Why are you not optimistic about the iPhone returning to 4 inches?

"The next generation iPhone will launch a 4-inch version." This news came out of nowhere due to the revelations of various foreign media. Well, let's just believe that this is a fact that "there is a picture and there is truth."

I am not optimistic about the 4-inch iPhone, at least if Apple chooses the 4-inch iPhone as its next-generation flagship product.

Of course, if Apple launched the 4-inch iPhone just to provide a niche product for some people who regard Jobs as God and believe that his every word is an oracle, or if the 4-inch iPhone is regarded as a tribute to Jobs's statement "I don't think anyone likes large-screen phones", I think the 4-inch iPhone still has some value - although 4 inches is 0.5 inches more than the 3.5 inches in Jobs' oracle.

But it is obvious that as a world-class company, Apple and the 4-inch iPhone, as a mass consumer product, cannot have such a singular strategic position.

1. So, what are the shortcomings of the 4-inch iPhone?

First, do people really dislike large-screen phones? Not necessarily. Take myself as an example. I have used several phones. The first one was the iPhone 4S, which can be said to be a milestone for the iPhone. After losing this phone, I used a 4.7-inch Android phone for a while. When I used someone else's iPhone 4S, I obviously felt uncomfortable in various ways - the screen was too small... How many people would turn to small-screen phones after using large-screen phones? I don't think there are many. Maybe it's because I am ignorant! What's more, according to media reports, the configuration of the 4-inch iPhone will be the same as that of the iPhone 6. Will such a product really be competitive?

Secondly, the 4-inch iPhone has no price advantage! According to the media reports with pictures and facts, the most common headline is "iPhone will be as low as 100 US dollars". If the exchange rate is 1:8, 100 US dollars is 800 yuan, which is really a good deal for a Redmi... If you are dreaming about something like this, I advise you to go home and take a shower!

The actual situation is that the contract price of a 4-inch iPhone may be between $100 and $150. Look carefully, the contract price! What is the contract price of the iPhone 6? $199. This means that the 4-inch iPhone may be 25% to 50% lower than the iPhone 6. The best-selling and most cost-effective iPhone 6 64G is priced at 6088 in China. So, the 4-inch iPhone will cost around 3100 to 4500. Is the iPhone using such a high price to seize the low-end market and create a nightmare for Android phones? You are overthinking!

2. Why does Apple still want to release a 4-inch iPhone?

If this is the case, why does Apple still release a 4-inch iPhone? Is it really because large-screen phones do not meet the needs of the European and American markets, and Apple specifically launched a 4-inch version to please them?

I have never been abroad and I don’t have any foreign friends, so I don’t know, but we can look at two sets of data:

According to Fiksu data, in the first weekend after the new iPhone was launched, iPhone 6 accounted for 1.82% of all iPhones sold, and iPhone 6 Plus accounted for 0.28%. This means that the sales ratio of iPhone 6 to iPhone 6 Plus is 6.5:1.

According to Chitika data, after the iPhone 6/6 Plus was officially launched in North America, from the time of release to the 55th hour when statistics were completed, the traffic share of iPhone 6 reached 7.5 times that of iPhone 6 Plus.

You can see the problem! Even if the traffic counted by Chitika is the sales volume, the iPhone 6 is only 7.5 times that of the iPhone 6 Plus in the North American market, while the global figure is 6.5. You should know that Chitika only counts the traffic. The iPhone 6 is Apple's flagship model. It is normal for people to see more iPhone 6 than iPhone 6 Plus when checking messages, not to mention that Plus is more expensive. Apple's official statement is that "iPhone 6 Plus has far exceeded expectations in the Asian market", but it does not say that Europeans and Americans like iPhone 6 more than iPhone 6 Plus than Asians.

In fact, the fundamental reason why Apple wants to launch a 4-inch version of the iPhone is that the difficulty of technological innovation is far beyond imagination. Before it can come up with more impactful innovative technologies, if Apple wants to maintain its prosperity, it will inevitably fall into Nokia's classic shell-changing development routine.

We know that the emergence of the iPhone brought about an industrial revolution in the mobile phone industry, and even defeated two former mobile phone giants, Moto and Nokia. Jobs is also considered to have redefined the mobile phone. However, if the mobile phone redefined by Jobs wants to be defined again, how long will it take? We dare not imagine it. We only know that there have been only four industrial revolutions in history, and each time span was very long.

Therefore, after the iPhone shocked the entire mobile phone industry with its "only one button" feature, the subsequent developments have been very limited in terms of technological innovation - or far from the subversive feeling brought by the first time. After the first generation of iPhone, successive generations of iPhone actually benefited more from the "brand effect". Starting from technological innovation to form brand accumulation and maintain subsequent prosperity is an inevitable development law for every company, and Apple is no exception.

3. What is the biggest advantage of iPhone now?

I think the iPhone may have only two advantages now. The first is the iOS system. This seemingly closed system can bring us an incredible user experience. The second is the iPhone brand. The iPhone has inevitably become a symbol of status and can even be regarded as a cheap "luxury product". This is why, while the user experience of Android phones is constantly being optimized to satisfy most users, the iPhone can continue to tap into the core strength of new users.

Finally, let me make a prediction. For a long time in the future, the iPhone will be stuck in the bottleneck of innovation and will be further and further away from bringing us surprises. Moreover, each generation of iPhone will try its best to make more articles around size, screen, hardware parameters, which many people think only Android phones can compare like this, or to put it bluntly, it is a gimmick!

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.