Suddenly, young people have stopped changing their mobile phones. Where will the future of mobile phone manufacturers go?

In 2021, the mobile phone industry has been booming in recent years. The global shipments of 1.3548 billion units have approached the level of 2019, an increase of 5.7% compared with the previous year. However, in 2022, the situation suddenly took a sharp turn for the worse. According to data released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in February this year, domestic mobile phone sales were 14.77 million units, a year-on-year drop of 30%, and even more "halved" compared with 32.74 million units in January.

What is more noteworthy is that Apple's shipments only fell by 4%. Considering Samsung's tiny share in China, it can be concluded that this decline mainly came from domestic brands. Well-known analyst Ming-Chi Kuo also revealed that due to the decline in demand, Chinese mobile phone brands have cut orders for 170 million mobile phones, equivalent to 20% of the original plan. Moreover, this is likely just the beginning. If consumer demand cannot recover quickly, the "order cuts" will be even more severe.

Downstream mobile phone sales were also quickly affected. Some media visited offline mobile phone stores in Gansu, Hubei and other places, and many operators said that mobile phone sales and profits have declined significantly in recent years. Some stores have developed accessories, after-sales, broadband services and other businesses, while some smaller stores have had to change business or close down.

It is an indisputable fact that the epidemic has caused a decline in both manufacturers' production capacity and consumers' willingness to buy. The depression of the mobile phone industry is certainly closely related to this. However, in 2017-2019, before the outbreak of the epidemic, global mobile phone shipments had already declined for three consecutive years. Therefore, it is obviously unrealistic to simply attribute the current situation of the industry to the epidemic and hope that everything will return to normal after the epidemic ends.

Why are consumers reluctant to change their mobile phones?

Young people, as the main consumer group of mobile phones, are naturally regarded as the "culprit" of the decline in mobile phone sales. Generally speaking, young people are willing to buy more expensive mobile phones and change their phones more frequently. Since the iPhone 4 series became a big hit in China, mobile phones have become "New Year's goods" among consumers, and changing phones once a year has become the norm for many people. When buying a mobile phone on Apple's official website, you can see the words "Join the iPhone Annual Renewal Plan" next to the Apple Care+ service. Some video creators have also made offline phone replacements a reserved program every year.

But nowadays, young people’s willingness to change their phones has dropped significantly. In March this year, a topic called “How long have you not changed your phone?” appeared on the hot search list. Many people said that they have used their phones for three or four years. If there is a problem, they will repair it. If the battery life decreases, they will replace the battery. Apart from the problem of insufficient capacity, they can’t think of many reasons to change their phones.

Putting aside all the objective external factors, the core reason for the decline in mobile phone sales is the significant decline in product strength.

It must be noted that today's mobile phones seem to be increasingly lacking in novelty. It's not that manufacturers haven't tried new gimmicks, but whether it's 5G or folding screens, the stimulating effect on consumers is not as good as imagined. In particular, 5G, which has been strongly promoted for many years, still lacks a "killer" application on the consumer side. In January this year, there was even a decline in 5G mobile phone sales while an increase in 4G mobile phone sales. Therefore, in addition to the superficial "innovation", mobile phone manufacturers can only continue to follow the old path of "rolled imaging" that has continued for more than a decade.

In terms of basic experience, many mobile phones today are not satisfactory. Chip performance is one aspect, but after all, the performance of Qualcomm chips in the past two years has been a commonplace topic, and it is meaningless to talk more about its drag on major manufacturers. Apart from this "common denominator", major manufacturers themselves also have their own shortcomings.

The system that Xiaomi once took pride in has become a hindrance to its further progress in the past two years. Every time a new version of MIUI is released, videos showing bugs in different styles will appear on video websites. In the past two years, the brothers vivo and OPPO have successively released products equipped with self-developed imaging chips, but they have suffered from defects such as frame drops and flickering in video shooting. Combined with their high selling prices, it is still difficult to get rid of the label of "high price and low configuration"; Huawei's sanctions are certainly worthy of sympathy, but the quality of its mobile phones is not as good as before, but it still maintains a relatively high price, which really discourages many consumers who want to express their support with practical actions.

