What is the situation with mobile phone production capacity?
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Looking at all the so-called domestic products in 2014, the situation of being well-received but not popular is common. Luo Yonghao really needs to think of a solution. --Andyson Production capacity is the biggest obstacle that all new mobile phone manufacturers encounter after overcoming R&D, sales and production. Often when the production capacity of mobile phones cannot keep up, manufacturers have to bear very great pressure, including doubts and even attacks from consumers and the media. Smartisan, which promised to officially sell its products on July 8, is under such pressure. The origin is a Weibo post by Luo Yonghao, in which he said that the daily shipment volume of Smartsian T1 is 1,000 units, which means that the current maximum production volume of Luo Yonghao's foundry is 1,000 units/day. According to Luo Yonghao's Weibo post on May 25, the number of orders for Smartisan T1 had reached 60,000 at that time. And according to the production speed of 1,000 mobile phones per day, even if calculated based on the order volume at that time, users who pre-ordered Smartsian T1 would have to wait until at least September to get the machine if they ordered it later. Of course, Luo Yonghao explained on Weibo that the production capacity will continue to increase, reaching 1,800 units in two weeks, and 45,000 Smartisan T1s are expected to be produced in July. This explains the three most important factors affecting mobile phone production capacity: production capacity estimation, material preparation, and worker scheduling. "Material preparation" refers to the components needed for mobile phone production. Mobile phone manufacturers need to place orders with the supply chain three months in advance, and the lack of any component will cause the production line to be unable to operate. The rest is production. Mobile phone manufacturers need to negotiate with the factory on the delivery date and arrange the workers' schedule, but the workers' schedule is mainly dominated by the factory. As for the yield rate, skilled workers, mature managers and smooth supply chains are required. What kind of factors affect the production capacity of Smartisan T1? According to Luo Yonghao's explanation on Weibo, it is because "the yield rate on the production line is low." As for the issue of yield rate, Andyson on Weibo made a rough estimate and believed that the yield rate of Smartisan T1 was 72%. On Zhihu, Yufei Han, who used to be a project manager at Sony, explained the problem of low yield rate on the Smartisan T1 production line based on his work experience: 1. About design capacity (assuming the yield rate meets the standard) According to my previous experience, the bottleneck of capacity is generally not in assembly, that is, Foxconn. Design capacity can usually be determined 2~3 builds before mass production. According to the current mobile phone structure on the market, I am considered slow. Generally speaking, the design capacity is 3k~5k per day, and 1.5k~2.5k per shift (Apple alone, according to Foxconn, Apple never cares about money or capacity). Therefore, Luo's statement that the capacity problem is concentrated on the yield rate is credible. As I said just now, assembly capacity is not a problem. It is possible that the capacity problem lies with the supplier, which is also closely related to the yield rate. Let me talk about it in detail below. 2. About materials. Is it possible that the supplier cannot send out materials due to insufficient capacity? Is it possible that the supplier cannot send out materials because of the low yield rate of material production? Is the low yield rate of material production due to design problems? You should know that the yield rate of a certain material supplier in my country is less than 50% because of its weird design. Think about how many materials are in a mobile phone? More than a hundred, and any material with problems cannot be produced. Lao Luo said that they have strict requirements on quality. You should know that the biggest quality problem can be found at once, and the easier to solve is the appearance problem. The metal frame and the glass shell of the hammer, I don’t say, tsk tsk, are too easy to scratch. There are also complex gap problems. If it is not a very professional and experienced Mechanical R&D, it is not so easy to solve~ Manufacturers are in a hurry to place orders, and the material yield rate is low, what should they do? Send rotten materials to Foxconn! Foxconn took the materials and put them online, and made a bad one, who can be blamed? Why do I say that the appearance problem (ME) is the most serious? To be honest, if it is an electronic problem, it has reached this juncture, and it is basically a fantasy to solve it. It’s not impossible. You can change the mold, rework the materials, and sort, but how much will it cost? I'm afraid Mr. Luo doesn't know how much money it will cost. It will cost tens of millions! How much financing did Hammer raise? Making hardware is not like making software. The products are genuine and worth the money. An LCD costs more than 200 yuan, a shell costs more than 100 yuan, and a board costs more than 500 yuan. I won't say more. My heart is bleeding. 