Musk predicts that the AI ​​industry will shift from silicon shortage to electricity shortage, and China will be the biggest winner?

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, the global technology community is experiencing an unprecedented computing power competition in the face of the next biggest change in human society. However, against this background, Elon Musk predicted that the AI ​​industry will change from silicon shortage to electricity shortage in the future, which has sparked heated discussions. Musk's prediction not only reveals the explosive growth of AI computing power demand, but also implies that power supply may become a new bottleneck restricting the development of AI.

Silicon is the basic material of modern electronic devices, and represents the current great demand for computing power in artificial intelligence. Some people even call AI "silicon-based life", corresponding to the carbon-based organic life form on Earth. The importance of computing power to artificial intelligence is self-evident. The competition among major companies for high-performance computing chips and the soaring stock price of Nvidia are all due to this.

But the hunger for computing power is more about the demand for computing technology. In fact, silicon is the second most abundant element in the earth's crust, second only to oxygen, accounting for nearly 28%. More than 90% of the earth's crust is composed of silicate minerals. The shackles of computing power will surely be broken by the evolution of technology.

However, as Musk predicted, after breaking through the computing power bottleneck, the AI ​​industry will face a more severe challenge in the future - power shortage. The reason for the power shortage is that the growth of AI computing power has increased the demand for electricity exponentially. The power consumption of infrastructure such as data centers, cloud computing platforms, and edge computing nodes is huge, and these infrastructures are the cornerstones supporting AI applications. With the widespread application of AI technology, from self-driving cars to smart cities, from smart manufacturing to telemedicine, all of them have put forward higher requirements for power supply.

This is indeed the case. Last year, The Economist published an article stating that high-performance computing facilities, including supercomputers, are becoming major consumers of energy. It is expected that by 2025, the computing industry's electricity consumption will surpass that of major energy consumers such as industry.

Compared with general IDCs (Internet data centers), artificial intelligence consumes more energy. Data shows that training GPT-3 consumes 1,287MWh (megawatt hours), which is equivalent to emitting 552 tons of carbon.

AlphaGo, which brought the concept of artificial intelligence to the public, completely defeated humans in the game of Go, but its energy consumption was equivalent to that of 12,760 human brains working together. It has to be admitted that biological brains that have evolved over billions of years are indeed far more energy-efficient than human creations. From this perspective, the setting of "The Matrix" that feeds humans to obtain the creativity of human brain nerves seems reasonable.

In this context, computing power's demand for energy is also becoming more prominent. According to the IEA (International Energy Agency) 2024 Electricity Report, global electricity demand experienced a substantial increase in 2023. And it is expected that in the next three years (including 2024), global electricity demand will grow at a faster rate.

The report points out that electricity consumption in data centers, artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency industries may double by 2026. The rapid development of these high-tech and digital fields has a significant impact on the demand for electricity, further driving the growth of global electricity consumption.

The report believes that from the perspective of energy structure, clean electricity supply will play an important role in meeting the growth of global electricity demand. It is expected that by 2026, clean electricity will meet all global demand growth. At the same time, the power generation of low-emission energy will break the record and meet all global demand growth in the next three years. This shows the world's positive efforts in energy transformation and reducing carbon emissions.

In addition, the development of renewable energy is also worth paying attention to. It is expected that by the beginning of 2025, renewable energy will exceed coal and account for more than one-third of the world's total power generation. This shows the important position of renewable energy in the global energy structure and its rapid growth trend.

In this context, China's advantages in power supply are particularly important. China has the world's largest power market, and its power generation capacity, power grid construction and power transmission technology are all at the world's leading level. Whether it is ultra-high voltage transmission technology or the construction of smart grids, China is at the forefront of the world. The improvement of these infrastructures not only ensures the stable supply of electricity, but also provides the possibility for efficient use and intelligent management of electricity.

In addition, China's development in the field of renewable energy is also remarkable. The Chinese government actively promotes the development of clean energy such as solar energy and wind energy, and is committed to reducing dependence on fossil fuels and reducing carbon emissions. This not only helps alleviate global climate change issues, but also provides the AI ​​industry with cleaner and more efficient power resources.

However, the problem of power shortage is widespread. The global power supply is tight, especially in developing countries. The lack of power infrastructure has become an important factor restricting the development of AI. Therefore, countries around the world need to work together to increase investment in power infrastructure and promote the optimization and upgrading of energy structure to cope with the huge demand for power in the future AI computing power.

In summary, although Musk's "power shortage" prediction may be somewhat exaggerated, it does remind us that with the rapid development of science and technology, the stability and sustainability of power supply will become a constraint. China's advantages in power supply provide a solid foundation for the development of the artificial intelligence industry, and China's development prospects in the field of artificial intelligence are bright. Through continuous technological innovation, industrial upgrading and international cooperation, China is expected to play a more important role in the global AI competition and contribute Chinese wisdom and solutions to the progress of human society.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.