Even for Apple, the long-complained problems such as high refresh rate and battery life have not shown signs of being solved until 2021, and the problems such as heat dissipation, signal, ghosting, etc. that will have a major impact on daily use have not even received an official positive response so far. Many people think that Apple is fully capable of solving these problems, but under the "contrast with its peers", this seems "possible but unnecessary." But from the perspective of consumers, it is natural to "find faults" with merchants. Considering the merchants everywhere will only make them more unscrupulous. As an Apple user for many years, I sincerely hope that Apple has not found a solution to these problems for the time being and is working hard for it.

Most of these problems are so serious that they are unacceptable regardless of the selling price. It is a natural result that consumers are increasingly unwilling to pay for mobile phones.

Up, down, left, and right, the Eight Immortals Crossing the Sea

The problems existing in the mobile phone industry are already obvious, and different manufacturers have also given their own ideas for breaking through.

Looking up, Apple's relatively stable performance proves that high-end products still have a strong appeal to users. Therefore, Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, Honor and other brands have launched products in the 5,000 yuan or even higher price range in recent years. It is undeniable that these products still have obvious shortcomings, but as long as these brands do not regard "high-end" as a marketing gimmick, but continue to make breakthroughs in texture, performance, imaging and other aspects, and make progress bit by bit, then naturally people will be more willing to pay for them.

Downward, sinking and market segmentation are also worth noting. Industry analysts said that many mobile phone stores are currently funded by dealers, so offline expansion does not require too much cost for mobile phone products. By expanding in the sinking market on a large scale and opening up the market with some cost-effective mobile phones, it can also help the sales of mobile phone brands and the creation of brand image.

The niche market was once disdained by many people, but in this era of shrinking cakes, being able to get a bigger bite may be of great help to manufacturers. Taking gaming phones as an example, Xiaomi-funded Black Shark and Nubia's Red Magic have defined themselves as pure gaming phone brands. The rapidly developing vivo sub-brand iQOO also targeted the gaming track at the beginning of its establishment. According to statistics released by Newzoo, the global mobile game market size has reached 90.7 billion in 2021, which is bound to drive gaming phones.

Many people have regarded the market segmentation as "pseudo-demand", but in their eyes, it is more like "pseudo-supply". Take a certain "e-sports mobile phone" launched this year as an example. It has such a name, but even running games with low load such as "Honor of Kings" has to force the resolution to be reduced. Naturally, consumers can only cry out that they have been deceived. This is just a microcosm of the market segmentation. Many manufacturers are still hesitant about this market. They want to highlight the characteristics while also wanting to be stable. The final product can only be a four-legged beast with insufficient performance compared to the top and low cost performance compared to the bottom.

Therefore, since the importance of market segments has become increasingly prominent, manufacturers should show greater courage. If they want to make gaming phones, they should appropriately sacrifice photography, especially the selfie function, and invest more resources in frame rate, heat dissipation and other aspects. If they want to make camera phones, there is no need to over-promote how powerful the product's chip is. It is more practical to put an extra imaging chip and develop more photography algorithms.

Finally, in addition to finding breakthroughs in the mobile phone field, the technology industry also has many development opportunities. Huawei has gradually expanded from communications and mobile phones to computers, smart homes, displays, acoustics and even auto parts. Xiaomi has announced its plans to build cars, and Apple has made frequent moves in the AR field. Entering a new track is naturally a major test for these companies, but once they successfully cross this threshold, it will be a huge improvement in their overall competitiveness.

After more than a decade of rapid development, the smartphone industry has entered a cold winter. In a rapidly changing environment, even giants like Apple cannot guarantee that they can always sit on the throne. Therefore, in the next period of time, the theme of mobile phone manufacturers will definitely be to find a way out. Perhaps, whoever launches a radically designed product first, whoever makes the most crazy-looking changes first, will have the hope of becoming the next leader in the industry.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.