3. About quality standards Yes, big manufacturers around the world, such as Ni, have their own quality standards. Apple has the highest quality standard in the industry. My colleague went to Apple's supplier and lived a life worse than death. My colleague went to Apple to work as SQM, and he was happy and painful. I think that with Mr. Luo's ambition, he will not use Foxconn's own standards. According to what I said above, if the material itself cannot be made good due to design problems, what can you do to Foxconn? It's nothing more than reducing the production capacity on the production line, working slower, checking more carefully, and repairing more times. Assembly is done by people, and it is impossible not to make mistakes. Foxconn is already professional enough. Ni will make mistakes in design problems, Samsung will make mistakes, and I think Hammer will make more mistakes. Another anonymous user who claimed to be a Foxconn Party A engineer answered what problems the foundry would encounter when producing mobile phones, which would affect the yield rate (for ease of understanding, the following brackets are Chinese comments) (1) Different machines are adapted to different hardware. You need to train the production line workers, right? No time required? (2) Different machines need to set up different workstations according to the difficulty of assembly. This requires multiple coordination, calculations and experiments between Party A and Party B. No time required? (3) Different machines require different test environments. The same environment and different network segments may cause strange problems. The same solution may cause different problems at different times and temperatures. Every new project needs to be studied and tested repeatedly. No time required? (4) Including the negotiation, planning and buying of suppliers in the front end, procurement, production and testing in the middle, and logistics and service at the end, do you think Foxconn can handle it all? Startup companies don’t need time to adapt and learn? (5) Apple's hundreds of thousands of IPs (iPhone) are the result of years of cooperation and years of experience in laying out production lines. Do you think a startup company would use so many production lines at once like Apple? This production capacity is not bad. As for the supply chain, almost no mobile phone companies are willing to talk about this issue because they regard this as the most important asset of the company and the level is equivalent to commercial secrets, so there are not many reports on the mobile phone supply chain. "First Financial Weekly" once reported on how Xiaomi manages its supply chain. The following excerpts of several key paragraphs will help you understand how mobile phones are produced. (1) Weekly production planning meeting: Lei Jun, Lin Bin, Li Wanqiang, and Zhou Guangping get together every week to hold a small production meeting. The time of this meeting is not fixed, usually no more than half an hour, but it is very important. The core is to determine the order volume three months later. ... They did not create a complex mathematical model, and the meeting used only a whiteboard that could be written on at any time. The basis for the prediction is the sales volume of the week, the number of pre-order purchases, Baidu Index, the number of forum posts, the popularity of Weibo topics, the price of Xiaomi sold by scalpers, and other indices. On the afternoon of the day of the small meeting, the production schedule signed by Lei Jun will be sent to Xiaomi's supply chain department. (2) Cultivating relationships with suppliers: When making Xiaomi 2, Xiaomi sent 6 engineers to Qualcomm's headquarters in San Diego's R&D center 6 months before Qualcomm released the Snapdragon APQ8064 chip to debug the chip with Qualcomm engineers. This positive attitude has a positive effect on cooperation. Xiaomi gradually won the trust of Qualcomm in its cooperation with Qualcomm, and as its own sales continued to increase, this cooperation began to become closer. Xiaomi 2 later became the first model to use Qualcomm's 8064 chip. Qualcomm's first batch of 8064 chips produced 1 million pieces, half of which were used in Mi 2 and the other half were used in Google Nexus 4 produced by LG. The first release of the chip means that the performance is stable enough to start mass production, but it takes 3 to 4 months of capacity ramp-up from release to actual mass production. (3) The impact of insufficient upstream production capacity on mobile phone shipments: The high concentration of upstream suppliers has caused Xiaomi 2 to be out of stock since its release last year. The main reason is that the forecast Qualcomm gave to upstream wafer factories six months ago was much lower than the market demand. The wafer factories did not pay attention to the complexity of the 28-nanometer process and put it into production late, which eventually caused a global shortage of 28-nanometer chips at the end of 2012. For mobile phone companies, "design" is face, and "supply chain" is the foundation; if there is face but no foundation, there will be a big gap between the final product and the release, or even the product cannot be produced, and the business is not worth doing; if there is foundation but no face, after the product is produced, they do not know how to find customers for it, which is a loss. In addition to excellent design, the quality of the product must also be supported by a strong supply chain. As long as you have watched "God of Sushi", it is not difficult to understand the meaning of this sentence. At the age of 89, Jiro Ono still runs a sushi restaurant in Tokyo. He is the world's oldest Michelin three-star chef. In the process of making sushi, the requirements are very strict, even harsh. For example, the octopus needs to be massaged for 40 minutes to soften it before it can be sliced; a lot of pressure needs to be applied when cooking rice, and the lid is so heavy that it takes two people to lift it. Apprentices have to learn to fry eggs for 10 years. Doesn't this feel very similar to the attitude of many manufacturers pursuing craftsmanship now? However, in addition to the requirements for sushi making processes and methods, he also attaches great importance to the source of raw materials, that is, the relationship with suppliers. The film review "All great chefs in "Sushi God" are similar" records: The supplier and his sushi restaurant have long-term cooperation and established an absolute trust relationship. Professional tuna suppliers only supply tuna, and shrimp suppliers only sell shrimp. Everyone is an expert in their respective fields. Rice vendor Hiromichi said that the ingredients provide a kind of trust. "Some rice is only provided to Jiro's store because only he knows how to cook it." The shrimp vendor introduced that sometimes there are only 3 kilograms of wild shrimp in the entire market, and all of them will be supplied to Jiro's store: "Good things are limited and will only be left to the best people." As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity. |
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