5G is not popular? Not true! That's just because cloud gaming has not arrived yet

Looking at the history of human communications, every technological upgrade has brought earth-shaking changes to our lives. Not to mention the distant past, the transition from 2G to 3G networks alone has prompted the iPhone to "change the world."

5G networks have made revolutionary progress. Industry players who are well versed in the development of technology unanimously believe that as it matures, a new "iPhone" will inevitably emerge, which will affect the entire technology industry.

But surprisingly, the entire industry has not fully rolled out 5G terminals or applications. So, what exactly is the reason why 5G is in such an embarrassing situation at present?

5G era: both terminals and applications are cold

Judging from the previous patterns of network technology upgrades, the maturity of mobile network technology has directly resulted in the prosperity of the mobile terminal market and content.

According to a report released by TrendForce, in the second year of commercial use of 4G network technology, global smartphone shipments reached 1.167 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%; data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology showed that China's total mobile traffic in 2015 was 4.187 billion GB, a year-on-year increase of 103%. The average monthly mobile access traffic per user reached 389.3M, a year-on-year increase of 89.9%. It was also from this year that short videos, mobile games and other content began to become the mainstream of the market.

However, this upward market trend did not last long. As 4G networks gradually became saturated, related terminals began to experience negative growth. According to a data report released by IDC, China's smartphone shipments fell 12.3% year-on-year in 2017.

Under this market pressure, with the gradual commercialization of 5G networks in 2019, industry players also saw this opportunity and launched related terminals and content services in an attempt to seize the dividends after the first wave of 5G applications. The significant result of this product orientation is that in the first half of 2020, even thousand-yuan phones began to support 5G networks.

However, contrary to manufacturers' expectations, the entire mobile phone market is still deserted and miserable. According to IDC data, in the first half of 2020, China's smartphone shipments were only 153 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7%.

Similar to the development of mobile terminals, the applications and content enabled by 5G networks have not seen the expected innovations.

According to the data from the "China Mobile Internet 2020 Half-Year Report" released by QuestMobile, the top five industries in China's mobile Internet in the first half of 2020 were instant messaging, comprehensive e-commerce, online video, short video and map navigation. In comparison, these top industries are still the fruits of the mobile Internet in the past decade, and have not undergone substantial changes due to the emergence of 5G networks.

The gap between technology and products

No one can deny the value of 5G networks. On the contrary, since all aspects of 5G network data have been updated exponentially compared to previous generations of networks, its impact on the industry is bound to be no less than that of 3G and 4G.

Therefore, when we reflect on the situation in combination with technological trends, we will find that the reason why the current 5G network has been "cold" is closely related to the fact that the entire technology industry has failed to bridge the gap between technology and products and applications.

Taking 3G network as an example, the improvement of its bandwidth capacity makes the transmission of pictures, texts and videos possible, and the iPhone's main features such as "super large screen" and the latest "short video" and other content forms are actually just actively catering to the needs of this era.

Taking this as a benchmark, looking back at the product and content ecosystem in the 5G era, although it is also trying its best to cater to the technical characteristics of 5G products, there has been no real breakthrough.

The peak speed of 5G network can reach 20Gbps, and the content side has begun to promote "downloading a movie in 4 seconds". However, how many people really need this function? Do users who are already accustomed to streaming media really need to download movies before watching them?

From the perspective of consumer demand, with the popularization of WiFi and the "speed increase and fee reduction" of 4G networks, there is actually no strong demand for download speed, and the content format and product form of 5G have not changed much compared to the 4G era.

As a result, the industry has seen a contradiction between advanced network technology and delayed devices and content. It can be said that this contradiction is not only the primary cause of the market cooling trend mentioned above, but if it continues, it may even hinder the progress of the industry - users' perception of 5G is being misled by operators' propaganda.

Cloud gaming is the biggest opportunity for 5G

From a product perspective, most mobile terminals currently only try to improve network connectivity for 5G, and follow the characteristics of the 4G network era to further enhance the computing power of the device. Although this product strategy is understandable in the 4G network era, the technical characteristics of the 5G era determine that these two product features should not be in parallel, but in a relative relationship.

On July 19, at Alibaba's 2020 Yunqi Conference, Alibaba Cloud launched the cloud computer "Shadowless", which put into practice the "relative" product concept of the 5G era.

Unlike traditional computers, "Shadowless" does not have a heavy host. The whole machine is only the size of a hard drive, but it can access the cloud system through the 5G network. It can be expanded up to 104-core CPU and 1.5TB of storage space. And with the same configuration, the price of "Shadowless" is only half of that of a traditional host.

In short, "Shadowless" strengthens network connectivity on the one hand, and deliberately weakens the computing power of the device on the other hand, thereby lowering the threshold for consumers to use it while innovating the terminal. At this time, when we compare it with 5G smartphones that still emphasize localized performance and running points, there is no doubt that "Shadowless"'s product strategy is better.

Complementing this weakening of terminals and strengthening of cloud capabilities, the Internet industry has also seen two major trends in the 5G era at the application level - online cloud disks and cloud games.

In August, Zhang Jianfeng, President of Alibaba Cloud Intelligence and Dean of the DAMO Academy, said when launching the cloud disk product "Alibaba Cloud Netdisk" for C-end users: "Personal cloud is the trend of the future. In the future, everyone will have a space on the cloud to store content. Alibaba Cloud is making a personal cloud product for the future." In combination with "Shadowless", since local terminal devices tend to be "extremely simplified" in the future, the cloud will inevitably become the data center of users.

According to the forecast of China's cloud gaming industry, the scale of China's cloud gaming market is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2026. The reason why cloud gaming can explode is mainly because it has strengthened the position of the cloud while lowering the threshold of equipment.

Interestingly, when Alibaba released "Shadowless", it also introduced the cloud gaming platform PaaS 1.0. As Alibaba Group Vice President Zhuang Zhuoran said: "Cloud gaming will become the main scenario for personal consumption in the 5G era." This actually hints at the connection between cloud gaming and minimalist terminals.

In summary, although from the perspective of the consumer market, 5G has not brought as great a wave as expected, this is just a misjudgment caused by the fact that early industry players did not grasp the development trend of technology, and it is by no means due to insufficient 5G technology.

Fortunately, as technology gradually matures, the leading players in the industry have also realized that products and content must actively cater to the trend of technological changes in 5G networks, and have begun to work towards the direction of "minimalistic equipment + cloud-based content".

Combined with the market trend of cloud gaming, it is foreseeable that as products and content gradually get on track in the future, 5G technology will surely revolutionize the entire technology industry.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.