulative total promotion volume has exceeded 200,000 vehicles, reaching a scale of 201,500 vehicles, accounting for about 10% of the total promotion volume of new energy vehicles in the country. The price of unit license plates has fallen sharply Liang Zhonghua pointed out that the number of people participating in the license plate bidding has decreased significantly, and the number of bidders for private car license plates has dropped to the level of mid-2015, reflecting the decline in residents' consumption capacity. Compared with private car license plates, unit license plates are considered to better reflect the economic conditions of Shanghai enterprises because they reflect the willingness of small and medium-sized enterprises to bid for license plates. Interestingly, in recent years, the number of bidders for unit license plates in Shanghai has not changed much, and has remained at around 3,000 per month, but its transaction price has experienced a sharp decline. The average transaction price has dropped from a peak of 213,000 in August 2016 to 126,000 in December 2018. The reporter found that the sharp drop in the average transaction price of unit license plates came from the increase in the number of license plates released. Unlike the fixed monthly release number of private license plates, according to the data from the license plate network, the number of unit license plates released each month varies greatly. In January 2017, the number of unit license plates released was 1,148, and the average transaction price for that month was 176,793 yuan. By June 2018, the number of unit license plates released had risen to 1,963, and the average transaction price for that month had also dropped to 135,050 yuan. Although the number of unit license plates released in Shanghai fell back to about 1,750 per month, the number of unit license plates released in the last four months of 2018 remained at a high level of more than 1,930. The aforementioned person in charge of license plates on Chepai.com told reporters that although the winning rate of unit license plates is high, they are currently about 40,000 yuan more expensive than private car license plates. In addition, due to the possibility of vehicles being mortgaged, few people will choose to buy public license plates because they cannot bid for private license plates. According to him, the reason for the surge in the number of unit license plates released last year was that many small and medium-sized enterprises chose to withdraw their license plates. He told reporters, "Because the overall economy in Shanghai was not particularly good last year, small companies could not survive, so they chose to withdraw their license plates. If there were too many withdrawn license plates, they would choose to auction them together, so that the number of license plates released would be relatively large." It is understood that the normal monthly supply of unit license plates by the government is 1,000-1,200. This means that the supply of license plates above this range "is withdrawn." Liang Zhonghua also pointed out that the rapid decline in the number of public car license plates from more than 200,000 to 120,000 was due to the weakening of economic benefits at the enterprise level. According to the data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in December 2018, automobile production was 2.4822 million units, down 0.7% from the previous month and down 18.4% from the previous year; sales were 2.6615 million units, up 4.5% from the previous month and down 13.0% from the previous year. Compared with November, automobile production in December decreased slightly from the previous month, while sales increased slightly; compared with the same period last year, both production and sales showed a rapid decline. As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity. |
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