China Automobile Dealers Association: Analysis of the National Taxi and Online New Car Market in March 2023

According to estimates, with the high growth of new energy vehicles, China's online taxi market is booming. According to statistics from the China Statistical Yearbook, there are 1.39 million taxis in the country, and the total sales of new online taxis from 2017 to the first quarter of 2023 is 3.31 million. The total number of new online taxis in 6 years has reached 238% of the total number of taxis. This does not include the huge number of private non-operating vehicles that have switched to online taxis.

According to estimates, the number of newly purchased vehicles directly used for online rental in developed regions is generally 5-8 times the number of rental vehicles. Among them, Guangdong accounts for 778%, with 58,031 vehicles rented out and 451,842 vehicles newly purchased for online rental.

Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Sichuan ranked 2-4 each have about 250,000 vehicles, accounting for about 5 times the total number of rental vehicles. However, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Gansu, Ningxia and Qinghai still have relatively few new purchases for direct rental online booking, which is also closely related to the level of economic development and management.

1. Analysis of the total volume of the national online taxi market

The sales volume of online taxis in the sales volume of new passenger cars has fluctuated greatly, but has gradually resumed growth since 2020. The number of online taxis from 2018 to 2019 gradually increased to 600,000 units.

Due to the impact of the epidemic, the number of online taxi orders dropped to 350,000 new cars in 2020, and then rose to 720,000 in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 43%.

The monthly demand for taxis and online ride-hailing services also continues to rise. In 2022, taxis and online ride-hailing services continued to strengthen, but were temporarily affected in October and November, and then surged in December before the subsidy reduction.

At the beginning of 2023, online taxi sales were already higher than the 2019 level, and in February and March they continued to be much higher than the historical highs of the month.

2. Analysis of the new energy taxi online booking market

Since 2020, the sales growth rate of new energy taxi online has been lower than the growth rate of overall new energy, but the growth of new energy taxi online has accelerated in the first quarter of 2023, with a strong performance of 51% growth in March.

As the market gradually recovers after the epidemic, travel demand has gradually become active, and the number of new energy vehicles used for taxis and online ride-hailing has increased significantly, reaching 67,000 units in March, a 50% increase from the historical high in 2022, also reaching a historical high. And now, the sales of new energy vehicles in taxis and online ride-hailing are still growing.

3. The electrification of online taxi services has achieved good results

The trend of electrification of online taxis is becoming increasingly obvious. In recent years, the proportion of new energy taxis has continued to increase.

In 2018, new energy vehicles accounted for only 34% of new taxis. This proportion will reach 84% by 2022. In the first quarter of 2023, it will still reach 82%, especially in December 2022, when it will reach 90%, reflecting the high enthusiasm for new energy vehicles for taxis.

4. Pure electric vehicles become the best choice for online taxi booking

In recent years, the trend of electrification of online taxi booking has become increasingly obvious. In 2017, the proportion of electric vehicles in online taxi booking was 13%, and it will reach 82% by 2022. In 2022, plug-in hybrid vehicles will also reach 1%.

In 2023, plug-in hybrid vehicles will account for 3%, and the overall new energy vehicle share will reach 82%, while hybrid taxis will account for 3%. From 83% of taxis and online ride-hailing vehicles in 2017, fuel vehicles will account for 15% in 2023. The decline in fuel vehicles is relatively fast, showing a trend of rapid electrification of taxis and online ride-hailing vehicles driven by policies.

5. Sales performance of new taxi and online-booking vehicles in cities with purchase restrictions

The proportion of new energy vehicles in taxis and online-hailing vehicles in major cities has reached a relatively high level, especially in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, where basically 100% of taxis and online-hailing vehicles are new energy vehicles.

Among Beijing's online taxi bookings, new energy vehicles accounted for 86% in 2022 and 82% this year.

Hangzhou and Shanghai both reached a ratio of over 90%, and Tianjin also reached a ratio of 70%.

This reflects the electrification trend of online taxi-hailing, which varies greatly from place to place and is relatively weak in small and medium-sized cities.

6. Acceptance of online rental for main models in the first quarter of 2023

The proportion of electrified online taxis varies greatly from place to place. In Beijing, BAIC's electric vehicles account for nearly 90% of the total; in Guangzhou, Aion's proportion is relatively high; in Hangzhou, Aion's proportion is relatively strong, followed by BYD's sales, while Geometry's sales performance is also very good in Hangzhou; in Shanghai, Roewe's electric vehicles account for a relatively strong proportion of online taxis; in Shenzhen, Aion and BYD occupy an absolute dominant position; in Tianjin, Toyota and Aion's proportion of online taxis is relatively high.

7. The contribution of new energy to online taxi services in various regions

Looking at the entire year of 2022, the proportion of online taxi services in the total number of new energy vehicles varies greatly from place to place. In particular, we can see that Guiyang, Dongguan, Changchun and other regions have accounted for more than 25%.

The proportion in cities with purchase restrictions is relatively low. In Beijing, new energy vehicle rental networks account for about 13% of the total new energy vehicles, and in Shanghai, new energy vehicle rental networks account for about 7% of the total new energy vehicles. So overall, the proportion of electrification of taxi networks in various places should be said to have a relatively large contribution.

8. Cumulative sales volume and rental stock of online rental vehicles

Overall, China's online taxi market is booming. According to the China Statistical Yearbook, there are 1.39 million taxis in China, and the total sales of new online taxis from 2017 to the first quarter of 2023 is 3.31 million. The total number of new online taxis in 6 years has reached 238% of the total number of taxis. This does not include the huge number of private non-operating vehicles that have switched to online taxis.

The proportion of new online-ordered taxis in the total number of taxis varies greatly from place to place, ranging from 82% to 957%. Hainan has the highest proportion of new online-ordered taxis in the total number of taxis, with 6,333 taxis in Hainan. In the past six years, the number of new online-ordered taxis has reached 60,636, accounting for 957%.

In developed regions, the number of new purchases directly used for online rental is generally 5-8 times the number of rental vehicles. Among them, Guangdong accounts for 778%, with 58,031 rental vehicles and 451,842 new purchases directly used for online rental.

Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Sichuan, ranked 2nd to 4th, each have about 250,000 units, accounting for about 5 times.

However, there are relatively few new taxis purchased directly for online booking in Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, etc. It is estimated that most private cars have switched to online booking, or there is no demand for online booking.